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Should the UK stay in the EU?
Yes
60%
 60%  [ 6 ]
No
30%
 30%  [ 3 ]
Don't know/ don't care
10%
 10%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 10

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SlowRower



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:53 pm    Post subject:  Reply with quote

72% turnout. High vs recent general elections, but pretty low really as no-one can claim that their vote doesn't count.
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Boogerd_Fan



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fontfroide wrote:
Seems to me everyone or nearly everyone in the UK has made up their mind already and the various trivial negotiations will change the mind of no one.  Sadly I have no idea which way it will go,  Brits are such oddballs.  Hardly any French people even get the idea of why the UK is outside or inside the Schengen area, and also outside or inside the Euro area, but worse, outside or inside the EC.  They think Brits are strange.

I myself am mystified by a whole country, or much of it, which thinks that being part of a joke British democracy is any better worse than a joke European one.  They are both run by the same people, the rich and the "bien pensant" .  On the other hand, at least the fake Democrats in the UK speak English.

I am for staying in, otherwise (as a British European) I imagine I will have loads of little niggling hassles with my pension, my health care, and overall with living in France peacefully.  Although I am sure I won't have to sell up and move back to the UK.  It won't be that bad, just loads of niggling bullshit.  I can even survive a moderate dip in the pound, which is bound to be a possible result.  I have had my income drop drastically three times in my life already.  

Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  

Should be a little bit interesting though as it appears that the Labour bosses, the Tory bosses, the business bosses are all in favour of Europe.  So who exactly is against?

PS  Sorry, "bien pensant" is  "Someone who accepts and/or espouses a fashionable idea after it has been established and maintains it without a great amount of critical thought."  "Opinion leaders", in France people who are from the same schools, and schools of thought, the Republican worshippers, whether they vote left or right.


+1

My Slovak citizenship can't come fast enough, to prevent any of those niggling hassles with my pension, health care and living conditions that i have become accustomed to, as an EU citizen free to choose where to live. I don't mind the additional paperwork, but will prefer to avoid it.

On a positive side, the pound nose-diving means future trips to England will be a relatively lighter pinch on the wallet.

Looks like Boris gets what he wanted too, which is a stab at running the show. How long that pans out, is probably going to be the fun satire to follow for the coming months.
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah it is going to be interesting to see what small or medium changes, much less large ones might happen to British people living in, France, for example.  No one knows.  I will get out the old file for being French, I should have no problem, apparently after 65 they don't even have a language test.  And I am married to a French woman, property owner and white.  Not sure I want to BE French, in the sense that I am British or American, but hey, they mess around, I gotta mess around.  I have had drops in income before, so that should be fine.  While I don't know for what exactly, I am sure I will have some forms to fill out to get some stamp or paper in the next year or three.  Otherwise, life goes on at the bottom.

I can easily see how people would vote out and how they would vote in.  I can also see what a bad choice either or them are.  I think poll data suggests if Italians or French were asked, maybe even Dutch, they would be quite happy to quit.  Shame really, as it was one of the most interesting political experiments on earth.  Most of the other organisations are kind of boring.  "Europe" was always a bit full of surprises and basically quite wildly optimistic.   I like that.
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Boogerd_Fan



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting impact to your pension FF.. is that because you claim pension from the UK gov rather than the French gov?

My contract and employer are Slovak and i am paying Slovak (EU) taxes for 13 years now. I have recently applied successfully for a cushier pension scheme usually open to permenantly contracted workers in Slovakia (i.e. locals + those staying indefinitely).
I am in full assumption that when i will be of the age (and if pension still exists) that the SK gov will be the one paying it, as it is where i have contributed taxes.

On the flipside, having worked only 2-3 years in the UK prior to moving to the continent, the inland revenue are very quick to point out how little contribution i have given to the UK taxes... in fact spamming me with an annual letter asking to declare that its really true that nothing was contributed Very Happy I fully assume that if i were forced to claim a UK pension, i would get a very shitty deal. Even moreso now, as my payslips and proof of working and paying taxes in SK is subject to EU law what will be of little legal impact to inland revenue decision for me.

Checking the paperwork/logic behind EU citizens and freedom of movement, pension schemes etc are all fully transferable between countries. Planning to stay in Slovakia, so I will certainly be doing what I can to get what i am entitled to from my local tax paying. The 2-3 years working in UK i can live without. If remaining British will mean i am considered non-EU and not entitled to the largest pension i can claim, then i have no problem to renounce Britishness.

----

If the Dutch, French or Italians were to get similar result in their election I think it would definitely spell the end to the EU. Right now, with UK out, I can see it continuing... the big money that UK pumps into the EU as a member-state, will still be extracted (at least some of it) in new trading policy with Europe/EU members. It would only be under threat if other member states started to also vote out.

Of course that does not mean much, because even without the EU - we are all still European.

----

I had a good discussion with some Slovak citizens on this issue, and they advised it wouldn't matter if UK was inside or outside the EU, for them its a "cooler" more sophisticated country to live and work in, and many would continue to jump at the chance to go there as migrants. If the Leavers think that Immigration will be solved just by regaining control, they had better think again.
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Nolte



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boogerd_Fan wrote:

My Slovak citizenship can't come fast enough


my uncle posted about applying for dual citizenship for his daughter (they're in england)

not to tout my own opinion but i posted this previously on the scottish independence vote

Nolte wrote:
what is funny is that scottish people are more pro europe than the rest of the uk but if they left the uk, they would also be leaving the eu while the less supportive of the eu, remainder of the uk would remain in the eu.

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Biosphere
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SlowRower wrote:
. . . . But instead, the refused to believe the EU could possibly have any faults, told Cameron to f*** off and are now probably sobbing in their (expenses paid) fine wine at the injustice of it all . . . . .


Careful SR. All this complaining about out of touch elites might lead to ludicrous claims of class warfare Wink

I think Europe's problems are manifold and was heading towards a restructuring whatever the Brexit vote. Now it's getting there quicker.  Populism is on the rise on the left and right and the EU is not sufficiently robust to resist. IMO.

I also think trying to appease the leave wing of the Tory party is sort of like trying to negotiate with terrorists - more interested in blowing things up than trying to reach a settlement. I'm not sure concession from the EU other than today would have satisfied them. IMO.

Whilst acknowledging that the margin of victory was small and it wouldn't have taken so many floating voters, I'm not sure in the end there were actually so many of them to float. Vote seems to have broken down along very specific lines of age, income, educational background, region of residence . . . to the extent that the vote almost became tribal. IMO.
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mazda



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Biosphere wrote:

Whilst acknowledging that the margin of victory was small and it wouldn't have taken so many floating voters, I'm not sure in the end there were actually so many of them to float. Vote seems to have broken down along very specific lines of age, income, educational background, region of residence . . . to the extent that the vote almost became tribal. IMO.


Only to the extent that in almost each demographic the total count was only as extreme as 60:40
So it is the way the results were presented that exaggerated the schism.

Unfortunately the main two parties still don't get that the vote wasn't about party this and party that.
The Tories seem to be happier when they can share their internal differences whereas The Labour Party seem to refuse to acknowledge that Labour voters have more than one reason for voting for Labour, and that jabbering on about not getting the message out to their voters is a nonsense.
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Biosphere
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mazda wrote:
Only to the extent that in almost each demographic the total count was only as extreme as 60:40
So it is the way the results were presented that exaggerated the schism . . .


I take your point re the 60:40 split but some were above 70:30 also. I'm not an expert so what follows is just a few of my observations. I think they are statistically significant but I may well be wrong. I'm not even really disagreeing with you just answering with what I saw as you engaged on the point.

The polls were more or less tied in the end when a regression was performed to all the available polls. More or less a 50:50 and it broke with a slight overall majority for leave. So even then a 60:40 split on sub categories tells something

From Huffington:


But within in that fairly balanced overall picture there were some  significant deviations that pushed well beyond a 60:40 split and that is where my tribalism comment came from.

Ashcroft Polls ran was basically an exit poll on the day where voters were asked on how the voted and their opinions on other factors. On the first set I presume Scots / Welsh / Irish are disentangled as it's not an appropriate question for them. I would like to see what % of people went with mixed blessings on the second set (are a majority being excluded for a dramatic impact?) as I find some of the force for ill answers mind boggling. Some social attitudes I expect (so less mind boggling) but disagree with, but the Internet as a force for ill? The Green movement?





I also got a laugh of out Ashcroft on his polling website suggesting a visit to his main website where I could read about his philanthropy and gallantry. I didn't think people would still describe themselves in such a way, but I guess he is a Lord of the Realm.
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boogerd_Fan wrote:
Interesting impact to your pension FF.. is that because you claim pension from the UK gov rather than the French gov?



Yep, my forty years of contributions to state and other pensions means everything comes to be in euros, after the money changers take their cut.  I expect that for some time the uncertainty and shilly shallying will mean the pound drops and so I get less.  But who knows, maybe the euro will fall apart and the pound be worth lots.

My heart and my money are British.  But I like living in France, except that my French is not nearly as good as my English.  But actually "being French" is still a little strange.  If "they" force me I will become French.  I will leave "they" ambiguous.
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice post Bio.  While most of it makes sense, I am surprised (and happy) that among the many complex concerns people have, half of both leave and remain though capitalism sucked.  For me that is a big change over the last 15-20 years.  The other stuff was more predictable but good to see in a graphic display.
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Nolte



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i agree with ff, interesting reading bio
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mazda



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Bio.
As you say, the numbers in each category for the good/evil ratings would be more useful than percentages.

edit - they didn't get as far as asking whether Opinion polls were a force for good or evil. That would have been fairly ironic. Democracy and democratic referundum being examples of the ultimate "opinion poll".

Seems to support the idea that people weren't really voting against the EU per se, if at all, but more a larger sum of things.

We are experiencing power cuts here at the mo.
Has Europe already started to cut us adrift ?
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kathy



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am devastated!  The UK has committed economic suicide, and will now split up with Scotland becoming independant and staying in the EU.
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gerry12ie



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Biosphere wrote:
SlowRower wrote:
. . . . But instead, the refused to believe the EU could possibly have any faults, told Cameron to f*** off and are now probably sobbing in their (expenses paid) fine wine at the injustice of it all . . . . .


Careful SR. All this complaining about out of touch elites might lead to ludicrous claims of class warfare Wink

I think Europe's problems are manifold and was heading towards a restructuring whatever the Brexit vote. Now it's getting there quicker.  Populism is on the rise on the left and right and the EU is not sufficiently robust to resist. IMO.

I also think trying to appease the leave wing of the Tory party is sort of like trying to negotiate with terrorists - more interested in blowing things up than trying to reach a settlement. I'm not sure concession from the EU other than today would have satisfied them. IMO.

Whilst acknowledging that the margin of victory was small and it wouldn't have taken so many floating voters, I'm not sure in the end there were actually so many of them to float. Vote seems to have broken down along very specific lines of age, income, educational background, region of residence . . . to the extent that the vote almost became tribal. IMO.


An excellent summation Bio. On the money.

Friday morning was a rare occasion when I was genuinely shocked, but not the slightest bit surprised.  The UK's relationship with Europe has never been harmonious, and very often fractious, so maybe it was always going to come to this - but look at the cost already.  The Tories finally played their nuclear joker and few have yet ducked from cover - leadership, what leadership?  Labour are in the middle of eating themselves alive.  The markets are in turmoil (although that was to be expected - it's what markets do best).  Maybe most importantly, the state of the Union is decidedly unhealthy.

As a passionate European hybrid (Irish/English - but I much prefer to make the distinction of being a Dubliner from London) I will readily admit that there is a lot wrong with what the EU has become.  It's faceless neo-liberalism is remote and out of touch with much of it's members.  This should be the wake up call it badly needs to begin the reforms that are clearly necessary.  Most importantly, the EU gets on with it without the UK dragging its heels.  The UK can't be in and out at the same time.  It is shameless of Boris and Farage to state that somehow the exit will happen at a time that suits them.  No offence to anyone here, but there is much to be done, so the UK needs to GTF out and let Europe get on with it.

For me, the most saddening outcome is the young voters in major cities - London, Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, and to a slightly lesser extent in Birmingham and Leeds who voted remain but have been sent to bed early by their parents and grandparents with strict instructions not to play with those dreadful foreigners.  The image on Friday of a triumphant Farage and his supporters waving their grotty little plastic poundland flags will, sadly, stick for a long time.

So by the end of the year can we look forward to Boris in Number 10, Trump in the Whitehouse, and UKIP as England and Wales' second party following an election?

Jeux sans Frontieres indeed Shocked
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mr shifter



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A couple of points about "Leave".

So, so many Scots and Ulster voters want to stay over there, fair enough.
Scotland 24% is banded around OK.

Now don't tell me about 52%-48% being very close in your argument when the English and Welsh must have a larger margin if the Scots/Ulster figures are taken out.
So can I speculate that the England/Wales majority is nearer 55%-45% and much more decisive from our point of view and we know our history.

Another point about that vote is the 60 year olds etc have for the first time been given a straight forward choice about Europe and for 43 years have had to live with "Being Conned" by the greedy Politicians and their Lies.
43 years ago it was the EEC (European Economic Community) and good for Trade that the French President (De Gaule) said NON he did not want us and put the veto on us. When he was gone, it cost us a lot of money and penalties to join and then they changed the rules to it being a single State.
Who voted for that, ? - Oh yes they are standing on the steps.
Now isn't that what Napoleon wanted for the French to run things. ?
Maggie Thatcher was the only Prime Minister to stand up to them and got a reduction in those crippling payments until Blair chickened out and gave in to them.

We have had crippling Debts before and paid off the Huge USA Debt for the Materials they gave us in WW2 and for 900 hundred years we have not needed Europe for anything but "Trading".
We have proved we can defend ourselves, so many times.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gerry12ie wrote:

1) No offence to anyone here, but there is much to be done, so the UK needs to GTF out and let Europe get on with it.
2)So by the end of the year can we look forward to Boris in Number 10, Trump in the Whitehouse, and UKIP as England and Wales' second party following an election?

3)Jeux sans Frontieres indeed

1) That's exactly what we voted for. Yes Please

2)What can UKIP do now, they served their purpose and Boris is in a "Democracy" so who knows.

3) Do you think the French will fill in their Tunnel because Eurostar will be very busy as they allow the Calais Camp to travel and are rejected to return.
This will cost the French Eurostar millions as they will be responsible and their passengers have nowhere to go with the trains geting grid locked in the Tunnel.......indeed.
Eurostar can take them to Brussels. ??  Rolling Eyes
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gerry12ie wrote:
For me, the most saddening outcome is the young voters in major cities - London, Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, and to a slightly lesser extent in Birmingham and Leeds who voted remain but have been sent to bed early by their parents and grandparents with strict instructions not to play with those dreadful foreigners.  The image on Friday of a triumphant Farage and his supporters waving their grotty little plastic poundland flags will, sadly, stick for a long time.


I agree that there is a strong air of sadness, especially among and for the youngsters.
But I have been trying to point out that in every group of 10 youngsters there will be 2 who voted leave, 5 remain and 3 who didn't vote.
They have their whole lives to recover and learn from this.
One thing they will learn is that you don't always get your own way in life.

I'd like to suggest an alternative interpretation and see where it leads ...

Given the result, could one not argue that is the massive metropolitan city centres (London, Manchester, Liverpool, Edinburgh) that are the places that are "out of touch" in this country ?
Note that those places are overwhelmingly where our media and political centres are based.

I'm not convinced we can make the best of this "mess" while we still face a daily barrage telling us we have done the wrong thing. That can only deepen the divide in our country.
That is what saddens me.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kathy wrote:
. . . . The UK has committed economic suicide, . . . .


I would not be surprised if a way was found so that it ends up in the failed attempt / cry for help category

mr shifter wrote:
. . . 1) That's exactly what we voted for. Yes Please . . .


Is it? Today Boris is offering you to stay in the single market, migration still in the 6 digits, but less EU regulations. From the horse's mouth:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2...itain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well that escalated quickly Wink
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And Iain Duncan smith backtracks on the 350m NHS claim

http://www.theguardian.com/politi...-vote-leave-iain-duncan-smith-nhs

In fairness, he just rode around in a bus with that written on it so it is like Dublin bus passengers don't endorse the films on the buses they are passengers on Wink

Listening to the BBC coverage on Thursday night at 10pm, Duncan smith was asked about him referring to George Osborne during the campaign as "pinnochio Osbourne" and denied he did that. Don't lie when being asked by someone if you called someone else a liar, especially when you spent the last month in the company of cameras and reporters.

Listening to the leave campaign during the campaign, it seemed to me they wanted all the advantages of EU membership but none of the disadvantages. It's like breaking up with your spouse and still wanting the same sexual relations  with them.

Or in my case, the same rights to their books as before

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