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HuwB

Stage 16:Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux Gap 162.5 km:July 19th




Mountain passes & Hills
Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux Gap - 162.5 km

   Km 151.0 - Col de Manse - 9.5 km climb to 5.2% - Category 2


[/b]

Quote:
The opinion of Jean-François Pescheux: For an "old" rogue

"This is the beginning of the last week. The route passes through Gap, crossed the Col de Manse, descends and returns to the finish line after a short loop. As we head into the Alps, the stage, obviously, is not flat but is not very hard either, slightly uphill. It will be a runner for more style or Flecha Garcia Acosta, short for old rogues who spend less correctly collar. Attention, it often happens something after the second rest day, even the unexpected. In 2003, we remember that to avoid being caught in the fall of Beloki, Lance Armstrong had engaged in a dramatic sequence of cyclocross across the fields. "
HuwB

Right, no more moaning about missing picks.
I have used the maximum poll options.
Get on with it.

One more bit of info:
The weather for tomorrow is forecast to be foul.
Very heavy rain possible.
Breakaway may not get chased. (If the Schlecks have anything to do with it)
Nolte

my prediction:
a group of 17 riders (so that all the maillot vert points are taken) will go away first thing. no real battle at the start and be allowed to. they will gain 20 minutes and no one will be bothered

and then julien el fares wins in gap.
berck

Ok, old topic deleted...
kathy

I don't appreciate the topic being deleted after I've posted on it!
MAILLOT JAUNE

I agree kathy. Regardless of whether I've posted or not, I still want to be able to read the various posts by other folk.
HuwB

MAILLOT JAUNE wrote:
I agree kathy. Regardless of whether I've posted or not, I still want to be able to read the various posts by other folk.


Nothing to see read. Kathy points out I hadn't put Gilbert in the poll, Bart agreed, MJM said I could edit the poll if no one had yet voted, someone had, so I said new thread.

There you have it. No actual observations about the stage.

Now, since no one else has posted anything about the race.

I see tomorrow and stage 17 as potentially Voeckler attacking territory. A lot has been said about can he hold on, but can he squeeze out a bit more time, before the 2 main MTFs and the ITT?
Quite possibly a wet descent, tomorrow and a very technical descent into Pinerolo. Give a big dig about a km from the top, isolate those duff descending Schlecks and drop them, or tease out an error?
Basso............er...............wet downhill?.......

No doubt Samu/Cunego will have similar thoughts.
berck

Sorry, guys, I could have moved the posts and should have. I saw the message from HuwB about deleting and didn't think about moving the comments. My apologies.
smarauder68

I'm starting to think Stage 16 sets up brilliantly for Thor....We know he won't get dropped on the Cat 2 climb and after watching him descend the other day, I can't think of anybody faster from the top of the climb to the race finish.

The only question for me is if the Peleton will keep any breaks within striking range...I'm thinking that any break will have a hard time grinding out a huge advantage because the profile of the stage shows that its pretty consistently going up and up.  Plus with a Intermediate Sprint, we could see the break get pulled back in by Pharma Lotto who will be banking on a stage win for Gilbert, along with Intermediate sprint points.

If the peleton can keep any breaks within 2 minutes to start the final climb, I think they can cut make the catch by the top of the summit and a select group (Thor, Gilbert, Sanchez) will contest a stage win in Gap.

Would be interesting to see Voekler in that group but I suspect we'll see TV marking Evans and Schleck.
MAILLOT JAUNE

berck wrote:
Sorry, guys, I could have moved the posts and should have. I saw the message from HuwB about deleting and didn't think about moving the comments. My apologies.
No worries berck. It was the easiest option at the time, but I just think, what is the point in deleting a thread - just leave it there and it'll eventually disappear in it's own good time.
gerry12ie

Well we know that Evans and Gilbert can do this...


Link
Bartali

HuwB wrote:
I see tomorrow and stage 17 as potentially Voeckler attacking territory ... Give a big dig about a km from the top, isolate those duff descending Schlecks and drop them, or tease out an error?  Basso............er...............wet downhill?.......  No doubt Samu/Cunego will have similar thoughts.


Agreed ... only that TV will push too hard and come unstuck like he nearly did last week.  11km descent is definitely Samu/Cunego territory, but not sure how technical it is.  Anyone know?
berck

MAILLOT JAUNE wrote:
berck wrote:
Sorry, guys, I could have moved the posts and should have. I saw the message from HuwB about deleting and didn't think about moving the comments. My apologies.
No worries berck. It was the easiest option at the time, but I just think, what is the point in deleting a thread - just leave it there and it'll eventually disappear in it's own good time.


Yes true. Having thought about it, I could have locked the thread keeping people from posting in it. I also could have slightly renamed it too. Lessons learned...
smarauder68

Bartali wrote:
HuwB wrote:
I see tomorrow and stage 17 as potentially Voeckler attacking territory ... Give a big dig about a km from the top, isolate those duff descending Schlecks and drop them, or tease out an error?  Basso............er...............wet downhill?.......  No doubt Samu/Cunego will have similar thoughts.


Agreed ... only that TV will push too hard and come unstuck like he nearly did last week.  11km descent is definitely Samu/Cunego territory, but not sure how technical it is.  Anyone know?


Why do you discount Thor and Gilbert or Evans? I get Samu and Cunego to some extent...but I think Thor(being the biggest and fastest sprinter) would clearly have an edge on any descent.
Bartali

Its afair point SM and I didn't mean to discount them per se.  If the peloton (or most of it) goes over the hill in a big group, then some of the big guys may well come to the fore.

I was predicting a very fast climb with a Cunego/Samu attack near the top (like Cunego in the ToS).  Evans?  Certainly capable of such a move, but given his ITT ability and relatively high placing I'd suggest he might be a bit more conservative.
smarauder68

One thing we've seen in this tour...parity! None of the top 10 can really create any significant gaps...That should allow for someone like Thor to hang on and then make his move on the descent.
hengispod

gerry12ie wrote:
Well we know that Evans and Gilbert can do this...


Link


wow, that would give quite a buzz.
get out of the bloody way, motorbike!
HuwB

Bartali wrote:

Agreed ... only that TV will push too hard and come unstuck like he nearly did last week.  11km descent is definitely Samu/Cunego territory, but not sure how technical it is.  Anyone know?


The Gap descent isn't very technical, but apparently, Pinerolo is difficult.
However, another factor comes into play, as Letour confirm unseasonably awful weather for this very dry part of France.Shocked

kathy

berck wrote:
Sorry, guys, I could have moved the posts and should have. I saw the message from HuwB about deleting and didn't think about moving the comments. My apologies.


No worries, Berck, or Huw!.  Can you lock threads here, so that no one else can post.  Then it could have been left to disappear off the page.

To repeat my post - I fancy Gilbert for the stage (I just pointed out that the original options didn't give me an opportunity to vote in the poll!)
nicedommie

breakaway. noone will chase - the main players will play it 100% defensive as will TV.

but what do i know. i'm just a little englander. perhaps cav will win a bunch sprint.
gerry12ie

nicedommie wrote:
breakaway. noone will chase - the main players will play it 100% defensive as will TV.

but what do i know. i'm just a little englander. perhaps cav will win a bunch sprint.


Very Happy  Very Happy
TNG

nicedommie wrote:



but what do i know. i'm just a little englander. perhaps cav will win a bunch sprint.


As a fellow little englander, we can but hope!  Very Happy
SlowRower

TNG wrote:
nicedommie wrote:



but what do i know. i'm just a little englander. perhaps cav will win a bunch sprint.


As a fellow little englander, we can but hope!  Very Happy


Indeed, but even my terminal optimism has its bounds. Sad
Fontfroide

I keep wondering if I were riding and Thor was there at the top and he tried to make a bit of space, I would be on his rear reflector like a flash if I wanted to win the stage.  Mind you with the way he descends Thor would not need much space.  In any case, I am pretty sure Thor has got what he wants out of the Tour.  What more could he get, other than the green jersey, what?

Anyway if the forecast is right we won't see a fast descent.  Surely these guys have seen enough crashes.
behemoth

I heard Vaughters say that Thor's computer data showed that he was up to 112 kph.  I don't know what the typical max speeds are on descents like that, but that sounds damn fast to me.
Mrs John Murphy

TNG wrote:
nicedommie wrote:



but what do i know. i'm just a little englander. perhaps cav will win a bunch sprint.


As a fellow little englander, we can but hope!  Very Happy


Maybe you could ask for a Green Rinse instead of a Blue Rinse in Frodo's honour?
TNG

Good idea, but tempting fate methinks. The fat lady hasn't even started warming up yet....
hengispod

behemoth wrote:
I heard Vaughters say that Thor's computer data showed that he was up to 112 kph.  I don't know what the typical max speeds are on descents like that, but that sounds damn fast to me.


vaughters said he was going typically 20/30 kph faster than garmin teammates on the descents!
mazda

This comment just appeared on the livecyclingnews text feed

"We're hearing on French radio that an ASO employee has been found dead in Gap and an investigation has been launched. We'll bring you more details as soon as we can. "
smarauder68

mazda wrote:
This comment just appeared on the livecyclingnews text feed

"We're hearing on French radio that an ASO employee has been found dead in Gap and an investigation has been launched. We'll bring you more details as soon as we can. "


Suffocated by khakis?
smarauder68

Reports of snow in the Alps...Sounds like Global Warming or "Climate Change" would be a good thing for Europe this year.

No breaks let loose yet...I reckon Pharma will be protecting Gilbert's interests.
Nolte

dries devenys is attacking for quickstep. i think a bad move and he probably should wait for tomorrow.

not that i'm biased in anyway Wink
mazda

dum de dum
smarauder68

The race organizers are considering cutting the stage short....If they do, they will bypass the Cat 2 climb and finish in Gap the first time the race passes thru.  That would be a travesty...How bad can the weather be in Mid July????
Nolte

leonardo duckie duque's crashed.
Nolte

Roche is on the attack with a group of about 10. vacansoleil, garmin, cofidis, rabibank, fdj, sky and euskaltel represented
Nolte

astana and saur also up there

sadly not getting away

13 riders in lead group, 2 groups of 2 coming up. about 20 second gap on peloton

attack by astana and garmin rider from lead group
Nolte

70km left. hagen dasz hushovd and jose joaquin rojas gil are now in the lead group
HuwB

Some really daft, hectic racing. FDJ leave Jeanneson as the only man in the potential break of the day, who would be chased and lose out with Roy.
At the moment, they are playing into Phil Gil's hands.
mazda

Won't HTC go for the intermediate sprint points soon ?
smarauder68

Thor is off the front by 10 secs trying to bridge the break...I love it! Go Thor!
mazda

Looks like we have our break ...
smarauder68

The peleton have finally let the break go...gap is up to 35 seconds and climbing...Thor a massive favorite now for the Intermediate Sprint points and Stage win.
Nolte

gap at 1'23
smarauder68

Over 2 minutes now...The Peleton have basically crawled to a halt...Conflicting reports as to whether Rojas made the break...

Favorites for the Stage win:

1)Thor...should be able to get away on the descent.
2)EBH...Can probably out sprint Thor if there's a group sprint.
3)Martin...Might ride away on the descent.
4)Roy...Might be the best climber in the break...
5)Rojas???
Nolte

i don't think he has. i can't see a movistar jersey in it
kathy

Rojas was in the break initially, but then sat up.
smarauder68

The Gap has grown to 4 minutes...Who has the best chance of beating Thor?
smarauder68

So much for the Intermediate Sprint today....
mazda

Not far to go if they are thinking of truncating the stage.
I suppose they could truncate at the top of the hill if it is the descent they are worried about.
smarauder68

I think its too late to truncate it...Wouldn't be fair...

Will any of the top 10 in GC take any chances on the descent to gain a minute or so?

I reckon Sammy might...If Voekler goes, we'll know he intends to keep Yellow.
Fontfroide

smarauder68 wrote:
The Gap has grown to 4 minutes...Who has the best chance of beating Thor?


the other Norwegian
phildange

The descent will be very dangerous . All this water on the ground is thrown up to the riders faces by the wheels in front and they won't see a thing in the peloton . A man ready to take risks can gain time, or leave the race .
cyclingtv

if tommy goes for it on that final
decent all hell will break loose..

got to like sammy's chances in
that case if he stays upright..

while the schlecks would be
crapping in  their chamois's  

evans might do well..

basso not so much..
smarauder68

Ignatiev has left his break compatriots behind...he's going alone now from the base of the climb...Looks like he's already opened up 200m on the 9 chasers.

Finally some good news for Katusha. Looks like a stage win.
smarauder68

I spoke too soon...Ignatiev looks to be tiring...Looks like all 10 will be together again...
smarauder68

Contador attacks the Peleton!!!!
Boogerd_Fan

Interesting to see AG2r lead the chase. A French winner would mean so much to all French teams? Even if it is Voeckler? He is hardly liked in the peloton, I’m surprised anyone is up for making deals with Europcar at this stage.
Boogerd_Fan

smarauder68 wrote:
Contador attacks the Peleton!!!!


So we know he had beef gulas for his dinner yesterday Wink
HuwB

Damn! Contador woke me up! Laughing
smarauder68

Basso dropped as the peleoton reduces to 6 leaders...AC, Schlecks, Sanchez, Evans, TV>.

Basso is dropped!
Fontfroide

Good viewing when there are two races at the end.
smarauder68

pace at the front drops...Peleton all together again...

meanwhile, Haejadahl has caught and passed Ignatiev and seems to be going for the stage win...

This is a great stage!
cyclingtv

bout friggin time..
smarauder68

The Schlecks have been gapped....Evans, AC and Sanchez are riding away!
Boogerd_Fan

At least that clears up who was sandbagging so far...
HuwB

Big, big trouble for the Schlecks. 3 top descenders against them and Basso. Embarassed
smarauder68

EBH and Thor catch Haesjadahl on the descent...

1 of those 3 will win the stage!
mazda

That's how you make a selection !
3 big attacks - power climb or otherwise.
smarauder68

Roads are dry suddenly on the descent...Haesjadahl's presence makes me think Thor will let him win...
HuwB

Frank flummoxed. Embarassed
Voeckler getting off the front!
Boogerd_Fan

the last thing a panicked Schleck needs now, is a wet descent hahaha!

While it is working the Schleck's over today, maybe it will be good for them in the long run, to determine that they need to work just for Andy?

Anyway, Evans by far the biggest winner so far. Depends how well everyone descends - and if in one piece!?
smarauder68

THOR!!!!!!!!
smarauder68

Evans proving to be the best man this year in my opinion...That's an impressive gap he's opened up on AC and Samu...
ventoux

trying to follow this on CN's live feed - the feckin idiots didn't actually mention who won! "Good ride from Martin" is the only post race comment so far -I assume it was Thor???
Boogerd_Fan

what an appetizer for tomororw's Sestriere climb.. and of course.. the two MTFs' still to come!
Nolte

mazda wrote:
That's how you make a selection !
3 big attacks - power climb or otherwise.


and none of this attack for 5 seconds and then look back to see if you have permission

great riding today

i am concerned that rojas and gilbert may have missed out on points. we'll see at the end
SAP

Thor won
ventoux

thanks... CN still haven't mentioned it!
smarauder68

Thor beat EBH and Haesjadahl in a sprint quite comfortably.

Evans gapped AC and Samu but the pair of spaniards got it down to 5 seconds by the finish. The Schlecks and Basso all lost 45 to 55 seconds on Evans...
mazda

ventoux wrote:
thanks... CN still haven't mentioned it!


They did.

15:46:28 BST
Easier said than done. Never seen Ryder lead it out and Hushovd goes, and he's going to take the win. What a win! Another win for the world champion, Hagen second, Ryder, and then Martin in 4th. Good chase from him.
HuwB

Andy drops a minute on that descent and tomorrow is much trickier.
Picked Thor in the stage poll, then FP'd Tom de Gendt. Embarassed
Good Tour this! Smile

Edit: Andy now leads Contador by.......................39 seconds!
Boogerd_Fan

Their automatic feed is very dodgy. I also missed that one, but got others reporting Evans' finish.
After a while they're all visible.
cyclingtv

andy loses over a minute on the big gc threats..
mazda

Nolte wrote:
i am concerned that rojas and gilbert may have missed out on points. we'll see at the end


Think they got 14th and 15th ???
Nolte

SAP wrote:
Thor won


the garmin idea was hushovd to follow hagen dasz when sprint but hagen didn't start his sprint as early as hesjedal/hushovd wanted so that's when hushovd went for it.

if i was a commentator that stage would be a nightmare. hagen dasz, hushovd and hesjedal
smarauder68

Frank lost 2nd place to Evans...Andy might have lost a minute on Evans.
SlowRower

Nolte wrote:
if i was a commentator that stage would be a nightmare. hagen dasz, hushovd and hesjedal


Smile
ventoux

Sorry to bang on, but this is the CN live text commentary covering the finish...

15:44:52 BST
The leading trio are all looking at each other. they have 1km to go.

15:45:14 BST
Ryder leading out. He should open it up.
1km remaining from 163km

15:45:30 BST
They need Hagen at the front.

15:46:38 BST
Very good ride from Martin.

15:46:59 BST
Now the battle for yellow and Evans is clear of Contador and Sanchez.
HuwB

1. HUSHOVD Thor 51 TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO 3h 31' 38"
2. HAGEN Edvald Boasson 114 SKY PROCYCLING 3h 31' 38" + 00' 00"
3. HESJEDAL Ryder 55 TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO 3h 31' 40" + 00' 02"
4. MARTIN Tony 175 HTC - HIGHROAD 3h 32' 16" + 00' 38"
5. IGNATYEV Mikhail 195 KATUSHA TEAM 3h 32' 30" + 00' 52"
6. PEREZ LEZAUN Alan 24 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 3h 33' 03" + 01' 25"
7. ROY Jérémy 138 FDJ 3h 33' 03" + 01' 25"
8. MARCATO Marco 206 VACANSOLEIL-DCM 3h 33' 33" + 01' 55"
9. DEVENYNS Dries 125 QUICK STEP CYCLING TEAM 3h 33' 33" + 01' 55"
10. GRIVKO Andriy 64 PRO TEAM ASTANA 3h 33' 36" + 01' 58"
11. EVANS Cadel 141 BMC RACING TEAM 3h 36' 01" + 04' 23"
12. CONTADOR Alberto 1 SAXO BANK SUNGARD 3h 36' 04" + 04' 26"
13. SANCHEZ Samuel 21 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 3h 36' 04" + 04' 26"
14. ROJAS Jose Joaquin 88 MOVISTAR TEAM 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
15. GILBERT Philippe 32 OMEGA PHARMA - LOTTO 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
16. TAARAMAE Rein 151 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
17. VELITS Peter 179 HTC - HIGHROAD 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
18. VOECKLER Thomas 181 TEAM EUROPCAR 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
19. RUIJGH Rob 208 VACANSOLEIL-DCM 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
20. URAN Rigoberto 118 SKY PROCYCLING 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
21. VANENDERT Jelle 38 OMEGA PHARMA - LOTTO 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
22. SCHLECK Frank 18 TEAM LEOPARD-TREK 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
23. CUNEGO Damiano 161 LAMPRE - ISD 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
24. COPPEL Jérôme 211 SAUR-SOJASUN 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
25. PERAUD Jean-Christophe 108 AG2R LA MONDIALE 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
26. MARTINEZ Egoi 23 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
27. JEANNESSON Arnold 134 FDJ 3h 36' 22" + 04' 44"
28. DANIELSON Tom 52 TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO 3h 36' 40" + 05' 02"
29. GUSEV Vladimir 194 KATUSHA TEAM 3h 36' 55" + 05' 17"
30. BASSO Ivan 91 LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE 3h 36' 55" + 05' 17"
31. ROLLAND Pierre 188 TEAM EUROPCAR 3h 36' 55" + 05' 17"
32. DUPONT Hubert 103 AG2R LA MONDIALE 3h 36' 55" + 05' 17"
33. THOMAS Geraint 117 SKY PROCYCLING 3h 36' 55" + 05' 17"
34. VANDE VELDE Christian 58 TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO 3h 36' 55" + 05' 17"
35. MONFORT Maxime 15 TEAM LEOPARD-TREK 3h 37' 10" + 05' 32"
36. SCHLECK Andy 11 TEAM LEOPARD-TREK 3h 37' 10" + 05' 32"
MS

Andy lost 1:07.

Good bye.

Sanchez a legit shot at the final podium.
mazda

ventoux wrote:
Sorry to bang on, but this is the CN live text commentary covering the finish...

15:44:52 BST
The leading trio are all looking at each other. they have 1km to go.

15:45:14 BST
Ryder leading out. He should open it up.
1km remaining from 163km

15:45:30 BST
They need Hagen at the front.

15:46:38 BST
Very good ride from Martin.

15:46:59 BST
Now the battle for yellow and Evans is clear of Contador and Sanchez.

Bang on all you like.
This is what is on my screen

15:46:38 BST
Very good ride from Martin.
15:46:28 BST
Easier said than done. Never seen Ryder lead it out and Hushovd goes, and he's going to take the win. What a win! Another win for the world champion, Hagen second, Ryder, and then Martin in 4th. Good chase from him.
15:45:30 BST
They need Hagen at the front.

Smile
smarauder68

I think we just saw the podium guys finishing together in 11th, 12th, and 13th....

11)Evans
12)AC
13)Sanchez
Boogerd_Fan

Voeckler still in yellow, but they'll be happy to see he was not able to follow on the climb. With the 2 MTF's still to come its hard to see how he'll survive.

Unless Evans cracks big time, he is going to win this. Fairplay if he does.

The only card Schleck's can still play is Frank to attack - Evans has to react, but the issue with that is by softening Evans its opening the door not only to Andy anymore Smile  Or will they even ride for Frank now??

How did Andy lose a minute on teh descent? Just cos he didn't have the stones?

Great stuff!
ventoux

mazda wrote:

Bang on all you like.
This is what is on my screen

15:46:38 BST
Very good ride from Martin.
15:46:28 BST
Easier said than done. Never seen Ryder lead it out and Hushovd goes, and he's going to take the win. What a win! Another win for the world champion, Hagen second, Ryder, and then Martin in 4th. Good chase from him.
15:45:30 BST
They need Hagen at the front.

Smile


The crucial comment was missing from the mobile site...  OK, I know what happened.. I'll stop now.... sounds like I should have been watching though, but can't get a feed in the office...  Crying or Very sad
Mrs John Murphy

LOL serves the Schleck's right for dicking around on 14.

Karma bites you on the arse.
Fontfroide

I call that a very entertaining finish.  Full of symbols and even some time differences.  One two for Norway.
MS

Boogerd_Fan wrote:
Voeckler still in yellow, but they'll be happy to see he was not able to follow on the climb. With the 2 MTF's still to come its hard to see how he'll survive.

Unless Evans cracks big time, he is going to win this. Fairplay if he does.

The only card Schleck's can still play is Frank to attack - Evans has to react, but the issue with that is by softening Evans its opening the door not only to Andy anymore Smile  Or will they even ride for Frank now??

How did Andy lose a minute on teh descent? Just cos he didn't have the stones?

Great stuff!


It's a technical descent as it is and it was wet. But the decisive point came when Schleck couldn't match the accelerations on the ascent.
HuwB

In the Pyrenees, we had the Schlecks,
In the Alps, we have Contador.

That will be the unfortunate difference for courageous Thomas Voeckler.
(Maybe, Cadel too, although he's looking great at the mo)
smarauder68

I can't help but think that Thor could have seriously challenged Cav for Green if he would have seriously contested it.  I guess he's been there, done that and values stage wins like today more than a jersey.

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