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Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus secon
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forearms van petegem



Joined: 28 May 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:50 am    Post subject: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus secon Reply with quote

2007 Tour

Levi + 12 bonus - 20 second penalty = 8 seconds worse off.
Contador + 20 + 8 bonus = 28 seconds better off.

difference = 36 seconds

1 Alberto Contador Velasco          91.00.26
2 Cadel Evans                                   0.23
3 Levi Leipheimer                               0.31

Evans picked up 8 bonus seconds.

This Vuelta, Leipheimer wins by 2 seconds sans bonus seconds.


Now, lets remember, if Contador had to work for Levi, chances are in might be a further 60 seconds in Levi's favour. Levi does this "kind of" work fo Contador, he never blows himself up or really hurts his chances. Levi would be better off wheelsucking tho, at his threshold. If Contador worked for Levi, the difference would be stark. As it is, Contador is up 46 seconds, and only bonus seconds.

Food for thought.
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Mrs John Murphy



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was only a 10 second penalty he received.
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forearms van petegem



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoulda been 20 :p
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Mrs John Murphy



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Should have been kicked out.
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Slapshot 3
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 7:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doesn't matter - play the rules to win......I'd rather have Berto as a winner that Leipwhiner
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chardon



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Third major Tour win will change my life, says Contador

"It's Spanish cycling's best moment ever," Contador said. "But it's not due to [b]anything special, it just happens to be an exceptional generation of riders."

Shut up, Bertie.  It's exclusive... Laughing

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=cycling&id=3599232
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Runitout



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:28 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

forearms van petegem wrote:
2007 Tour

Levi + 12 bonus - 20 second penalty = 8 seconds worse off.
Contador + 20 + 8 bonus = 28 seconds better off.

difference = 36 seconds

1 Alberto Contador Velasco          91.00.26
2 Cadel Evans                                   0.23
3 Levi Leipheimer                               0.31

Evans picked up 8 bonus seconds.

This Vuelta, Leipheimer wins by 2 seconds sans bonus seconds.


Now, lets remember, if Contador had to work for Levi, chances are in might be a further 60 seconds in Levi's favour. Levi does this "kind of" work fo Contador, he never blows himself up or really hurts his chances. Levi would be better off wheelsucking tho, at his threshold. If Contador worked for Levi, the difference would be stark. As it is, Contador is up 46 seconds, and only bonus seconds.

Food for thought.


Big difference between getting rid of bonus seconds and not penalising a rider for getting a lift on the team car when he is dropped.  I thought that effort of Leipheimer's was absolutely disgraceful.

It does make a mockery of the argument that Dertie is the outstanding rider of his generation when he can barely beat wheelsucker, though.
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cyclingtv



Joined: 22 May 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

if bertie destroyed the field.. rumors of doping might start Rolling Eyes
hog's a mastermind.. remembering those lala's wins.. brilliant..
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Bro Deal



Joined: 03 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:43 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Runitout wrote:

It does make a mockery of the argument that Dertie is the outstanding rider of his generation when he can barely beat wheelsucker, though.


Leipwhiner is not the same rider he was pre 2007.  He time trials and climbs much better.  Funny how he keeps getting better at an age when he should be getting slower..

Who else has the combination of time trialing and climbing that Contador has?  He may not be brilliant in both disciplines, but he is pretty damned good.  The riders who are better climbers don't time trial as well, and the riders who are better time trialers don't climb as well.  That is a pretty good situation to be in.
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Runitout



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:52 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Bro Deal wrote:
Runitout wrote:

It does make a mockery of the argument that Dertie is the outstanding rider of his generation when he can barely beat wheelsucker, though.


Leipwhiner is not the same rider he was pre 2007.  He time trials and climbs much better.  Funny how he keeps getting better at an age when he should be getting slower..

Who else has the combination of time trialing and climbing that Contador has?  He may not be brilliant in both disciplines, but he is pretty damned good.  The riders who are better climbers don't time trial as well, and the riders who are better time trialers don't climb as well.  That is a pretty good situation to be in.


You're dead on.

Wheelsucker is much, much better than he was at Rabobank.  Must be the Hogfather looking him in the eye with his steely gaze and yelling, "C'mon!"  at just the right time from the team car.  And letting him scab a lift from the team car when it all gets too hard.

As for Dertie - the only rider with similar qualities is... wait for it... Evans!  Wheelsucker Mk II.  The difference is, Dertie is a more aggressive and attacking climber - not sure if that's because he has the acceleration that Evans does not, or merely a more courageous mindset.  After the Tour, I'm beginning the think the latter.

But compared to last year, Evans lost a bit in TTing - and compared to earlier in the year, he lost a bit with his climbing.  It's the difference between on one hand, beating everyone save for Vino in the long TT and winning up Ventoux - and on the other, sucking wheels like his middle name is Levi.

Dertie doesn't win by much, but he makes a good habit of winning - it's a sign of a man not afraid to risk losing to gain a victory.  Others could profit from his example.
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Mrs John Murphy



Joined: 18 Aug 2007
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Location: Stepping on Cadel's dog

PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The other difference is that while Contador and LL have a team to tow them along and blow their rivals out the back, Evans has exactly no team mates.

Maybe Evans and LL are more defensive because they have had very very bad days in their careers when they have attacked and it has all gone tits up, Contador post 2007 not had a really bad day in a GT. Not once has he had a Valverde style fuck up, or attacked, been pulled back and then gone out the back on the next counter attack.

We know that JB is a very controlling DS. It makes sense to concentrate on the TTs because you can control your own teams actions far more. All Dertie has to do re-Schleck is be within 5 minutes of him by the final TT. The only way Dertie would lose that would be if he rode aggressively and blew up, rather than riding defensively a limiting his losses.
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Crankyfeet



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:45 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Runitout wrote:

Dertie doesn't win by much, but he makes a good habit of winning - it's a sign of a man not afraid to risk losing to gain a victory.  Others could profit from his example.

Or a sign that he is better than his opposition in that particular style of bike race (GTs) and he rides less aggressively once he feels he has a safe enough lead.   Why is it assumed/deduced he has the same ability as less attacking riders but beats them because he takes risks?  You risk losing if you have, say, a two minute lead in the GC (which may be enough)... and then you take a risk in an attempt to make it a four minute lead... but also risk bombing out if you miscalculate on the attack.  You don't get a bigger prize if you win by more time.

Not saying you are wrong... but pointing out that there are perhaps more variables than just willingness to attack/take a risk that determine the victor IMHO.  Ability/talent being a major one.
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Mrs John Murphy



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But then it is perhaps perception? A rider whizzing away from everyone on a col and taking 30 seconds out of everyone looks a lot more impressive than someone taking 25 seconds out of everyone in a 55km TT.
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Mysterion



Joined: 17 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 4:32 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Bro Deal wrote:

Leipwhiner is not the same rider he was pre 2007.  He time trials and climbs much better.  Funny how he keeps getting better at an age when he should be getting slower..


I don't think he's that much better, it's just that the peloton has been depleted by suspensions and ostracisms.
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CapeRoadie



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's not that much better from the stats I've seen.
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Bro Deal



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:04 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Mysterion wrote:
Bro Deal wrote:

Leipwhiner is not the same rider he was pre 2007.  He time trials and climbs much better.  Funny how he keeps getting better at an age when he should be getting slower..


I don't think he's that much better, it's just that the peloton has been depleted by suspensions and ostracisms.


Although that is true, we are still left with a limited number of riders who can compete with Contador.

Basso will be able to if he is back on the junk, but he might not be welcome at the Tour.   He might make it difficult for next couple of years for Contador to win the Giro.  Maybe Liquigas will even enter him in the Vuelta.

FLandis might be able to, but he won't be racing any big races in Europe anytime soon--maybe ever.  

Evans may have had a slightly off year.  His advantage in the time trial looks to be decreasing, and he is not climbing any better to compensate.  

Out of Menchov, Vande Velde, and Kohl, which will beat Contador?  Maybe Andy Schleck can learn to time trial.  That dude should be practicing every week.
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Runitout



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:55 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Crankyfeet wrote:
Runitout wrote:

Dertie doesn't win by much, but he makes a good habit of winning - it's a sign of a man not afraid to risk losing to gain a victory.  Others could profit from his example.

Or a sign that he is better than his opposition in that particular style of bike race (GTs) and he rides less aggressively once he feels he has a safe enough lead.   Why is it assumed/deduced he has the same ability as less attacking riders but beats them because he takes risks?  You risk losing if you have, say, a two minute lead in the GC (which may be enough)... and then you take a risk in an attempt to make it a four minute lead... but also risk bombing out if you miscalculate on the attack.  You don't get a bigger prize if you win by more time.

Not saying you are wrong... but pointing out that there are perhaps more variables than just willingness to attack/take a risk that determine the victor IMHO.  Ability/talent being a major one.


I guess I'm comparing him with Evans - who was clearly afraid of the limelight and race leadership this year.  He wanted yellow, but not the responsibilities that went with it.  

That may not be fair - it's clear that Evans' best mountain support was Mario bloody Aerts.  The Lotto boys destroyed themselves trying to help him, with the notable exception of Popovych, but the net result of that effort was days in the autobus.  In those circumstances he had little choice but to wait until he was in a dominant position by himself before attacking.  That never happened.

All I'm saying is that Evans never looked at his opponents and said - I will put the hurt on you, or ride a tempo harder than I might be capable of, to drop the chaff and stop the attacks.  On the Alpe, he slowed down once he or CVV had bridged to Valverde-leadoutman and the Schlecklective.  He was capable of the higher pace - he should have continued to drive it hard to prevent his being attacked again.  That's the courage to risk that I'm talking about - rather than actually "attacking" - which requires, as you say, the ability to drop your opponents.
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Runitout



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mrs John Murphy wrote:
But then it is perhaps perception? A rider whizzing away from everyone on a col and taking 30 seconds out of everyone looks a lot more impressive than someone taking 25 seconds out of everyone in a 55km TT.


Agreed - I've said elsewhere that Evans' "attacks" are usually done in the ITT rather than in mass start races.  Those riders, with the notable exception of Indurain, are generally less popular than those who attack on the slopes of a col.

Derties' new and improved ITTing did the same for him in the Giro.  I was cheering for Ricco - not because I thought he was clean, but because I preferred his doping efforts to Contador's.  Couldn't cheer for Sella though - that was taking the piss.
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Runitout



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:07 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Bro Deal wrote:
Mysterion wrote:
Bro Deal wrote:

Leipwhiner is not the same rider he was pre 2007.  He time trials and climbs much better.  Funny how he keeps getting better at an age when he should be getting slower..


I don't think he's that much better, it's just that the peloton has been depleted by suspensions and ostracisms.


Although that is true, we are still left with a limited number of riders who can compete with Contador.

Basso will be able to if he is back on the junk, but he might not be welcome at the Tour.   He might make it difficult for next couple of years for Contador to win the Giro.  Maybe Liquigas will even enter him in the Vuelta.

FLandis might be able to, but he won't be racing any big races in Europe anytime soon--maybe ever.  

Evans may have had a slightly off year.  His advantage in the time trial looks to be decreasing, and he is not climbing any better to compensate.  

Out of Menchov, Vande Velde, and Kohl, which will beat Contador?  Maybe Andy Schleck can learn to time trial.  That dude should be practicing every week.


Schlecklet's final ITT wasn't so bad.  I think you'll see a Basso-like improvement from him in the discipline.  If so, he'll be up there, no doubt.

Evans was third best climber in 2007, and 2nd best ITTer.  This year he was about eighth best ITTer, if lucky, and about fourth or fifth best climber.  He was very lucky to podium, given that he was strung out on the climbs - so his defensive riding had its merits.  I do like his grit.

edit - Basso - if doped, I think he will dominate the Giro, and compete in the Tour.  If clean... nah, he's going to Liquigas.  I can't see him riding clean.
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forearms van petegem



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 5:59 am    Post subject: Re: Levi Leipheimer wins Tour and the Vuelta without bonus s Reply with quote

Runitout wrote:
forearms van petegem wrote:
2007 Tour

Levi + 12 bonus - 20 second penalty = 8 seconds worse off.
Contador + 20 + 8 bonus = 28 seconds better off.

difference = 36 seconds

1 Alberto Contador Velasco          91.00.26
2 Cadel Evans                                   0.23
3 Levi Leipheimer                               0.31

Evans picked up 8 bonus seconds.

This Vuelta, Leipheimer wins by 2 seconds sans bonus seconds.


Now, lets remember, if Contador had to work for Levi, chances are in might be a further 60 seconds in Levi's favour. Levi does this "kind of" work fo Contador, he never blows himself up or really hurts his chances. Levi would be better off wheelsucking tho, at his threshold. If Contador worked for Levi, the difference would be stark. As it is, Contador is up 46 seconds, and only bonus seconds.

Food for thought.


Big difference between getting rid of bonus seconds and not penalising a rider for getting a lift on the team car when he is dropped.  I thought that effort of Leipheimer's was absolutely disgraceful.

It does make a mockery of the argument that Dertie is the outstanding rider of his generation when he can barely beat wheelsucker, though.


re: Levi. It was a mechanical.

Contador: this has been my thesis all along. He cant ride away, sure, he can accelerate, but that is not his threshold. Armstrong will toy with him.
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