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In, out, shake it all about?
So Mr. Cameron has finished his negotiations with EU leaders and the UK has its long awaited (by some) referendum on EU membership. Which way will you vote?
In, out, shake it all about?
Seems to me everyone or nearly everyone in the UK has made up their mind already and the various trivial negotiations will change the mind of no one.  Sadly I have no idea which way it will go,  Brits are such oddballs.  Hardly any French people even get the idea of why the UK is outside or inside the Schengen area, and also outside or inside the Euro area, but worse, outside or inside the EC.  They think Brits are strange.

I myself am mystified by a whole country, or much of it, which thinks that being part of a joke British democracy is any better worse than a joke European one.  They are both run by the same people, the rich and the "bien pensant" .  On the other hand, at least the fake Democrats in the UK speak English.

I am for staying in, otherwise (as a British European) I imagine I will have loads of little niggling hassles with my pension, my health care, and overall with living in France peacefully.  Although I am sure I won't have to sell up and move back to the UK.  It won't be that bad, just loads of niggling bullshit.  I can even survive a moderate dip in the pound, which is bound to be a possible result.  I have had my income drop drastically three times in my life already.  

Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  

Should be a little bit interesting though as it appears that the Labour bosses, the Tory bosses, the business bosses are all in favour of Europe.  So who exactly is against?

PS  Sorry, "bien pensant" is  "Someone who accepts and/or espouses a fashionable idea after it has been established and maintains it without a great amount of critical thought."  "Opinion leaders", in France people who are from the same schools, and schools of thought, the Republican worshippers, whether they vote left or right.
In, out, shake it all about?
Fontfroide wrote:


Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  



This.  salut

I believe that what seems like a majority of Brits take a Marxist view (Groucho not Karl) of the EU that they don't want to be in a club that would have them as a member, and they will exit.

Only time will tell if that proves to be a good or bad thing.
In, out, shake it all about?
gerry12ie wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:


Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  



This.  salut

I believe that what seems like a majority of Brits take a Marxist view (Groucho not Karl) of the EU that they don't want to be in a club that would have them as a member, and they will exit.

Only time will tell if that proves to be a good or bad thing.


I do agree, only time will tell, so we wait.  I, for one, still dread the bureaucratic hassles I will face if the UK votes out.  Partly depends on who you want to salute.

Is there a big agitation or any sort to get out in Ireland?  Just curious.
In, out, shake it all about?
Fontfroide wrote:
So who exactly is against?


Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and George Galloway.  Shocked
In, out, shake it all about?
I voted to stay. We'll get screwed by the French in exit negotiations, so the land of milk and honey promised by the "Leave" faction will not be achieved.
In, out, shake it all about?
SlowRower wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:
So who exactly is against?


Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and George Galloway.  Shocked


Now those are some guys I would follow to the end of the earth. Laughing
In, out, shake it all about?
Benn puts it very eloquently .... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f0wFii8klNg
In, out, shake it all about?
Here in slovakia the current governing party is even using the UK referendum as part of their policy for re-election. Argument being they have "connections" and will react the best whether its Yes or No.

They have 3 priorities for re-election:
- solve immigration (quite easy considering we didn't let any Syrians in, despite pressure from EU)
- solve unemployment (they promise a new multinational company is coming to SK on a big contract to generate jobs)
- react to WTF is going wrong in England Very Happy
In, out, shake it all about?
Too many similarities to that clusterf*ck of an Independence referendum we had in Scotland a couple of years back. I voted no then because I signed up to UK PLC 30 years ago and can't see benefit of an independant Scotland especially after Kim Jock Eck's $130 per barrel of Brent Crude to underpin Independence fell flat on it's face.

However, I'll probably vote to go with this one. I've never believed in the benefit of the EU, there's maybe a level of ignorance to that but I don't see the benefits. It seems we do everything to suit every other country rather than ourselves, we capitualate far too easily. It certainly seems that other countries are far better off than we are. Just a view point, I guess what will be will be
In, out, shake it all about?
Slapshot 3 wrote:
Just a view point, I guess what will be will be


It's a tough one is this. Unlike usual votes in the UK, there is no realistic way for one side to try and bribe the other with someone else's money. So it boils down to tangibles such as economics (and economists can't even predict the past, so there are no certainties here) or intangibles such as "regaining sovereignty" which are inherently hard to quantify.

It doesn't help that the Eurozone, which dominates the rest of the EU is such a f*** up. If the vote was to merge with Germany, the economic case would be much easier to make. Though perhaps the political one would be "challenging". Smile
In, out, shake it all about?
Slapshot 3 wrote:
Too many similarities to that clusterf*ck of an Independence referendum we had in Scotland a couple of years back. I voted no then because I signed up to UK PLC 30 years ago and can't see benefit of an independant Scotland especially after Kim Jock Eck's $130 per barrel of Brent Crude to underpin Independence fell flat on it's face.

However, I'll probably vote to go with this one. I've never believed in the benefit of the EU, there's maybe a level of ignorance to that but I don't see the benefits. It seems we do everything to suit every other country rather than ourselves, we capitualate far too easily. It certainly seems that other countries are far better off than we are. Just a view point, I guess what will be will be


Of course you will vote as you like, but within your statement of apparent facts, there are a number that are seriously contested by not stupid people who are somewhat informed.  I am not a big worshipper of "facts", since they seem to be lying around waiting to be picked up by nearly everyone for nearly any reason.  There are nearly five million Brits living abroad, a huge minority in Europe.  They get many benefits, and avoid many hassles.  Ask anyone who does.  Are they all going to move back?  Talk about "immigrant problems", it would be smart to let them stay abroad really.  Nearly every country can say that they don't get everything they want.  In fact, in Scotland, some might say the same of certain areas, certainly in England it is so.  Actually anyone living in the countryside nearly everywhere is screwed in many respects by big cities.  That is life.  The rich benefit and the poor do not, nothing to do with Europe.  As for being "far better off" in other countries, what do you use as an indicator of "better off"?  I promise I will look up the rankings to see if you are right.  I doubt you are.  As for the price of oil, anyone who makes a crucial decision based on the price of anything today, and projects that price into the distant future is a fool and you or I should never believe them.  Ever.  Prices, rates of exchange, new developments, who can say what anything will cost.  Incidentally, oil was at that price for a brief moment in 2008, and has been nowhere near there for years, easy enough to find out http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart  Not many think it will stay where it is forever.  Ooops, how would I know?  In any case, it is a fine resource to have, makes life way easier.  A Scot should be a bit happy about having oil and using it wisely.

But as for voting in or out, I still think nearly everyone has already decided, and few facts will change anything.  For my own convenience, I do hope England stays in, or at least semi-in like it is.  No Europe, no Schengen, it is already a bunch of folk who think they are way more special than the other various bunches of folk.  Maybe Europe would be better off with such a special group of people.

I should think the next referendum (sometime in the next ten years I suppose) will find Scotland out of the UK, so I wonder if Scotland will join Europe.
In, out, shake it all about?
Hi FF, hope you are well...

Can I use the fishing industry and common fisheries policy as an example - Scotlands fishing industry is a shadow of what it was. A mate now has one boat fishing out of Oban, 15 years ago he ran 6 but has been forced to scale back due to the restrictions in catches net size etc etc. Now his biggest gripe is that despite their adherance to the law and the Common policy every other nation's fleets just overfish our fishing grounds anyway, especially the spanish fleet and they get away with it.

The relevance there is that was Ian to over fish or be out too many days the UK authorites would hammer him with penalties up to confiscation of his boat, now this minor situation from what I see, is mirrored across other places and industries that we as a nation capitualate to Europe in a way that no other country does, almost a fiscal appeasement.

Is this my own very sheltered view of what's happening?? Yes; but it's this that will make me consider my vote, I want facts, I want reason why it's worthwhile us staying in the EU a forging stronger links, I need to understand why rather than rely on a narrow view and the jingoism that's already rife!
In, out, shake it all about?
I'll start with an unsubstantiated statement - there is a majority that 'feels' they want to leave, but we will vote to stay.

There are so few genuine facts out there, and given what we know about the way that people actually make decisions, of course voters will vote based on what they already feel.

Ideally this was never about whether Cameron delivered what he said he would and how good a deal he thinks he got (he was never going to come home and decide that we should leave). It should be about the whole thing, not the small changes at the margin.

However, these days "X or Y" elections are decided by swings at the margin, so I expect the same old electioneering strategems.

FF states that there isn't a readily available bribe fund available, but the arguments are certain to be phrased in terms of financial gain / loss, risk and reward scenarios will be targetted towards the groups of people deemed most likely to waver in their decision.
In, out, shake it all about?
No idea where I said anything about "bribing funds", but maybe I did.  I agree that nearly everyone has made up their mind, at least in private.  I also claim that no amount of data will swing it.

Oh yeah, I would have to read up lots to know anything about the fishing industry in Scotland, and have no idea about what Ian fishes for or why he might have lost a lot of business.  Best keep my mouth shut on that.

I suppose like all changes, someone will get screwed and someone won't.  No way everyone in the UK will be better off or worse off, and those who think they know if they will be better or worse off in terms of many are just guessing.
In, out, shake it all about?
Fontfroide wrote:
No idea where I said anything about "bribing funds", but maybe I did.


I think that was my original comment.

In a General Election, the argument basically boils down to "Vote for us and we'll either cut your taxes or spend more money on you."

For this EU referendum, the same concept doesn't really apply as there will be no change in fiscal policy directly as a result of the referendum.
In, out, shake it all about?
Slapshot 3 wrote:
Can I use the fishing industry and common fisheries policy as an example...


The UK got stitched up in negotiations to join the Common Market in respect of the Common Fisheries Policy. So desperate was Heath to join that he basically agreed to the clearly biased terms offered in this area. See "The Rotten Heart of Europe" by Bernard Connolly.

It is the negotiation side of leaving the EU that bothers me; history tells us that we'll get turned over again!
In, out, shake it all about?
But aren't TAC's (catch allowances) and quotas negotiated and agreed by the council of fisheries ministers?  IIRC the EU Fishery commission proposes the quotas, based on recommendations from various advisory and regulatory bodies - and the ministers then thrash out an agreement.  If there wasn't agreement over catch allowances and quotas then we (Ireland/UK/Iceland/Europe - whoever really) would have fished the bejasus out of the entire North Atlantic cod stock many years ago.

Food supply is a massively intricate beast, but if it was left solely to farmers and fishermen we would be only eating what they can most easily produce at the most profitable price.  Without quotas, TAC's and CAP's there would be market chaos because every farmer decided to grow wheat because it got the best return last season, or the fishermen just going out for whiting and binning the rest of the catch.

Fact is, every EU country probably thinks it's fisheries and agriculture are getting shafted - but they have pitifully short memories...
In, out, shake it all about?
SlowRower wrote:


The UK got stitched up in negotiations to join the Common Market in respect of the Common Fisheries Policy. So desperate was Heath to join that he basically agreed to the clearly biased terms offered in this area. See "The Rotten Heart of Europe" by Bernard Connolly.

It is the negotiation side of leaving the EU that bothers me; history tells us that we'll get turned over again!

Yes of course we get stitched up, as usual but who cares.

We don't need the EU but they certainly need us.

We have stood alone before while they all let the master race control them.
We have been down the road before and have finally paid off the USA for all the borowings they made us have to give to Europe for War Damages. (Called the Marshall Plan)
We are an Island and have no Schengen or Euro currency which the scaremongers said would be our downfall.
Like Switzerland we can survive on the outside.

Cameron reminded me last week of the Benny Hill Sketches and his slapping the other guys head.
As our PM dashed from pillar to post with his bowl saying please sir can I have some more.
I really thought he had more common sense and could realise they were just taking the pyss out of him as he came home empty.

No discussion needed.......we are coming out and if he had taken that approach he would have got some respect instead of being the Euro Fool.

That's the way to do it like "Punch" keeps telling us.  joker
In, out, shake it all about?
One thing I  have noticed by reading a bit, and listening to Radio 4 Today programme is that this issue raises a lot of passion really fast.  

Must be hard to have discussions about it in the UK right now.  People must end up shouting at each other almost immediately.  Being all nationalistic and proud to be British and suspicious of foreigners and feeling hard done by.  And the other side sacrificing British sovereignty for no good reason.

Do lots of people feel so ripped off and outwitted and angry about all the other Europeans, or for that matter their own governments who have been outwitted for decades?   Maybe the problem is national, and not European after all?  

I know I am out of touch, but I am trying to figure it out.
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