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Scottish Independence - what do you think?
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
yes
45%
 45%  [ 5 ]
no
45%
 45%  [ 5 ]
don't know
9%
 9%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 11

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SlowRower



Joined: 22 Nov 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 1:08 pm    Post subject:  Reply with quote

pantanifan wrote:
Polls are now at 50-50 (or 40-40 with the rest "undecided") and Westminster starting to panic, even bringing Gordon Brown back to "save the day"...


I'm not so sure all of Westminster is panicing.

Labour - definitely, given the prospective loss of 40+ MPs.

Lib Dems - no, as will be wiped out in the 2015 GE come what may.

Tories - pretending to be worried so it doesn't look like they're too keen on the loss of 40+ Labour MPs. The backbenchers might use "the loss of the Union" as an excuse to ditch Cameron, though. That would teach him for violating one of Sir Humphrey's golden rules: "Never ask a question to which you don't already know the answer."
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pantanifan



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SlowRower wrote:
The backbenchers might use "the loss of the Union" as an excuse to ditch Cameron, though"


I noticed the Mayor of London was stressing what a "disaster" it would be to "lose Scotland from the UK". Is he openly campaigning for the leadership now or was this just coincidental?
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Mrs John Murphy



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pantanifan wrote:
SlowRower wrote:
The backbenchers might use "the loss of the Union" as an excuse to ditch Cameron, though"


I noticed the Mayor of London was stressing what a "disaster" it would be to "lose Scotland from the UK". Is he openly campaigning for the leadership now or was this just coincidental?


Yes, I think his campaign has pretty much started now.
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mazda



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mrs John Murphy wrote:
Yes, it is 50%+1

The ironic thing is that for the Tories politically although they are the most pro-Union they are the ones who stand to benefit from Scottish independence because it guarantees Tory hegemony for the next 1000 years.


You never know, it might usher in electoral reform in England.
Most of us are fed up having no party to vote for (except for largely negative voting "to keep the others out").
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Mrs John Murphy



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Highly unlikely - Turkeys don't vote for xmas.
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Nolte



Joined: 15 Oct 2006
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Location: irlande

PostPosted: Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pantanifan wrote:
SlowRower wrote:
The
backbenchers might use "the loss of the Union" as an excuse to ditch
Cameron, though"


I noticed the Mayor of London was stressing what a "disaster" it would
be to "lose Scotland from the UK". Is he openly campaigning for the
leadership now or was this just coincidental?


boris johnson nominated to be tory candidate for next election for the ruislip constituency

what are the possibilities for uk election if scotland vote no:
- cameron resigns on sept 19th? i don't think so
- next election postponed from next may until after negotiations for reasons outlined at top of page
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Slapshot 3
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no debate or campaining anymore, Salmond has mob rule running the show, everywhere you go "no" publicity is destroyed or vandalised. Family and friends are turning against each other.... it's just shit. I hope no wins but I fear the consequences afterwards.

Cameron could be on a sticky wicket because he's done sod all to prevent Salmond taking over, he deserves to lose the oil income of his inactivity...
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Bartali



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm no Cameron fan but he was on a sticky wicket from the start.  A high profile Cameron plays into Salmond's posh rich english boys mantra.  He entrusted it to a respected labour scot who frankly fluffed it.

Salmond's a genius ... he's made the whole thing about emotion rather than facts.  The same will happen if we have a Euro vote too!
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real problem is that nobody whatsoever has any facts about what exactly would happen with all the variables.  When you weigh up all the uncertainties about taxes, money, Europe, nuclear subs, oil etc etc, there is not a person in the entire globe that can say anything certain about any of it.  that goes as much for Scotland as anywhere else.  So when you look at the overall uncertainties and the nearly totally unknown risks, those pro-Scotland in the UK want the independent Scottish, to be afraid of the future much different to what it now is.  Sadly, what exactly does anyone think is going to happen to the UK economy, environment, transport system, or cycling system five years from now.  Those who want Scotland independent, make up facts or say that it will be OK and it will work out.  Honestly, no one knows what will happen and anything the English banks or parliaments says just promotes fear of risk and the unknown.  As if THEY know what is going to happen.

So of course it is about emotions.  But then countries are all about that anyway, anywhere.  They are not based on some kind of rational calculation of where it is better to be Flanders or Belgium.  There is no such calculation possible, but admitting that is way too embarrassing for anyone.
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SlowRower



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fontfroide wrote:
The real problem is that nobody whatsoever has any facts about what exactly would happen with all the variables.


Unfortunately, whilst many things are genuinely unknowable (e.g. future volumes and price of oil) the main current uncertainty is which currency an independent Scotland will be using, and that uncertainty is man-made.

Salmond says: "£ via currency union"

Westminster says: "No". And as all the main UK parties are saying this and have continued to say it despite the recent "love-bombing" of Scotland and supposed offers of greater devolution by Burns Night is there's a No vote, then I think this is about as certain as one can get in politics.

Salmond says: "Liar, liar, pants on fire. It's not fair. Those Tory toffs are being mean to us. It's our pound and we're going to use it"

Anyone promoting an investment proposal that was as misleading as the "Yes" campaign would be disqualified as a Director and/or banned by the financial regulator in double-quick time, yet this is the basis on which a permanent decision about staying in or out of the UK is to be made.

It would be funny if it wasn't so serious for the Scots. Despite the media hype, it's not much of an issue to the UK in anything other than the short term, other than increasing the chances of Boris Johnson being PM.
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SlowRower



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bartali wrote:
I'm no Cameron fan but he was on a sticky wicket from the start.


Other than ruling our "Devo Max" as an option, Cameron has let Salmond dictate all the terms of the referendum, so if his wicket has been a bit sticky, one could say he forgot to put the covers on.
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Bartali



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think he hugely underestimated Salmond's ability to harness support based on distorting the truth.  It's quite frightening to be honest that ordinary folk can be manipulated so easily.

Goodness know what will appen when the Islanders catch on that it's their oil and declare independence from Edinburgh!!
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Fontfroide



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bartali wrote:


Goodness know what will appen when the Islanders catch on that it's their oil and declare independence from Edinburgh!!


I hadn't heard much about this.  So is there a "regionalism" WITHN Scotland that is strong enough to overcome Scottishness.  
Shetlands?  They think they are Shetlish?  It is logical in the sense that there are local and regional and national identities all mixed up in nearly any country, so why not Scotland.
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SlowRower



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Recent developments make me think that Cameron will be toast either way. The way he's meekly gone along with self-appointed President Brown's offer of further devolution to Scotland (funded, of course, by taxpayers in England etc.) without any consultation will not sit well with the Tory backbenchers. So Yes or No, he'll most likely get ousted, simply for "assuming the position" at Brown's command.

There will be a "race to the bottom" amongst potential replacements as to who promises to be meanest to Scotland, as recent opinion polls suggest a fair degree of latent anger amongst the English etc. that has been stirred up by the Yes campaign.

The new PM will not be bound by Cameron's recent "vow", as they clearly have not been consulted and the issue wasn't discussed at Cabinet or in the House.

Following a No vote, a General Election manifesto to correct the preferential allocation of public to Scotland will potentially be quite appealing to waivering Tory voters, and won't make them any less popular in Scotland.

For the same reasons, a General Election manifesto committed to getting the best deal from negotiations for the UK (i.e. "We'll screw Scotland", but not in so many words) will also probably sit quite well.

My next post will contain this week's Lottery Numbers, so watch this space!
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Slapshot 3
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it's done and it was no thankfully, but I think it will have a huge upheaval for all of us
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Slapshot 3 wrote:
So it's done and it was no thankfully, but I think it will have a huge upheaval for all of us


Rumour has it that the Royal Naval engineers who were lined up to decommission Faslane will now be deployed to decommission Salmond's vocal chords.
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Slapshot 3
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SlowRower wrote:
Slapshot 3 wrote:
So it's done and it was no thankfully, but I think it will have a huge upheaval for all of us


Rumour has it that the Royal Naval engineers who were lined up to decommission Faslane will now be deployed to decommission Salmond's vocal chords.


As long as the smug git and his Nippy Sweetie sidekick have quit!!
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SlowRower



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Slapshot 3 wrote:
SlowRower wrote:
Slapshot 3 wrote:
So it's done and it was no thankfully, but I think it will have a huge upheaval for all of us


Rumour has it that the Royal Naval engineers who were lined up to decommission Faslane will now be deployed to decommission Salmond's vocal chords.


As long as the smug git and his Nippy Sweetie sidekick have quit!!


Salmond may go sooner rather than later, as he'll be a bit long in the tooth when the next referendum comes round. But I think Nicola Sturgeon will prevail for longer than the Barnett formula!
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Nolte



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fontfroide wrote:
Bartali wrote:


Goodness know what will appen when the Islanders catch on that it's their oil and declare independence from Edinburgh!!


I hadn't heard much about this.  So is there a "regionalism" WITHN Scotland that is strong enough to overcome Scottishness.  
Shetlands?  They think they are Shetlish?  It is logical in the sense that there are local and regional and national identities all mixed up in nearly any country, so why not Scotland.


the scottish secretary said this here http://www.theguardian.com/politi...land-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael

Quote:
Oil-rich Shetland may consider becoming a self-governing territory like the Isle of Man rather than stay part of an independent Scotland in the event of a yes vote, the Scotland secretary, Alistair Carmichael, has said.

In an interview with the Guardian, Carmichael said if Shetland were to vote strongly against independence but the Scottish national vote was narrowly in favour, then a "conversation about Shetland's position and the options that might be open to it" would begin.

The Liberal Democrat MP, who represents Orkney and Shetland in Westminster and has been secretary of state for Scotland in the coalition government since last October, said those options might include the islands modelling themselves on the Isle of Man, which is a self-governing crown dependency that is not part of the UK, or on their neighbours the Faroe Isles, which are an autonomous country within the Danish realm.

Asked if he was suggesting Alex Salmond should not take for granted that oilfields off Shetland will belong to Scotland in the event of a yes vote, he said: "That would be one of the things that we would want to discuss. I wouldn't like to predict at this stage where the discussions would go."


orkneys voted 67.2% against, Shetlands 63.7%
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Slapshot 3
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Orkney and Shetland feel more Scandinavian that Scottish


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