HuwB
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TdF-Stage 20-Montélimar Mont Ventoux - 167 km Sat July 25thFeck it. I'm off to Tenerife on Sunday am, so here's my contribution to Armstrong's Waterloo:-
* Km 14.0 - Côte de Citelle - 5.2 km climb to 3.9 % - Category 3
* Km 65.5 - Col d'Ey - 6.7 km climb to 4.8 % - Category 3
* Km 87.0 - Col de Fontaube (D.72-D.41) - 4.7 km climb to 4.2 % - Category 4
* Km 121.5 - Col des Abeilles - 7.7 km climb to 4 % - Category 3
* Km 167.0 - MONT VENTOUX - 21.1 km climb to 7.6 % - Category H
So, fire away.
Who's got their tactical analysis ready?
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Enchantress
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May as well cut off the first 145km's or so as it will all come down to the last 21.
Any predictions for tomorrow's top 3 finishers? Anything noteworthy?
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Enchantress
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I'll take a wild guess and say:
Contado(pe)r
Andy Schleck
Frank Schleck
Though I suppose Sastre could launch a suicide attack or someone like Moncoutie or Pellizotti could win in a break.
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cadence
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I agree with Enchantress, its gonna be Contador and the Scheck brothers on the podium.....
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ullrichfan
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Of course it will be Contador and the Schlecks. Wiggins is the Charley Mottet of this tour - a valiant, clean competitor laughed at by the dopers at Astana and Saxo. Riis is a bastard who is implicated way beyond the artifice he puts on for the press. Taking Frank to see Fuentes? Anyway, I hope most people on this forum will be celebrating Wiggins as the REAL winner of this tour.
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Me, a fan?
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Looking forward to the race for the last podium spot. A few questions need answering:
Will Johan(& Lance) let Kloden ride? If so, he will pass Armstrong in the GC
What kind of plan does Riis have to try and dislodge Armstrong and the rest of the boys and put Frank up into third? Will they gamble with Andy's minute-and-a-half to help Frank?
Is Wiggins too fried to do anything?
These guys will be watching each other closely. I hope it's not windy on the climb forcing a lame huge group finish.
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Geraint
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Headline of Rupert Guinness article today: "Evans, Rogers look to win on Ventoux". Muppet
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Hommedesbois
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This year's Dauphiné Valence-Ventoux result without TdF non-participants....
3.Espagne Haimar Zubeldia Agirre Astana + 1min 14s
6.Australie Cadel Evans Silence-Lotto 2min 10s
7.France David Moncoutié Cofidis 2min 13s
8.Espagne Alberto Contador Astana 2min 16s
9.Italie Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas m.t.
10.Russie Vladimir Efimkin AG2R La Mondiale 2min 20s
Would Zubeldia be allowed to beat Dertie, LA and AK?
Will Evans have a good day?
I fear in view of the UCI/ASO doping ostrich act that we are going to witness an Armstrong swan-song. Hopefully Fedrigo will have other ideas.
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HuwB
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I think those of us who saw that Dauphine stage, will expect Contador to carry out the same marking role, on the Schlecks, as he did on Evans.
Wind conditions forecast (gale force headwinds) to be similar or worse, so stacked up in "the ancient one's" favour.
The dog fighters need to forget about Bertie and do their own thing.
All Lance has to do is sit tight on Frank's wheel.......
I wonder what will be said on the forums, if Kloden manages to jump Armstrong, for 3rd place?
Probably, that Berto should have done more attacking on the Colombieres!
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Hommedesbois
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Looks like the Ventoux will be dangerous. What are the chances of the stage being neutralised for safety reasons? Or a Milan-style protest?
A suitable epitaph for a crap tour?
Just had a flashback to Pantani appearing through the rain illuminated by the car headlights in the Pyrenees...(98 maybe? Tourmalet? Luchon?)
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Nolte
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what';s up with coveragfe of today's stage
TG4 was due to go live at 11am and they didn't?
i'm sure they had a public service announcement about it but i do not understand their dialect of gaelige
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Beasley
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If Contador wants it, he'll take it.
Class of the field and Ventoux rewards quality above anything else; it's too brutal for a chancer from the bunch and too many people want it for a break to get away.
If Klodi can't keep up, I could see Contador putting his stamp of this race and dropping them all.
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HuwB
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A virtual no name break at + 8minutes. None of the contenders have a man up the road.
Wind speeds so far today, report gusts of 110kph! 
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CapeRoadie
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| ullrichfan wrote: | | Of course it will be Contador and the Schlecks. Wiggins is the Charley Mottet of this tour - a valiant, clean competitor laughed at by the dopers at Astana and Saxo. Riis is a bastard who is implicated way beyond the artifice he puts on for the press. Taking Frank to see Fuentes? Anyway, I hope most people on this forum will be celebrating Wiggins as the REAL winner of this tour. |
Wiggo clean? Pipe dream, my friend!
Howling wind today at the summit. Will be a factor with attacks near the top, no doubt.
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ullrichfan
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Actually, wouldn't it be great if Lance was heading towards a stage win and Bertie erupted out of the pack to pip him to the line! I think Bertie has the balls to do it, too.
Pas de cadeaux, Lance.
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CapeRoadie
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I don't think LA will be top ten on this climb.
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Beasley
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For Armstrong, nonchalance may be the best antidote.
Whilst there's no loved lost between the pair, maybe Contador just doesn't care? Maybe he's happy for Armstrong to play the bridesmaid?
Personally, I can't see Armstrong (nor Wiggins) featuring. It's between Kloden and Frank for third.
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Beasley
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Still got a large group up the road:
Hayden Roulston (Cervélo Test Team), Juan Manuel Garate and Joost Postuma (Rabobank), Tony Martin (Team High Road), Christophe Riblon (Ag2r la Mondiale), Aleksandr Kuschynski (Liquigas), Anthony Geslin (Française des Jeux), Samuel Dumoulin (Cofidis), Daniele Righi (Lampre), William Bonnet (BBox Bouygues Telecom), Maxime Bouet (Agritubel), Cyril Lemoine and Albert Timmer (Skil-Shimano), Mickael Delage (Silence Lotto), Ruben Perez Moreno (Euskaltel Euskadi) and Jose Ivan Gutierrez (Caisse d’Epargne)
Peleton just over nine minutes back with more than 60km to go. Nothing to worry those interested in the victory a great deal, but it's a short stage (167km) so they'll want to chop a good third off the gap before they hit Ventoux
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kathy
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Sean reckons they need to get the gap down to about five minutes before they hit the Ventoux. I would think they could allow a bit more - there are no really good climbers in that escape group, are there?
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Beasley
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Virenque had just over seven minutes in 2002 (stage was over 200km, but almost pan flat before Ventoux) and held off Armstrong by two, so they would probable like to trim the gap a little.
Between 5-6 would be adequate for the peleton, I expect. Martin and Garate are the prominent danger men, so they have a decent buffer if faced with seven minutes. No real worry, once the bunch get over the Abeilles, they'll have enough time to wind it up.
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CapeRoadie
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PEL-O-TON gaining
Split by Astana. Sastre no chance.
Break has only 4'50" at the start of the climb. WINDY!
Where is Wiggo? Ah. Leading the front in 4th position. Go Bradley!
Gap down to 3'57"
Garate is dehydrated.
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70kmph
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indeed go wiggy 
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kathy
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eS commentary - give me strength! They're saying it's Nibali who's been dropped.
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CapeRoadie
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They're killing it!
Frank vs. Lance.
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CapeRoadie
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ATTACKING RIDING!
Kloeden done. The old man still has something. Wiggo looks great!
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annesn
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Yup, LA is marking FS. Here we go. Game on!!
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annesn
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Kloden is dropped
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CapeRoadie
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LA won't let F Schleck away. It's like Menchov in the Giro.
10K to go.
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Slapshot 3
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Klodi is spent, grinding hard but he's spent, Frank maybe looking a bit ropey as well
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headwind
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is this the attack?
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headwind
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andy just needs to go
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Slapshot 3
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Klodi back...chapeau
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CapeRoadie
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Armstrong takes Wiggins' wheel.
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Slapshot 3
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like a chess game this
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billgull
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Vince Nibs! YES!!!!
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Spoo
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Andy looking round having a chat? But surprised hes left his bro behind, I guess he wants to at least have a go at Contador although he looks comfy.
Looks like hes waiting, guess his focus has changed.
Wiggo biding his time
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fede40
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| billgull wrote: | | Vince Nibs! YES!!!! |
a win on Ventoux would be amazing, not sure what the other two think about it though....
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70kmph
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Nibali needs 1:54 to take Armstrong podium
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Mrs John Murphy
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Harmon is a cock. Riis is a bigger cock.
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headwind
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schleck dsappointing now
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Spoo
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Pellizottis not waiting for anyone, clever attack!! Doing the spots justice!
Spotty shorts is always daft mind
Hopefully the shreks can mix it up now
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Beasley
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Van Den Broeck attacks GC group.
Pellizotti looking very, very strong.
Armstrong looks pretty comfortable, as does Klodi.
Saxo go!!!
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Spoo
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Go Shreks!!!!
Klodis popped
Wiggo and Armstrong  ok though
Good work radders thought that was it for a moment.
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Beasley
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KOD - Klodi gone??
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Enchantress
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*yawn*
C'mon Schlecks & Wiggo, put away Pharmstrong
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Beasley
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Garate, Martin 90sec on GC group but Pellizotti closing.
If the wind is brutal, it will be a long, long 3km
Contador rolling a little.
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Enchantress
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oh oh, there goes wiggo
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Slapshot 3
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Berto looks almost human today
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Beasley
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Andy driving a brutal tempo. Frank's got to kick for the podium, less than 3km to go.
Wiggins just, just holding Nibs/RK wheel
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Enchantress
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here it is! but pharmstrong covers? Wow, he really is on the special brew today
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Slapshot 3
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Garate salvaging Rabo's tour
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Beasley
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Will they hold on? Pellizotti 40s back.
Andy goes, Armstrong straight on his wheel, Frank looking in trouble
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Beasley
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Nibs off the back. Wiggins grinding back up.
Contador moving towards the front of the group? Could he go? Does he really care?
Pellizotti in sight of the GC group
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fede40
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Liquigas hasn't really been of much help to Nibs on climbs... RK seems to mind his own businesses rather than towing Nibs...
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Beasley
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Two leaders back together.
Such a brute of a climb; they have to ride every single kilo of it.
Andy still pushing the GC group. Wiggins well off now, but the looks of it.
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Enchantress
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Garate wins - well done
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70kmph
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good for Rabo
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Enchantress
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Like we thought - Schleck, Contado(pe)r, Pharmstrong
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Beasley
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Garate takes it. Martin second. Andy third, Contador, Armstorng.
Think Wiggins has held fourth overall.
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Spoo
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Fair play to Garate, Rabos tour goes from disaster to success in one day.
Brave effort from Wiggins to save 4th, Chapeau Bradley.
Chapeau Contador, strongest in the race.
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Enchantress
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| Beasley wrote: | Garate takes it. Martin second. Andy third, Contador, Armstorng.
Think Wiggins has held fourth overall. |
Yes he did hold 4th.
Surprised Schleck elder could not drop Pharmstrong. The latter who seems to have had his best mountain day.
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Beasley
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Andy Schleck was the boss of this stage.
He probable could have won had he not been looking out for his brother.
One the front for the last 5km, very impressive. I don't think Saxo could have done anything more.
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Enchantress
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| Beasley wrote: | Andy Schleck was the boss of this stage.
He probable could have won had he not been looking out for his brother.
One the front for the last 5km, very impressive. I don't think Saxo could have done anything more. |
Unless Schleck Jr. pulled a contador and dropped his own brother by attacking! Which he was obviously sensible enough to not do.
I still think Contador looked largely untroubled.
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Nolte
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i was concerned they were going so slow that maybe it'd be cavendish and hushovd would battle it out for the win
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inputjoe
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Good rides from Garate and Armstrong. They're the big winners today.
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CapeRoadie
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I think Contador could have won this stage. He stayed back to pull Armstrong.
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Boogerd_Fan
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Can the ASO get their heads around the 'controlled' racing on this stage, the stage, that we have all been waiting for, thanks to their crap route?
Rabo save their tour.
The top 6 marking each other up to the top... had Frank been having a better day (if possible?) then maybe the fireworks would've stuck.. instead they all were neutered by close timegaps.. ironic.
Nibali lost out thanks to this route...clearly he was a stronger rider than Kloden over 3 weeks... but thanks to the TTT we have an Astana-heavy GC. CAn only be thankful that the 1-2-3 didnt happen.
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Slapshot 3
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| inputjoe wrote: | | Good rides from Garate and Armstrong. They're the big winners today. |
what a surprise post.... 
Garate wheelsucked his way to the top bar that one attack.
Credit where it's due though Rip van Winkle sat in nicely to keep third
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HuwB
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What, no thanks to Contador? How sour.
Thought he played a great team role for Armstrong, as did Kloden who clearly didn't have it, but did his share.
The Ventoux played it's part today, with that headwind.
Strong man's course and Armstrong is certainly strong.
Chapeau too, to Tony Martin. Bouncing back and really being a workhorse for Garate. He could never have got there alone. Bit of a steal, by Rabo, but Columbia can afford it!
So, Wiggins takes 4th. Who would have thought, before the start?
Well done to all.
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headwind
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another waste of a legendary mountain. schleck the younger surely realized schleck the elder didnt have it. why he didt just leave and smackdown mystifies me. in the end, no changes.
good for garate. rabo has something to take home.
wiggo good job too.
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CapeRoadie
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Andy and Bertie lead their big brothers, respectively.
The race for GREEN is still on, is that not correct? Or no?
Mr. Armstrong's 8th podium. Is that a record?
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Enchantress
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| headwind wrote: | another waste of a legendary mountain. schleck the younger surely realized schleck the elder didnt have it. why he didt just leave and smackdown mystifies me. in the end, no changes.
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Have to agree. What could have been a firecracker stage, if any of them could be this year, turned into a bit of a grind and bore.
Everyone seemed (mostly) happy to just sit where they were. Maybe they all knew that AC is on the extra high octane stuff and thus not beatable.
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mayofan
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chapeau to all. AC and AS waiting for teammate and bro respectively was classy, and nice to see.
Poor kloden killed himself riding into the headwind. A consumate team player, although definitely the luckiest man in the peloton now that piti has finally been reprimanded. Still hard not to like him.
Bradley Wiggins...what can you say..heroic.
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headwind
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| CapeRoadie wrote: | Andy and Bertie lead their big brothers, respectively.
The race for GREEN is still on, is that not correct? Or no?
Mr. Armstrong's 8th podium. Is that a record? |
Incorrect doc. Unless Hushovd falls off his bike its over.
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CapeRoadie
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Armstrong said the wind wasn't as much of a factor because "half of America and all of France" were on the mountain blocking the wind.
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CapeRoadie
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| headwind wrote: | | CapeRoadie wrote: | Andy and Bertie lead their big brothers, respectively.
The race for GREEN is still on, is that not correct? Or no?
Mr. Armstrong's 8th podium. Is that a record? |
Incorrect doc. Unless Hushovd falls off his bike its over. |
So, a stage win wouldn't give Cav 35 points tomorrow?
Just saw Cav and Thor having a laugh as they bring up the pack 25 minutes later on Ventoux.
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headwind
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| CapeRoadie wrote: |
Mr. Armstrong's 8th podium. Is that a record? |
No
from CN:
France's beloved Raymond Poulidor, "the eternal second", finished on the Tour podium eight times in his career, thrice second and five times third, and never wore yellow for one day of the 14 Tours he started. Despite never attaining overall victory at the Tour, one of Poulidor's most memorable wins occurred during the 1965 Tour de France's 14th stage, 173 kilometres from Montpellier to the summit of Mont Ventoux.
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Enchantress
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| CapeRoadie wrote: | Andy and Bertie lead their big brothers, respectively.
The race for GREEN is still on, is that not correct? Or no?
Mr. Armstrong's 8th podium. Is that a record? |
Theoretically - yes, race for green is on but with a 25 point lead it is almost sealed. Cav would have to win - getting 35 points - and Thor would need to score 10 points or less, meaning Thor would have to finish 16th or worse.
Don't think Pharmstrong's 8 podiums are a record. I think Raymond Poulidor was on the podium 8x also.
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headwind
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| CapeRoadie wrote: | | headwind wrote: | | CapeRoadie wrote: | Andy and Bertie lead their big brothers, respectively.
The race for GREEN is still on, is that not correct? Or no?
Mr. Armstrong's 8th podium. Is that a record? |
Incorrect doc. Unless Hushovd falls off his bike its over. |
So, a stage win wouldn't give Cav 35 points tomorrow?
Just saw Cav and Thor having a laugh as they bring up the pack 25 minutes later on Ventoux. |
but with Hushovd in in the mix he will get points too. He could lose some, but unless he crashes or is 100% out of the sprint then its over.
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mayofan
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well..theres 47 points on offer total tomorrow, but hushovd is 25 ahead. So hed need to crash basically.
If hushovd doesnt place and cav wins then cav gets the MV, so technically its not over.
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Beasley
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HW - beacuse Mummy Schleck wouldn't be happy...? Or, the team decided a 2-3 was a greater priority than a Ventoux win. If the so, Saxo couldn't have done anymore.
Andy was never going to take four minutes out of Contador, anyway!
Boogie - Nibs has no excuse. He's a more than decent TTer and was part of a string TTT. He doesn't have a leg to stand on, in my book. This parcours didn't not suit him.
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CapeRoadie
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Okay, got it. On both counts, resident experts.
Armstrong will be stronger or weaker next year?
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Enchantress
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| CapeRoadie wrote: | Okay, got it. On both counts, resident experts.
Armstrong will be stronger or weaker next year? |
The hype and self-promotion will certainly be stronger!
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CapeRoadie
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| Enchantress wrote: | | CapeRoadie wrote: | Okay, got it. On both counts, resident experts.
Armstrong will be stronger or weaker next year? |
The hype and self-promotion will certainly be stronger! |
Ha. No, it was a question about his physical strength.
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headwind
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| Beasley wrote: | | HW - beacuse Mummy Schleck wouldn't be happy...? |
blood runs deeper than sport. fair enough. i guess brotherly payback, and retaining silver makes for good human drama...as for a bike race...
good call beez
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Spoo
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Obviously its pretty much over but are there any intermediate sprints Cavendish could take to reduce the number of available places that Hushovd could finish in and be 'safe'
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Enchantress
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| CapeRoadie wrote: | | Enchantress wrote: | | CapeRoadie wrote: | Okay, got it. On both counts, resident experts.
Armstrong will be stronger or weaker next year? |
The hype and self-promotion will certainly be stronger! |
Ha. No, it was a question about his physical strength. |
I don't see it quite frankly.
In fact, the only thing distantly threatening to Contado(pe)r is a positive test.
The gap between AC and everyone else in this race is, I think, very significant.
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kathy
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I thought today's stage was fascinating - like a game of chess on wheels. I think Andy knew he couldn't win the stage, because if he'd really attacked, Berto would have gone with him, and ridden away from him at the end. So he decided to see if he could help Frank, who just didn't have the legs today.
I think some people on this forum just don't like cycling.
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headwind
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| CapeRoadie wrote: | Okay, got it. On both counts, resident experts.
Armstrong will be stronger or weaker next year? |
Well we dont know yet. Of hes doing Tri, and marathons etc then no. Its hard to tell where the curves that decline in strength for age and incline for training collide...my guess is tha he is near that crossing.
but moreso would be the apparent strength of the youngsters improving. We saw some mighty shit from the kiddies this tour and LA will go backward as those youngins improve.
and keep in mind, AC wont be on radioshack...and he will have no reason to hold back for lance.
net result: lance goes backward
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mr shifter
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| CapeRoadie wrote: |
So, a stage win wouldn't give Cav 35 points tomorrow?
Just saw Cav and Thor having a laugh as they bring up the pack 25 minutes later on Ventoux. |
Correct ....Cavendish 235 points +35 = 270 Maximum Total
................Hushovd...260 points + the amount he can obtain in Paris
In the meantime they have 700 + KM's to do to get to Paris Tomorrow.
What a Weird Organiser, just no respect for the riders.
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Beasley
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Are there two of three tomorrow?
Either way, it's in Thor's hands. The maximum Cav can get is 47/53, if Thor sticks to his whell he'll get 38/42.
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HuwB
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| headwind wrote: | another waste of a legendary mountain. schleck the younger surely realized schleck the elder didnt have it. why he didt just leave and smackdown mystifies me. in the end, no changes.
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.....and it's all your fault!  
| CapeRoadie wrote: | Okay, got it. On both counts, resident experts.
Armstrong will be stronger or weaker next year? |
Never too early. Perhaps Joe would be up for a few thousand PMs?
Only 330 odd days to endlessly debate the debate nobody wants to debate.
Debate over! (for now)
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headwind
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| kathy wrote: | I thought today's stage was fascinating - like a game of chess on wheels. I think Andy knew he couldn't win the stage, because if he'd really attacked, Berto would have gone with him, and ridden away from him at the end. So he decided to see if he could help Frank, who just didn't have the legs today.
I think some people on this forum just don't like cycling. |
As a possible target of your comment, I disagree. I LOVE cycling. Sure, it was chess match to protect lesser places on the podium...seriously...is that fascinating? A couple early attacks showed what was up. In the end we saw a ratcheted back climb up a legendary mountain where people have died. To me thats less cycling than the race deserves. Here, the hugest of all the mountain tops in the tour this year and we see no net change and defending of the third step of the podium...well, I dont see that as exciting.
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mr shifter
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| Beasley wrote: | Are there two of three tomorrow?
Either way, it's in Thor's hands. The maximum Cav can get is 47/53, if Thor sticks to his whell he'll get 38/42. |
Yeh forgot them, so they will be busy tomorrow.
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Mrs John Murphy
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| Beasley wrote: |
Boogie - Nibs has no excuse. He's a more than decent TTer and was part of a string TTT. He doesn't have a leg to stand on, in my book. This parcours didn't not suit him. |
Bullshit. The ITT and the TTT cost him 3 minutes overall. AS and FS have similar grounds for complaints.
Now we can have the violins out for Liestrong on the podium tomorrow with a history being re-written.
Poor old Dertie - his moment of glory in Paris will be overshadowed by the Uniballer's midlife crisis. Lets hope his heart doesn't explode tonight. That would be bad news for the sport.
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Beasley
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taking no chances...
104. CAVENDISH Mark 71 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 5h 05' 03" + 25' 42"
105. HUSHOVD Thor 6 CERVELO TEST TEAM 5h 05' 03" + 25' 42"
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headwind
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how many sprint points for 104th place?
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mr shifter
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| headwind wrote: | | kathy wrote: | I thought today's stage was fascinating - like a game of chess on wheels. I think Andy knew he couldn't win the stage, because if he'd really attacked, Berto would have gone with him, and ridden away from him at the end. So he decided to see if he could help Frank, who just didn't have the legs today.
I think some people on this forum just don't like cycling. |
As a possible target of your comment, I disagree. I LOVE cycling. Sure, it was chess match to protect lesser places on the podium...seriously...is that fascinating? A couple early attacks showed what was up. In the end we saw a ratcheted back climb up a legendary mountain where people have died. To me thats less cycling than the race deserves. Here, the hugest of all the mountain tops in the tour this year and we see no net change and defending of the third step of the podium...well, I dont see that as exciting. |
Yes it made an entertaining 2nd Dauphine Libere this year and not bad for a one week race. ?????
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cadence
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Hats off to Armstrong, I honestly didn’t think the man could hang on. Many posters on this site will “NEVER” recognize anything he does but at 37 years old and climbing with the best is no small accomplishment. Congrats to Wiggins as well, who would have thought, I don’t think he’ll ever win the tour but he certainly deserves a great amount of respect……
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mayofan
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| Quote: | | Armstrong will be stronger or weaker next year? |
hmm...if hes running and doing tri's he may as well forget about it.
otherwise, hed almost certainly have better preparation, but hes going to be 39. Much the same, or a little bit weaker id have to guess.
Next question: Contador stronger or weaker next year? Lot of variables at play. He almost certainly will have a weaker team, but theyll ride for him. Will he go the way of all the rest who dared leave JB? Or is he just too gifted physically? Depends how significant a role you think JB and US discotana play in the doping.
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