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MS · Joined: 18 Oct 2006 Posts: 917

Solid ride by Sastre. I realize he's unfairly downgraded as a TT'er, but I thought he'd do worse.

Astarloza must be looking to pick up Zubeldia's mantle as the most anonymous top fiver in Tour history.

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mayofan · Joined: 05 Nov 2006 Posts: 1527 Location: good ol eire

on reflection if i was alberto contador i would not be a happy bunny right now. at armstrongs age, and given his training build up this was a stage that contador would have liked to take a lot of time out of armstrong on. in general these short sharp efforts would be better suited to younger guys, and one would expect armstrong to get better as he shakes off the post giro rust. unless there is clear daylight between contador and the rest of team astana after the first few mountain stages then armstrong will surely be given team leadership.

i think contador is the stronger rider, but if bruyneel feels hes picking between two potential winners then hes gonna go with his old friend and his probable employer next year.

message to alberto: keep your blood bags under your pillow.

MS · Joined: 18 Oct 2006 Posts: 917

mayofan · Joined: 05 Nov 2006 Posts: 1527 Location: good ol eire

im not so sure..look at the way contador has raced in the last 2 gts hes won. he attacked only a handful of times, and not at all in the giro. hes now ahead of the all the other gc contenders (unless cancellara has physically transformed into miguel indurain), and is only going to be further ahead after the TTT. From what ive seen anyway hes sacrificed some climbing ability for the TT and with bruyneel as DS i honestly dont see contador attacking.

im also pretty sure that lance will have his own personal super domestique in leipheimer.
i think contador is definitely stronger than lance but is he enough stronger? if bruyneel gets a sniff of an arsmtrong win hell be pouring contadors blood down the toilet quicker than you can say 8 tours de france. and if you think anyone can win this tdf without "topping up" youre crazy.
of course this scenario doesnt end with lance armstrong winning the tour it just ends with alberto contador not winning the tour. hes not THAT much better than sastre, schleck or evans that he can beat them without a team.

this is all notwithstanding johan bruyneels recent baffling "tweet" which may put an altogether different complexion on things depending on how you read it.

MS · Joined: 18 Oct 2006 Posts: 917

I think he's raced that way the last two times because:

a. He was riding into form in the Giro.

b. He rode economically in the Vuelta based on the competition and maybe to preserve himself for the World's.

I have little doubt he will attack several times in this year's Tour if Sastre and Evans are game.

I see Sastre as his main rival. Evans is a follower and looks to be no better as a TT'er now. It's conceivable on a bad day, Schleck could eke out some time on Contador, but I think he'll lose it all back in the TT. I'd trust Sastre more in an important TT and I'd trust Sastre more to put in the attack at the right time to put time into Contador. Of course, there are question marks like Kreuziger or Nibali, who showed themselves to be strong in the prologue.

BTW, do you think the story is true about Bruyneel dumping Landis' blood down the toilet a few years back when Floyd wasn't being a good soldier?
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mayofan · Joined: 05 Nov 2006 Posts: 1527 Location: good ol eire

sastre looked amazing in the giro when he attacked. hes like the anti contador, the attack looks like nothing but he ends up with minutes gained.

i agree that hes contadors biggest rival, but i also think evans is big contender, as he looks stronger this year and has never been far behind.

yes the story about floyd sounds like something that could easily be true.

andy schleck will have a big impact on this race, and csc are hugely strong in the mountains, stronger than astana as they arent divided.

bottom line, i dont think contadors climbing has been tested in a long time, and there are question marks about it as far as im concerned.

Biosphere · Joined: 08 Oct 2006 Posts: 1787 Location: Midlands, UK

Boogerd_Fan · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:19 am Post subject:

One person who now has to attack in the mountains is Menchov.

He may be the catalyst to some explosive attacks from the Evans/Sastre type of rider if the lead group is broken up early enough.
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Mrs John Murphy · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 12:29 pm Post subject:

It'll be interesting to see how Menchov handles this. It may well be that he is simply too knackered after riding the Giro and that Gesink is going to be the main Rabo guy.

If he does have any form then he does have a team capable of setting a pace which could blow the group if Ten Dam, Garate, Gesink and Clement do a lot of work early on.

Fontfroide · Joined: 07 Apr 2008 Posts: 1179

No one seems to have noted the rather poor performance of the leader of the Caisse team, LL Sanchez. What happened to him?

Sastre was pissed off that he could not wear yellow, but the mess apparently stems from internal Tour rule changes that were made after Landis and that many did not know. No one wore yellow that year, as Landis/Pereiro had not been officially sorted. Since then without telling anyone, certainly not DS Van Poppel, the Tour just has the last year's guy start last. Apparently Cervelo had gloves, uniform, headgear all in yellow, ready to go. It is reported by a team-mate that Sastre was fuming.

inputjoe · Joined: 28 May 2007 Posts: 321

eric_vv · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 6:37 pm Post subject:

Armstrong almost gambled right with his early start. According to the commentators on Sporza today it started raining 45 minutes after the TT yesterday. Can you imaging if that happened during the TT, it would have had a major impact on the race.

Biosphere · Joined: 08 Oct 2006 Posts: 1787 Location: Midlands, UK

Fontfroide · Joined: 07 Apr 2008 Posts: 1179

Maybe it is Pereiro, I thought it was Sanchez. Actually whoever it is, the leader is not Valverde. I hope Sanchez recovers and does well, he is on my team too. But I still don't know why he and Menchov did so badly. Is Menchov wasted from the Giro still? Did Sanchez make some mistakes or something?