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Mrs John Murphy

Whip out your balls - TDF Prediction time

So we've seen the route so its random guesswork time.
kathy

Random guesswork?  No, it's a no-brainer when one guy is head and shoulders above the rest in all departments.
Mrs John Murphy

If he can get through a GT without an attack of the Menchov's then i think Gesink could be up there. It is clear that the course won't suit Menchov, so Rabo ought to be backing him. The Schlecks will never win because Riis is a fucking retard.
Ralphnorman

has to be contador IMO
berck

Ralphnorman wrote:
has to be contador IMO


Agreed
Slapshot 3

Contador.... by about 8 minutes, Only way it'll be someone else is if Pharmstrong manages to stop him being there
The Lemondheads

Plenty could still go wrong for Contador. The one thing we can guarantee about Astana is that plenty more stupidity will happen over the next 9 months and maybe some of that stupidity will dent his Tour hopes. The team doesn't look great; Zubeldia is still there I think, which is good. Maybe he is good enough to win without much of a team - the strongest team is Saxo and they're bound to find a way to stuff things up. Andy is then clearly the next best climber, but behind those two there's no great clarity. If Conty has problems and Riis handicaps Andy somehow then there are a lot of riders, Fränk, Gesink, Nibali, Sastre, Evans, Kreuziger, Basso, Valverde(?), Vandevelde, Wiggins, Klöden, Menchov, even Armstrong, that would be in the shake-up.
CapeRoadie

Can't see Contador losing even if he rides largely unsupported.  Armstrong should be a little stronger than 2009, but not much.  Vino must have enough stored blood to last five more years.
kathy

Lemondheads, Zubeldia has signed for Shack.  Berto won the Tour this year without any team support (with his own team trying to stop him winning by all accounts), so there's no reason why he can't do it next year, especially looking at the parcours.
Ralphnorman

i think the question to ask is who is going to be the surprise of the Tour, a la Wiggins this year.
berck

Its being reported that Zubeldia wants to leave for Shack, but is being forced to stay to support Contador. Something about being part of the deal for Bruyneel link1 link2
Enchantress

This has become a foregone conclusion: Contador by a wide margin.

Now a more intriguing question might be who else will be on the podium and in what position?

Andy Schleck? Pharmstrong? others?
kathy

For the other two podium slots I would say Andy and Gesink, not sure in which order.  I don't think Lance has a snowball's chance in hell of a top five on this parcours.
Beasley

Contador is the best rider in the world, the MTFs will allow him to illustrate just how good he is.

He'll win by 7 minutes; only Andy S and Gesink will get within 10.
HuwB

Enchantress wrote:
This has become a foregone conclusion: Contador by a wide margin.


That seems to be the way of the Tour.
Before Armstrong, there was Indurain and now, Berto.
Another reason why the Giro is the better race.

While he may lose some time on the cobbles, Contador will take time at Morzine Av, Aix Trois, Luchon, the second Tourmalet and the ITT.

That adds up to a wide margin.
Bartali

While it's hard to see past Bertie it is never a forgone conclusion - even Merckx didn't win every GT he rode.

What intrigues me the most is the new guys who are showing constant improvement.  They may be a similar age to Bertie, but Nibs, RK, Shrek Junior and Gesink are definately on an upwards curve.  Question is will they get to Berties standard and over what time scale?
Mrs John Murphy

The other question is how will Dertie perform without the Disco Biscuits - will he be the Dertie of 2009 or the Dertie of 2005/6? All of his success has come thanks to Ferrari. How will he do without Ferrari?
Me, a fan?

Based on riding ability, Bertie by a mile.  We'll see what role politics plays in this one.  The two Luxembourger's will fill the rest of the podium.
kathy

Me, a fan? wrote:
Based on riding ability, Bertie by a mile.  We'll see what role politics plays in this one.  The two Luxembourger's will fill the rest of the podium.


which two?
Enchantress

HuwB wrote:

That seems to be the way of the Tour.
Before Armstrong, there was Indurain and now, Berto.
Another reason why the Giro is the better race.

While he may lose some time on the cobbles, Contador will take time at Morzine Av, Aix Trois, Luchon, the second Tourmalet and the ITT.

That adds up to a wide margin.


I tend to agree that in terms of intrigue and excitement, the Giro & even the Vuelta are usually better. The tour becomes more and more of a 20 stage parade lap for, now Contador, and before Armstrong, etc.

The grand tours are interesting enough for me, but I enjoy the one-day classics, monuments, and shorter stage races best.
Enchantress

Mrs John Murphy wrote:
The other question is how will Dertie perform without the Disco Biscuits - will he be the Dertie of 2009 or the Dertie of 2005/6? All of his success has come thanks to Ferrari. How will he do without Ferrari?


Won't Astana have another, ahem, top (doping) doctor to make sure Contador has his wonder pills?
Mrs John Murphy

Vino had the pills in 2006 but got sloppy in the mechanics of doping - the wrong blood is a school-boy error.

Obviously it depends on what dope testing rules they have in place - it they have the 2009 rules, or the 2008 rules.

My guess is that a Vino/Dertie busting would make a lot of people happy - UCI, ASO and Uniballer.
happa gal

I am still surprised that Armstrong received a couple votes.
Mrs John Murphy

happa gal wrote:
I am still surprised that Armstrong received a couple votes.


That was Cape and 'Sam' who works with Cape Wink
happa gal

Mrs John Murphy wrote:
happa gal wrote:
I am still surprised that Armstrong received a couple votes.


That was Cape and 'Sam' who works with Cape Wink


ha...ha...ha...ha...yup, I sure have missed reading your posts MJM!!
Me, a fan?

kathy wrote:
Me, a fan? wrote:
Based on riding ability, Bertie by a mile.  We'll see what role politics plays in this one.  The two Luxembourger's will fill the rest of the podium.


which two?


Dang, I tried to sneak a third option under the radar.  No, Kirchen isn't a good enough climber for next year's course.  The Brotha's it is.
thunderthighs

Lance baby still invokes fear. it will be a different race
..not on contador team anymore..

Lance for the win...better placing at the giro too..

double win would be nice...

ciao
CapeRoadie

You're dreaming, TT
Enchantress

I'm starting to equate the return of TT with that of LA to GT racing....
Me, a fan?

thunderthighs wrote:
Lance baby still invokes fear. it will be a different race
..not on contador team anymore..

Lance for the win...better placing at the giro too..

double win would be nice...

ciao


Him and Gilberto Simoni both.
thunderthighs

gibo always rode a good race .. have no evil to say on him...   has a big mouth...ciao
bianchigirl

Since Armstrong's riding that other GT (according to idiot boy Stapleton) the ToC, a better placing in the Giro looks unlikely.
thunderthighs

perche..    bianchigirl ist possible, have no fear, sergio is here..ciao
Boogerd_Fan

Gesink gets my full support
MAILLOT JAUNE

bump
CapeRoadie

Mrs John Murphy wrote:
happa gal wrote:
I am still surprised that Armstrong received a couple votes.


That was Cape and 'Sam' who works with Cape Wink


Nope.  I voted for Dertie.
CapeRoadie

Me, a fan? wrote:
thunderthighs wrote:
Lance baby still invokes fear. it will be a different race
..not on contador team anymore..

Lance for the win...better placing at the giro too..

double win would be nice...

ciao


Him and Gilberto Simoni both.


Don't forget Ullrich's imminent return.   Wink
CapeRoadie

happa gal wrote:
Mrs John Murphy wrote:
happa gal wrote:
I am still surprised that Armstrong received a couple votes.


That was Cape and 'Sam' who works with Cape Wink


ha...ha...ha...ha...yup, I sure have missed reading your posts MJM!!


LOL.  So YOU'RE the one!
kathy

Bump - stop responding to these spammers!
levi

i think gesink will surprise everybody

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