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TdF ’17, Stages 16-18: The Alpine Hike
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TdF ’17, Stages 14-15: Something for Le Weekend, monsieur?
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gerry12ie



Joined: 08 Jul 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:31 pm    Post subject: TdF ’17, Stages 14-15: Something for Le Weekend, monsieur?  Reply with quote

Stage 14 - Blagnac - Rodez

When the stage finished here in 2013 GVA and Sagan gapped the GC contenders, so there may be a small handful of seconds available for someone prepared to commit...



Stage 15 - Laissac-Sévérac l'Église / Le Puy-en-Velay

These medium mountain stages can often have more impact than the big climbs.  Now that a race seems to have broken out, this might put someone in or out of the frame...


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Nolte



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With cataldo and fuglsang's abandonments, aru seems to be lacking in support.

Grivko was the penultimate finisher today, those Kazakh riders apart from Andrey zeits don't look too good. Lutsenko couldn't stay in the 15'41 group of 81 riders (place 64 to 144)

So aru is down to basically as his best support zeits and valgren and valgren and valgren is more rouleur than a climber. Both ag2r and sky have strong teams though sky with 2 in the top 5 now can take this to their advantage.

I was thinking these two stages will be breakaways (and maybe Tuesday too) but particularly on Sunday, sky and ag2r can isolate aru. The start on Sunday with cat 1 at 28.5km could serve this purpose.

Tomorrow I see breakaway

So guys get fping those sprinters :p
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Boogerd_Fan



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rodez is for sunweb to destroy the pack and distance Kittel before the finish for Matthews to close gap on green jersey.

Sunday could be tasty... but ag2r (and dare I say Sky) need to make their numbers count. Even quickstep could do something for Martin on that route.
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HuwB



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder if Sky have finally learned their lesson about profiles like Sunday's and go really hard on that every early first cat?
Is it possible that they will try for a reversal their fortunes of Formigal?
There is preciously few opportunities remaining in the race besides the two Alpine stages.
It will either be a sweet stage or just another breakaway bonanza.
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ullrichfan



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That final Cat 1 on Sunday looks like it could rip things open - an AG2R multi-pronged attack and Bardet balls-out descent?
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HuwB



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ullrichfan wrote:
That final Cat 1 on Sunday looks like it could rip things open - an AG2R multi-pronged attack and Bardet balls-out descent?


I was also thinking that they might try to rip things up on the first, first cat, in order to isolate Aru again. Or, at least put whoever Astana have left under serve pressure to chase for the whole stage, a la Formigal.

It does seem a stage profile ripe with options.

Today, could hold a potential banana skin, too.



While not too favourable in the final kms, much of the stage, which is exposed in places, will have a straight crosswind.
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Boogerd_Fan



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe Dan Martin can get a few seconds if there are splits on that final kick?
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Fontfroide



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Location: Herault, France

PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My wife said it is boring and left fifteen minutes ago.  Might call her down for the last five k, but other than the inviting roads and gorges and hills, having a five rider break never more than a couple minutes away leaves little to the imagination.  Still the riders create the course.  Even if it is only a short hill.  We wait.

I feel good about not neglecting EBH, even if he does not win.  Wonder why I came to have affection for a topnotch, second rate, semi-all around rider, with no communications skills.  Allez Ed.

Quite special church at Rodez, non?  I suppose all this is a "little known" part of France, but it I know it a bit, as it is close.  Quite of few of my Anglo-immigrant neighbours go off to Albi and Rodez for a weekend away or a night away.
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Last edited by Fontfroide on Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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gerry12ie



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gerry said it was boring an hour ago and fell asleep.  Looks like I mistimed my awakening - there was easily another half an hour to be had...
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Biosphere
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matthews or Van Avermaet
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Someone give a shout out, now is the time.
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Biosphere wrote:
Matthews or Van Avermaet


Or EBH????
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gerry12ie



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So are they gaps, or commissaire gaps? Very Happy

Yep, they are gaps alright - could be 12 seconds or so?
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Last edited by gerry12ie on Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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mazda



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Huge gaps  Very Happy
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Froome up front, no gap, Aru lost at the back,lost jersey.  How could he do that?  Be so far back I mean.

I note that while EBH did not win, since he is not as strong as Matthews, he did well, bless his Norwegian Soul.
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gerry12ie



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 59:52:09
2 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:00:19
3 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:00:23
4 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac 0:00:29
5 Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky 0:01:17
6 Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors 0:01:26
7 Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott 0:02:02
8 Nairo Quintana (Col) Movistar Team 0:02:22
9 Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates 0:05:09
10 Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo 0:05:37
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Biosphere
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did not expect as much as a 19' second advantage for Froome after that.
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HuwB



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Froome owes Kwiatkowski big time for this Tour.
Every time things get crucial, he's putting in a performance.

I am wondering whether the relative weakness of Aru's team is the reason he was so badly positioned?
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gerry12ie



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aye, Flower has so far played as big a part this year as Poels did last year.

I don't think Aru will be overly pissed at losing the race lead, although 19 seconds is more than he would have wanted to concede on a stage that shouldn't have held too much menace for him.
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Boogerd_Fan



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aru has successfully avoided blowing his whole team up at the start of tomorrow's stage. But 19s swing is a lot. But yeah, at least he won't be isolated and forced into taking pulls for 100km tomorrow.

I'm not too convinced by the 4s difference between Froome/Martin and Benoit/Bardet in 10th/11th.

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