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Biosphere

Vuelta 2015, Stages 17-21: Who Will Win?, 9th - 13th Sep

I like that it's seemingly up in the air and the edited highlights are fine for 10 minutes of action in the evening when I catch up. But if I was sitting through the stages live, I think I'd be frustrated by attacks not coming until they're inside the Flamme Rouge.


Stage 17, Wednesday September 9: Burgos – Burgos, 38.7km ITT




Stage 18, Thursday September 10: Roa – Riaza, 204km




Stage 19, Friday September 11: Medina del Campo – Avila, 185.5km




Stage 20, Saturday September 12: San Lorenzo de El Escorial – Cercedilla, 175.8km








[/quote]



Stage 21, Sunday September 13: Alcala de Henares – Madrid, 97.8km
Biosphere

I go with Rodriguez simply cos I would like him to close out a GT in what must be one of the very last chances he will get.
Bartali

J-Rod will pull a good one out of the bag and consolidate on stage 19.
gerry12ie

Dumoulin won't get quite what is expected from the TT and Aru will improve exponentially Wink post rest day

Aru FTW
Nolte

I think majka, he seems to be getting better in the last couple of days.
Boogerd_Fan

Jrod here
mazda

Bodnar holds an early lead.

Cummings 11" up at first check (13.5km)

edit - now 30 seconds down (27.5 km)
mazda

Oh dear.
Kiryienka only second, 27 seconds down (Cummings 3rd).
mazda

Thomas is 4th at 1'24".
With Plaza 5th and Terpstra 6th, all are more likely to be shunted down than the top 3 who enjoy a nice gap.
mazda

Jerome Coppel in at 3rd, 1 second slower than Kiryienka.
Van Den Broeck temporarily grabs 6th.
mazda

Sanchez is 19" down at T1, then 1'19" at T2.
mazda

Cameron Meyer drops from 6th to 56th in the last section.
Something must have happened to cause that ?
mazda

Oliveira "recovers" after a fast start and slow middle to finish 4th - @34"
mazda

Sanchez finishes 7th.
Sicard having a good ride.
mazda

First check.
Valverde at 19", Quintana at 32", Moreno at 50".
Bartali

J-Rod looks like he's going to ship a lot of time here.  I hope I'm wrong ... Sad
mazda

Chaves at 46", Nieve at 1'28" (!)
Dumoulin goes 9 seconds quicker.
mazda

Valverde third at second check  Shocked
mazda

Majka has already lost a minute to the Dutchman.
Aru 44"
J-Rod 1'11"
Bartali

Dumoulin and the rest ....
mazda

Sicard goes 4th @32"
mazda

Quintana only 50" at T2.
I think we are going to see the Movistar duo at 5th and 6th on GC after today.
mazda

Valverde finishes second (23" ahead of Kiriyenka).
That must have been some tailwind.
mazda

Majka and Aru both around 2' down on Dumoulin at T2.
Bartali

So Doumalin from Aru by what ... about 45 seconds on GC??
mazda

J-Rod @ 2'38".

Quintana finishes 5th (probably spurred on by Valverde).
Might even pass Majka on GC.
mazda

Bartali wrote:
So Doumalin from Aru by what ... about 45 seconds on GC??

Aru may only have been 1'44" instead of 1'54" at T2.
So the gap will be whatever he loses over the final 11km.
Bartali

Bored ... game over.
mazda

Dumoulin 46'01".
That's 1'08" ahead of Valverde.
Bartali

Woooo ... much closer than I thought
mazda

Majka limits his losses and will stay 4th.

Aru @ 1'53" which means Tom has a lead of 3 seconds ?
mazda

edit
J-Rod at 3'06".
So 1'12 behind Aru.
mazda

You'd have to say that Aru is the favourite now.
Only needs to take any time bonus.
How is Dumoulin going to try to stop it ?
gerry12ie

gerry12ie wrote:
Dumoulin won't get quite what is expected from the TT and Aru will improve exponentially Wink post rest day

Aru FTW


This man here knows his stuff Laughing
Fontfroide

Indeed.   Cool
Boogerd_Fan

Turning it into a positive for Jrod... he has 3 stages with lumpy finishes to try and attack Aru and Dou, while they look at each other

Over 1 min will be tough tho
Biosphere

I am probably most surprised by Valverde's result yesterday. If he's had the rest of two men on Tuesday, then he may be shaking things up over the next few days as he chases an unlikely podium.
Fontfroide

Biosphere wrote:
I am probably most surprised by Valverde's result yesterday. If he's had the rest of two men on Tuesday, then he may be shaking things up over the next few days as he chases an unlikely podium.


Indeed.  The performance of Quintana and Valverde shows they were really trying and have not given up on anything.  And the fact that a superb TT guy like LLSanchez was (probably) told to take it a bit easy means they are figuring on doing something intriguing over the next days.  Or maybe I just picked the wrong ITT guy and they are happy with what they have.
mazda

Yes, I think we can expect an Astana train to the top of the final Cat 1, but unlike Movistar they will be happy if a break goes away (to stop Dumoulin outsprinting Aru for bonus seconds).

Movistar may have to do the early chasing if they want a Valverde win.

What I can't see is how Giant can get any of their men into play, to give them options for Tom should the opportunity arise.
mazda

A few DNS
Peter Velits (BMC)
Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto Soudal)
Niki Terpstra (Etixx - Quick Step)
Cameron Meyer (Orica - GreenEdge)
Andrew Talansky (Cannondale - Garmin)
mazda

Over 50 km in the first hour !

Leading group of 25 riders.
Bart de Clerq leads on GC @ 13'38"

AG2R - La Mondiale : Sébastien Minard
BMC : Darwin Atapuma
Caja Rural : Jose Gonçalves, Angel Madrazo
Cannondale - Garmin : Andre Cardoso
Cofidis : Cyril Lemoine, Dominique Rollin
Etixx - Quick Step : Pieter Serry
Europcar : Jérôme Cousin, Cyril Gautier
FDJ : Arnaud Courteille
IAM Cycling : Simon Pellaud, Vicente Reynes
Katusha : Eduard Vorganov
Lampre - Merida : Kristijan Durasek
Lotto NL - Jumbo : Timo Roosen
Lotto Soudal : Bart De Clercq, Adam Hansen, Tosh Van der Sande
Movistar : José Joaquiin Rojas
MTN - Qhubeka : Songezo Jim
Team Sky : Nicolas Roche
Tinkoff - Saxo : Daniele Bennati, Pawel Poljanski
Trek Factory : Haimar Zubeldia
mazda

No Astana or Giant.
Visconti was trying to make it two for Movistar but failed to get across.
HuwB

DNS: Peter Velits (BMC), Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Soudal), Niki Terpstra (Etixx-Quick Step), Cameron Meyer (Orica-GreenEdge) & Andrew Talansky (Cannondale-Garmin)
mazda

MTN reducing the gap now - defending 10th place on GC  Rolling Eyes
Bartali

Well ... we are getting near the pointy bit ...
mazda

J-Rod tried an attack with Vicioso.
Astana were the ones to bring him back.
Fontfroide

Allez Gautier!
Boogerd_Fan

mazda wrote:
J-Rod tried an attack with Vicioso.
Astana were the ones to bring him back.



Chapeau....


and now Aru is going!
Bartali

You have to admire Aru's balls
Bartali

.... and Dumoulin too
Boogerd_Fan

Dudu looks super strong, he's got an answer for everything so far
Bartali

Yup ... he rode well there.  Aru did all the right things too
Fontfroide

Even thought the terrain is not totally propitious, they are entertaining, with attacks, small efforts, wild hopes.  Fun to watch.  Whoever wins.
Bartali

FFS ... does Kirby want to have Dumoulin's babies!!!
Boogerd_Fan

LOLZ and now the Dudu counter attack?

ahh, he went to the front and sat up... so just bossing Valv
Bartali

He's riding like a champ Boogie tho I'm desperate for Aru to break him. Smile
Bartali

Nico took his sprint well and was as charming as ever in his interview.
HuwB

Bartali wrote:
FFS ... does Kirby want to have Dumoulin's babies!!!


Yes. He got on my nerves as well.

If Astana and Giant have to share a hotel, Dumoulin will be trying to bunk with Aru. All those accelerations, yet never more than a few cms from his bum.

Also, did anyone notice who Tom's mountain side kick was today, who only got dropped when Landa fell away and Aru launched?
John friggin Degenkolb.

Only at the Vuelta.
Bartali

Yup ... they climb well for bigger guys!  Shocked
gerry12ie

Good racing stage today, but I wonder why on a steady gradient it's only now that the GC riders tried to change the tempo and race instead of taking that opportunity on the irregular climbs last week to get rid of Dumoulin.  Astana and Movistar - dumb and dumber...
mazda

HuwB wrote:
Also, did anyone notice who Tom's mountain side kick was today, who only got dropped when Landa fell away and Aru launched?
John friggin Degenkolb.

Only at the Vuelta.

I did notice the Degenkolb was the second rider from Giant home.
Boogerd_Fan

I really do hope someone goes crazy and tries on the 1st or 2nd climbs on Saturday!
mazda

gerry12ie wrote:
Good racing stage today, but I wonder why on a steady gradient it's only now that the GC riders tried to change the tempo and race instead of taking that opportunity on the irregular climbs last week to get rid of Dumoulin.  Astana and Movistar - dumb and dumber...

A little harsh Wink
Last week the gradient should have done the job.
Today there was clearly no point in setting a tempo up a 5% to 7% slope.

The entire top 12 finished together today.
Each one defending their place from the riders behind.
I wonder if Aru is prepared to let J-Rod go up the road at any point to increase the uncertainty / fog-of-war for Dumoulin.
It looked like he was putting in a lot of effort today, but I'm not sure he was putting it all on the line.
4th climb on Saturday might be different.
mazda

Valverde currently has no KoM points.
So he is also not ranked in the combined jersey. Shocked
J-Rod is the highest GC contender in the KoM in 11th place.

Meanwhile the points comp top 8 is all GC riders.

A big difference from the Tour of France where the organisers tried to fix it for a sprinter to win.
mazda

24 riders are 15' clear. Oliviera among them, and Pavel Brutt who has been unusually quiet in this race until now.

A small crash involved Dumoulin and Aru (not just those two  Smile )
A cynical observer might note that the peloton didn't speed up following the crash.
Aru has been back to the medical car twice.
Won't know if it serious until later, but if I were J-Rod I may be tempted to test him out at some point.
mazda

Machado (Kat) has attacked on the lower slopes of the Paramera and has a decent gap.
mazda

Gougeard and Duque have caught him in time for the intermediate sprint.
26 km to go.
mazda

Gougeard wins, from Oliviera @ 40".
mazda

Valverde is constantly trying to escape.
mazda

Good to see Tinkoff riding for Giant.
Sets Tom up nicely for an attack.
mazda

Well, there you go.
Bartali

2-3 seconds .... that's fair.  IF Aru can put 3 seconds into Dumoulin tomorrow, then he can put 5 seconds into him.
mazda

But it does remove the scenario of Aru beating Dumoulin by a single place to 1st or 3rd and winning via the time bonus.
He will almost certainly have to gap him.
mazda

Plus there are the sprint bonuses on Sunday  Wink
Bartali

mazda wrote:
But it does remove the scenario of Aru beating Dumoulin by a single place to 1st or 3rd and winning via the time bonus.
He will almost certainly have to gap him.


Yup ... but I think it was always a case of gapping him.  I think they need to be brave an make the selection very early in the day like the stage Nibs won in July.  Pleased its still a race ...
Fontfroide

Just watched the end.  Very good ending, top notch.  Sorry I picked Oliveira yesterday, not today, but still.  

Good to see YET ANOTHER young French guy make it into the global consciousness.  Although of course he was not unknown, especially as a TT guy.  And another "AG2R rider" popping up into TV stardom.  they have quite a team for GTs, those obscure insurance guys.  It really is a fine time to be a French cycling fan.  Begins to look like there could be a French rider in the final group at the World's.
berck

Anybody see the Sanchez push of Aru?

Astana under fire after teammate pushes Aru uphill
Nolte

berck wrote:
Anybody see the Sanchez push of Aru?

Astana under fire after teammate pushes Aru uphill


yes, mentioned by itv4 on its coverage
HuwB

Neither Astana or Giant covering themselves in glory over this one.
Astana for doing what pretty much everyone expects them to do.
Giant: For not accepting the jury's verdict of no penalty and requesting a re-trial.

Win it on the road, I say, not with slo mo video footage or whatever.
mazda

Anyone else think that Degenkolb must be enjoying his new role as mountain superdomestique ?
mazda

HuwB wrote:
Neither Astana or Giant covering themselves in glory over this one.
Astana for doing what pretty much everyone expects them to do.
Giant: For not accepting the jury's verdict of no penalty and requesting a re-trial.

I can only find a single article (Dutch of course) on the verdict and nothing about a re-trial.
Verdict seems to be that Aru did nothing wrong - whether the emphasis is on "Aru did nothing" or "there was nothing" I don't know.
I'm sure some will have something to say about that !

I think it better it stays as it is - as you say "win it on the road".
Biosphere

Uncle Oleg tweeting that Tinkoff will support Giant Alpecin as payback for Astana attack on the Mortirolo:

Quote:
@tinkoff_saxo Go tomorrow and help @GiantAlpecin ! Let Tom win! Fuck Astana and Katyusha for their Martirollo attack https://t.co/kiuypAB2jw
HuwB

mazda wrote:
HuwB wrote:
Neither Astana or Giant covering themselves in glory over this one.
Astana for doing what pretty much everyone expects them to do.
Giant: For not accepting the jury's verdict of no penalty and requesting a re-trial.

I can only find a single article (Dutch of course) on the verdict and nothing about a re-trial.
Verdict seems to be that Aru did nothing wrong - whether the emphasis is on "Aru did nothing" or "there was nothing" I don't know.
I'm sure some will have something to say about that !

I think it better it stays as it is - as you say "win it on the road".


I read that from a Dutch journalist.
https://twitter.com/thijszonneveld

Final fate not known until kick off, today. (11-00am)

http://www.telegraaf.nl/telesport...referral&utm_campaign=twitter
Biosphere

HuwB wrote:
Final fate not known until kick off, today. (11-00am)


If the Twitteratti are to be believed,  the decision is no penalty will be applied.
Nolte

Oh, the peloton only let the break get 7 and a half minute.
HuwB

I've seen the footage blown up from the Helicopter on RTVE and there wasn't an actual hand sling.
It amounted to was a fumble and a pat on the back.

I presume Lulu's roll up front is to lead a kamikaze descent off the final climb, should Aru manage to shake his shadow.
Nolte

At the pace they are currently going at, ll Sanchez might be stopping for a tea or a beer at the top of the last climb
Nolte

Dumoulin distanced but can he come back.

Eurosport on adbreak
HuwB

Eurosport= fecking assholes.
It's like showing a football game but not the winning goal.
gerry12ie

The writing is on the wall here
Biosphere

Dumoulin slowly clawing back the deficit? Or GPS timing errors?
Nolte

Zeits and ll Sanchez back from their coffee break
Nolte

Up to half a minute now from being 10 seconds just prior to zeits and ll Sanchez
HuwB

Dumoulin will slip off the podium at this rate.
Slapshot 3

Shame for TD, that's cycling..... hope either Jrod or Majka can burn Aru now.... not a fan!
Nolte

Chapeau dumoulin, you put up a good fight
gerry12ie

It's not just the writing thats on the wall there is a picture of Aru in red hanging on it as well.  

Kirby is heartbroken...
Slapshot 3

gerry12ie wrote:
It's not just the writing thats on the wall there is a picture of Aru in red hanging on it as well.  

Kirby is heartbroken...


Some small bonus then.... maybe he'll quit cycling commentary Very Happy  Very Happy
gerry12ie

And once again I would be happy to have a pint of whatever Ruben Plaza is having...
Slapshot 3

gerry12ie wrote:
And once again I would be happy to have a pint of whatever Ruben Plaza is having...


Just the one pint???  Mr. Green  Mr. Green

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