Archive for justcycling.myfastforum.org Just Cycling
 


       justcycling.myfastforum.org Forum Index -> The 3 GT´s
HuwB

Stage 18:Pinerolo-Galibier Serre-Chevalier 200.5km July 21st

Map

Stage Profile


Final Kms


Mountain passes & Hills
Pinerolo Galibier Serre-Chevalier - 200.5 km

   Km 107.0 - Col Agnel (2744 m) - 23.7 km climb to 6.5% - Category H
   
Km 145.5 - Col d'Izoard (2360 m) - 14.1 km climb to 7.3% - Category H
   


Km 200.5 - Col du Galibier (2645 m) - 22.8 km climb to 4.9% - Category H

Sprint



JEAN-FRANÇOIS PESCHEUX’S ANALYSIS : A record to celebrate a centenary

“We return to France and there are three very big cols on the menu. The Agnel will be tackled for the first time ever from this side, then there’s the Izoard and its legendary Casse Déserte, followed by the Galibier. This will be our chance to celebrate the centenary of this mythic climb’s first appearance on the race route back in the 1911 Tour de France. In addition, the finish, located at an altitude of 2,645 metres, will be the highest in the race’s history. It will remove from the history books the place held since 1986 by the 2,413m Col du Granon. This stage will certainly see a match-up between all those riders who are in contention for the overall title, as will the stage the following day. Whoever is leading the race runs the risk of succumbing to such physical demands.”
HuwB

Can't get any more poll options (Vanendert etc) in so posted suggestions will be just that.
smarauder68

The Col di Agnel is a nasty climb...the last 9km are almost always over 10%...Would be a great time for an attack if anybody has the balls...
Boogerd_Fan

Agnel and Izoard are there to test the legs.. and make sure that the selection on the Galibier will be final and brutal (despite the easier gradient).

Going to be a good day! Very Happy
Biosphere

4600m of climbing in one day Twisted Evil I can't imagine what it must feel like responding to an attack at an altitude of 2500m

Weather forecast is good too.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/p...de-france-queen-stage-on-galibier
Bartali

... and I've got the day off!!  Smile
hengispod

amazing day in prospect.
i see contador , evans, voeckler and vanendert battling it out. with alberto contador eventually gaining 2 mins over the field.
HuwB

Problem is, it's only the last few kms that count.
I spy multiple trains up to the Lauteret, unless Bertie has something up his sleeve that can tear up the Tour rules of racing handbook.
mazda

That 15km false flat from Briancon to the "start" of the Galibier could be the biggest obstacle to an attack from a long way out.
Expect to see teams shove helpers up the road.
smarauder68

I would love to see someone in the top 10 launch an attack on the Col de Agnel...I wanna see another Floyd-esque type of ride...if we have to wait for the final climb, I'll be dissapointed.
Boogerd_Fan

smarauder68 wrote:
I would love to see someone in the top 10 launch an attack on the Col de Agnel...I wanna see another Floyd-esque type of ride...if we have to wait for the final climb, I'll be dissapointed.


Yes, lets phone in the plan tonight, and ask them all to pop on their testosterone patches before supper.  Rolling Eyes
Boogerd_Fan

new found respect for Tom Danielson.. latest promo guff on CN he explains he has never ridden in the Alps before!!!! Should be an interesting few days for him!
ullrichfan

Could be a good day for your man, Boogie - Gesink is so far behind he would be given a lot of leeway if he has finally found his legs.
Boogerd_Fan

Hope so, but i'm thinking if they sort out the GC tomorrow, then there will be more chance on the easier day to Dutch mountain Smile

regarding his legs... they're right there on the end of his body... but i still think he won't find them. Crash or not, his motivation and confidence has taken a big knock the last 2 weeks.
ullrichfan

regarding his legs... they're right there on the end of his body...

Eh, thanks for the biology lesson  Twisted Evil
Fontfroide

HuwB wrote:
Can't get any more poll options (Vanendert etc) in so posted suggestions will be just that.


I think Vanendert will get in a break to pick up points at the first two climbs, so he can win that jersey no one really fights for.  Will he win?
Fontfroide

smarauder68 wrote:
I would love to see someone in the top 10 launch an attack on the Col de Agnel...I wanna see another Floyd-esque type of ride...if we have to wait for the final climb, I'll be dissapointed.


I have the same feelings.  Just once I would like to see a suicide break, whether it wins or loses.

In fact, one of these days I would like to see a Royal Escape, with five of the top ten, plus a few helpers, trying to rock the boat.  That is always really exciting.

Let's say, on Agnel, a breakaway of Contador, Evans, Frank S, Basso, Uran, Navarro, Fuglsang, Szmyd, Geraint, Moinard, Hernandez and Monfort.  Could be a couple of others too.

Might be fun to watch.
Severo

Got to feel sorry for the sprinters today.
Bartali

How does the cut off work?
Fontfroide

Today's stage is coefficient 3
Tomorrow is coefficient 4

Simple.


Coefficient 3 (stages presenting intense difficulty) The permitted finishing time is calculated according to the winner’s finishing time plus:
• 8% between 31 km/h & 32 km/h; • 9% between 32 km/h & 33 km/h; • 10% between 33 km/h & 34 km/h; • 11% between 34 km/h & 35 km/h; • 12% between 35 km/h & 36 km/h; • 13% between 36 km/h & 37 km/h; • 14% between 37 km/h & 38 km/h; • 15% between 38 km/h & 39 km/h; • 16% between 39 km/h & 40 km/h; • 17% over 40 km/h

Coefficient 4 (very difficult short stages)
The permitted finishing time is calculated according to the winner’s finishing time plus: • 9% if the average speed is less than or
equal to 30 km/h • 10% between 30 km/h & 31 km/h; • 11% between 31 km/h & 32 km/h; • 12% between 32 km/h & 33 km/h; • 13% between 33 km/h & 34 km/h; • 14% between 34 km/h & 35 km/h; • 15% between 35 km/h & 36 km/h; • 16% between 36 km/h & 37 km/h; • 17% between 37 km/h & 38 km/h; • 18% between 38 km/h & 39 km/h; • 19% between 39 km/h & 40 km/h; • 20% over 40 km/h
Biosphere

Fontfroide wrote:
Today's stage is coefficient 3
Tomorrow is coefficient 4 . . .


The CN ticker says HTC + Movistar are going at it hammer and tongs to the intermediate, so I wonder if they are trying to up the average speed and hence the cut-off based on the formula you posted?
Nolte

Biosphere wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:
Today's stage is coefficient 3
Tomorrow is coefficient 4 . . .


The CN ticker says HTC + Movistar are going at it hammer and tongs to the intermediate, so I wonder if they are trying to up the average speed and hence the cut-off based on the formula you posted?


but then again the harder the stage, the faster the stage is, the tougher it will be for the sprinters. if they go faster, the gaps are bigger at the end.

anyway Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil wouldn't be too worried about the cut off i don't think. I know he finishes in the bus most days but remember he did finish a mountain stage in the tour of switzerland 12 seconds behind andy schleck (the day The Gent won)

the big difference is if the speed is 34.9km/h and 35.0 km/h
Biosphere

Nolte wrote:
Biosphere wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:
Today's stage is coefficient 3
Tomorrow is coefficient 4 . . .


The CN ticker says HTC + Movistar are going at it hammer and tongs to the intermediate, so I wonder if they are trying to up the average speed and hence the cut-off based on the formula you posted?


but then again the harder the stage, the faster the stage is, the tougher it will be for the sprinters. if they go faster, the gaps are bigger at the end.


I wondered that too. I could understand Movistar trying to HD Cavendish, cos as you say Rojas can climb, but why would HTC join in?

Nolte wrote:
anyway Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil wouldn't be too worried about the cut off i don't think. I know he finishes in the bus most days but remember he did finish a mountain stage in the tour of switzerland 12 seconds behind andy schleck (the day The Gent won)

the big difference is if the speed is 34.9km/h and 35.0 km/h


Not sure I follow that. Each time the speed goes up by a km/hour they get an extra percent. Do you think the speed is likely to be just around that point and depending where the average falls could give a few extra crucial minutes on the cutoff?
smarauder68

I would love to see the Cav groupetto eliminated today...That would leave Gilbert, Evans and Thor to battle for Green.
HuwB

Points battle comes to nothing. 19 men away, at the foot of the Agnello.
peloton @ 8.15
Evans has his bases covered. (Marcus B and Brent B in the break)

Off to watch France 3 as they are about to go live.........
Bartali

smarauder68 wrote:
I would love to see the Cav groupetto eliminated today...That would leave Gilbert, Evans and Thor to battle for Green.
Me too Laughing  Laughing  Laughing
smarauder68

Hoogerland in the break again....he gets the prize for most delusional...lol
Biosphere

Biosphere wrote:
Nolte wrote:
Biosphere wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:
Today's stage is coefficient 3
Tomorrow is coefficient 4 . . .


The CN ticker says HTC + Movistar are going at it hammer and tongs to the intermediate, so I wonder if they are trying to up the average speed and hence the cut-off based on the formula you posted?


but then again the harder the stage, the faster the stage is, the tougher it will be for the sprinters. if they go faster, the gaps are bigger at the end.


I wondered that too. I could understand Movistar trying to HD Cavendish, cos as you say Rojas can climb, but why would HTC join in?


Thinking about it I reckon HTC were trying an insurance policy so that Cavendish can survive a crash on Sunday in the final sprint and not have somebody in a position where they can nick it if he doesn't place in the points.
Bartali

Game on ... ES has gone live!
Nolte

Biosphere wrote:

Nolte wrote:
anyway Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil wouldn't be too worried about the cut off i don't think. I know he finishes in the bus most days but remember he did finish a mountain stage in the tour of switzerland 12 seconds behind andy schleck (the day The Gent won)

the big difference is if the speed is 34.9km/h and 35.0 km/h


Not sure I follow that. Each time the speed goes up by a km/hour they get an extra percent. Do you think the speed is likely to be just around that point and depending where the average falls could give a few extra crucial minutes on the cutoff?


*goes and get's calculator from his holster*

let's say today's speed is 34.9km/h. This would mean the winning time is for the 200.5 km. the winners time is 5 hours 44 minutes and 42 seconds. This would mean the bus would have to get in at 11% of the time which would be 6 hours 22 minutes and 36 seconds. This is 37 minutes 54 seconds behind the stage winner.

However if they go at 35.0km/h (assuming the cut off point is .0). The winners time over 200.5km would be 5 hours 43 minutes and 42 seconds. So by going the extra point faster, they are 1 minute quicker then expected.

However the cut off point at this would be at 12% of the winners time. This is 6 hours 24 minutes and 57 seconds. This is 41 minutes 15 seconds behind the winner of the stage.

Therefore the one notch of speed increase allows the gruppetto 2 minutes 21 seconds more to get to the line and that's what i mean by the importance of the speed difference

it's just then a small increase in speed adds a significant time to the finish time needed for the grupetto
smarauder68

I wonder if the Belgian(Venerent?) would consider trying to bridge the gap once the climb gets steeper....he might fear losing his KOM.
Boogerd_Fan

Interesting Leopard and BMC riders in the break... basically their flat-terrain riders... could we see an attack from Schlecks or Evans on the Izoard, with these guys dropping back to make a train in the valley?
Or is it insurance in case Bertie tries something early?

Game on indeed!
Geraint

Harmon talks like he has done 200km for 2 1/2 weeks before.
Bartali

Yeah ... he's talked the talk alreight, but not walked the walk!!
Bartali

Gilbert with a 36x27!!  Blimey!
gerry12ie

Bartali wrote:
Gilbert with a 36x27!!  Blimey!


And attacking!!
70kmph

...elimination race for MC. Leipheimer still fighting!
phildange

Very strong opposite wind signaled from Izoard to Galibier . This is a very bad news for a tough guy who would flee alone while climbing the Izoard.
I was expecting Contador, or Sanchez/Vanendert to try this exploit . I was hoping that in fact .
But the perspective of being alone between Izoard and Galibier against a violent wind could make a brave man hesitate and spoil the stage . F*** !
Boogerd_Fan

isnt that the point why there is Monfort and Posthuma in the break? I'm thinking we'll see something from the SChlecks on the izoard, with those 2 picking up wind duties in the valley.

im hoping...

gesink on a much better day, climbing near the front so far.
smarauder68

Levi makes a half hearted attempt to bridge the gap...looks like he's being joined by a few...
Severo

70kmph wrote:
...elimination race for MC. Leipheimer still fighting!


They should make a devil take the hindmost race on each mountain.
phildange

Contador in the bottom of the peloton !
He's been to the doc's lorry this morning . Either he is doing a big bluff, and that's the promise of something, either his knee is painful and it's over .
Boogerd_Fan

Gesink!!!!!!
70kmph

LOL
ullrichfan

Boogerd_Fan wrote:
Gesink!!!!!!


Didn't some wise forum member say he might try something today?
Bartali

Any one else think they are crazy letting one of the favourites like Levi get in the break?  


Wink
70kmph

Sky is go to up the pace some more
smarauder68

Anybody think the winner will come from the Gesink/Leipheimer group?

I don't think they'll ever make the catch and probably get swept up by the peleton before the summit of the 2nd climb.
Severo

TV with Vanendert and Gilbert. Pow.
Biosphere

smarauder68 wrote:
Anybody think the winner will come from the Gesink/Leipheimer group?


Not without Jean Jeanie dropping back.
HuwB

So far, the stage is way better than I'd expected.

Contador, I reckon if he's riding at the back, but leaving his boys towards the front, then he is reprising Armstrong's 2001 piece of theatre.

Gets the LEOTARD juices flowing and working far earlier than they should.

Oh look, Frank Schleck having another hissy at the camera.
Bartali

Has Cav got over the Agnel yet?
kathy

Break only has 5 minutes.  No way can I see them staying out there.
smarauder68

Bouet got away with no problem...I'm surprised nobody tried to join him.
Severo

Bartali wrote:
Has Cav got over the Agnel yet?


He's in a group of four right at the back. Doubtless Eisel is with him but not looking good for him.
smarauder68

dissapointed that nobody in the top 10 has made any real move yet...they're making it very easy for Voekler!
Bartali

Ouch ... not in the bus ... thats bad for him.
HuwB

Jens and Stuey make Linus and Jakob the first casualties of their increase in pace.
Meanwhile, JP continues to fry himself pulling the break.
Great LEOTARD tactics once again.
smarauder68

from the remaining escapees, I think the Belgian Devenyns looks the best and most likely to go alone next...
Biosphere

HuwB wrote:
So far, the stage is way better than I'd expected.

Contador, I reckon if he's riding at the back, but leaving his boys towards the front, then he is reprising Armstrong's 2001 piece of theatre.

Gets the LEOTARD juices flowing and working far earlier than they should.


Does he reckon the Schlecks are too young to have seen that one Wink
phildange

Andy goes
smarauder68

Andy sending a big middle finger to all the doubters on this forum right now...including me....lol
70kmph

...leopar trek plz
HuwB

Andy attacks with 60kms to go...................so nobody reacts
Finally, Bertie stops sand bagging.
Bartali

... and here we go.  Suicide mission from AS ... so all their eggs in the FS basket.
smarauder68

Voekler isolated now...no more teammates around....
smarauder68

Contador and Evans must reckon they can catch Andy on the descent...
Bartali

Bassos sent Symd up ...
smarauder68

Andy must think that AC is  having a bad day...maybe he's right?
Severo

Just when I go to make lunch (structural reasons stopped me doing so before) the action starts...
smarauder68

How brilliant would Andy have been to be bluffing poor form all season and early in this tour just for this occasion???

AC letting him go because he reckons they'll catch him on the descent...

I love the move by Andy! At least he's got some guts!
mazda

smarauder68 wrote:
Andy must think that AC is  having a bad day...maybe he's right?

Surely he's attacking Evans ?
70kmph

It a long way to the finish ...55k
ullrichfan

Yep SM, death or glory!  This is proper cycling from him at last!
smarauder68

shockingly casual reaction from AC, TV, CE and SS....I never thought this was possible!
HuwB

Hats off to Schleckette. Hell of a gamble, but the potential rewards are huge.
Much now depends on alliances within the leader's group.
Headwind all the way.
Bartali

Good attack ...
cyclingtv

and let's not forget that he has two helpers up the road
with which to help out over that flat bit into the headwinds..
Boogerd_Fan

finally... with the bonus that any work the favourites use to get him back will be the launchpad for Frank's attack on the MTF.

2mins already... erm.. this is super!
Geraint

Ajde Andy
Boogerd_Fan

go Andy go!!!!!!!
smarauder68

This puts pressure on AC and CE...they'll have to take risks on the descent...
cyclingtv

I put andy in virtual yellow.. for the time being..

my bad he's still 30 sec's or so out of yellow..
but 30 sec or so ahead of cadel..
gerry12ie

Why am I in fucking work???????
smarauder68

Contadope AWOL today...
HuwB

EE have 3 and the other breakaways won't play ball with Andy.
How far can Monfort go, into this headwind?
Bartali

gerry12ie wrote:
Why am I in fucking work???????


I have absolutely no idea Gerry.  Why are you at work?
cyclingtv

andy should of kept posthuma with him.. me thinks..
70kmph

Snatchez chatting with AC !, changing bikes
SlowRower

smarauder68 wrote:
This puts pressure on AC and CE...they'll have to take risks on the descent...


Not necessarily, though I doubt they'll be hanging around! I would guess that someone on their teams is crunching numbers relating to Andy's rate of ascent and power output during his attack to work out whether he's likely to keep going or blow up. There aren't too many secrets about each rider's sustainable power output I'd imagine.

It's analogous to a marathon runner deciding whether to follow an increase in pace several miles from the finish. If someone accelerated away at sub 2 hour pace, rivals would be unlikely to follow, as the odds would be overwhelmingly in favour of the attacker blowing up. Conversely, if the attacker had only speeded up to his PB pace, the rivals would have no reason to expect he'd not keep going.

Harder to crunch the numbers correctly in respect of a stage like this as there are so many more unknowns, which should make for an interesting final climb. Smile
Geraint

Phil: We have not seen any significant work from Evans so far today.

What Phil, you expect to see some from him?  Surprised
Severo

Why has my stream broken in the past 30 mins? Why do I live in a house that doesn't have any sports channels?
berck

AS is gaining time on the yellow group in the decent! Who would have thought that?
gerry12ie

Severo wrote:
Why has my stream broken in the past 30 mins? Why do I live in a house that doesn't have any sports channels?


See Bart's reply to me... Wink
smarauder68

How long will Andy toil with this group?

I reckon he'll go solo in a few minutes and pass Iglinsky...
HuwB

The more I think about it, the more I think that Andy may be falling on his sword for Frank.
Fontfroide

Windy in the valley,non?
Good for us for sure, but for Andy, we have to wait another half hour or more.  Good racing.  Very Happy
cyclingtv

huw.. might be the 'b' plan.. as of right now andy in virtual yellow..
Bartali

That's my call Huw.  They are riding well because they are willing to sacrifice one for the other.  Of course, if they don't start putting the hammer down it might not be a sacrifice!
smarauder68

HuwB wrote:
The more I think about it, the more I think that Andy may be falling on his sword for Frank.


No way! He's going for personal gains on the rest...

       justcycling.myfastforum.org Forum Index -> The 3 GT´s Page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Page 1 of 4
Create your own free forum | Buy a domain to use with your forum