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pantanifan

In, out, shake it all about?

So Mr. Cameron has finished his negotiations with EU leaders and the UK has its long awaited (by some) referendum on EU membership. Which way will you vote?
Fontfroide

Seems to me everyone or nearly everyone in the UK has made up their mind already and the various trivial negotiations will change the mind of no one.  Sadly I have no idea which way it will go,  Brits are such oddballs.  Hardly any French people even get the idea of why the UK is outside or inside the Schengen area, and also outside or inside the Euro area, but worse, outside or inside the EC.  They think Brits are strange.

I myself am mystified by a whole country, or much of it, which thinks that being part of a joke British democracy is any better worse than a joke European one.  They are both run by the same people, the rich and the "bien pensant" .  On the other hand, at least the fake Democrats in the UK speak English.

I am for staying in, otherwise (as a British European) I imagine I will have loads of little niggling hassles with my pension, my health care, and overall with living in France peacefully.  Although I am sure I won't have to sell up and move back to the UK.  It won't be that bad, just loads of niggling bullshit.  I can even survive a moderate dip in the pound, which is bound to be a possible result.  I have had my income drop drastically three times in my life already.  

Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  

Should be a little bit interesting though as it appears that the Labour bosses, the Tory bosses, the business bosses are all in favour of Europe.  So who exactly is against?

PS  Sorry, "bien pensant" is  "Someone who accepts and/or espouses a fashionable idea after it has been established and maintains it without a great amount of critical thought."  "Opinion leaders", in France people who are from the same schools, and schools of thought, the Republican worshippers, whether they vote left or right.
gerry12ie

Fontfroide wrote:


Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  



This.  salut

I believe that what seems like a majority of Brits take a Marxist view (Groucho not Karl) of the EU that they don't want to be in a club that would have them as a member, and they will exit.

Only time will tell if that proves to be a good or bad thing.
Fontfroide

gerry12ie wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:


Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  



This.  salut

I believe that what seems like a majority of Brits take a Marxist view (Groucho not Karl) of the EU that they don't want to be in a club that would have them as a member, and they will exit.

Only time will tell if that proves to be a good or bad thing.


I do agree, only time will tell, so we wait.  I, for one, still dread the bureaucratic hassles I will face if the UK votes out.  Partly depends on who you want to salute.

Is there a big agitation or any sort to get out in Ireland?  Just curious.
SlowRower

Fontfroide wrote:
So who exactly is against?


Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and George Galloway.  Shocked
SlowRower

I voted to stay. We'll get screwed by the French in exit negotiations, so the land of milk and honey promised by the "Leave" faction will not be achieved.
Fontfroide

SlowRower wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:
So who exactly is against?


Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and George Galloway.  Shocked


Now those are some guys I would follow to the end of the earth. Laughing
Bartali

Benn puts it very eloquently .... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f0wFii8klNg
Boogerd_Fan

Here in slovakia the current governing party is even using the UK referendum as part of their policy for re-election. Argument being they have "connections" and will react the best whether its Yes or No.

They have 3 priorities for re-election:
- solve immigration (quite easy considering we didn't let any Syrians in, despite pressure from EU)
- solve unemployment (they promise a new multinational company is coming to SK on a big contract to generate jobs)
- react to WTF is going wrong in England Very Happy
Slapshot 3

Too many similarities to that clusterf*ck of an Independence referendum we had in Scotland a couple of years back. I voted no then because I signed up to UK PLC 30 years ago and can't see benefit of an independant Scotland especially after Kim Jock Eck's $130 per barrel of Brent Crude to underpin Independence fell flat on it's face.

However, I'll probably vote to go with this one. I've never believed in the benefit of the EU, there's maybe a level of ignorance to that but I don't see the benefits. It seems we do everything to suit every other country rather than ourselves, we capitualate far too easily. It certainly seems that other countries are far better off than we are. Just a view point, I guess what will be will be
SlowRower

Slapshot 3 wrote:
Just a view point, I guess what will be will be


It's a tough one is this. Unlike usual votes in the UK, there is no realistic way for one side to try and bribe the other with someone else's money. So it boils down to tangibles such as economics (and economists can't even predict the past, so there are no certainties here) or intangibles such as "regaining sovereignty" which are inherently hard to quantify.

It doesn't help that the Eurozone, which dominates the rest of the EU is such a f*** up. If the vote was to merge with Germany, the economic case would be much easier to make. Though perhaps the political one would be "challenging". Smile
Fontfroide

Slapshot 3 wrote:
Too many similarities to that clusterf*ck of an Independence referendum we had in Scotland a couple of years back. I voted no then because I signed up to UK PLC 30 years ago and can't see benefit of an independant Scotland especially after Kim Jock Eck's $130 per barrel of Brent Crude to underpin Independence fell flat on it's face.

However, I'll probably vote to go with this one. I've never believed in the benefit of the EU, there's maybe a level of ignorance to that but I don't see the benefits. It seems we do everything to suit every other country rather than ourselves, we capitualate far too easily. It certainly seems that other countries are far better off than we are. Just a view point, I guess what will be will be


Of course you will vote as you like, but within your statement of apparent facts, there are a number that are seriously contested by not stupid people who are somewhat informed.  I am not a big worshipper of "facts", since they seem to be lying around waiting to be picked up by nearly everyone for nearly any reason.  There are nearly five million Brits living abroad, a huge minority in Europe.  They get many benefits, and avoid many hassles.  Ask anyone who does.  Are they all going to move back?  Talk about "immigrant problems", it would be smart to let them stay abroad really.  Nearly every country can say that they don't get everything they want.  In fact, in Scotland, some might say the same of certain areas, certainly in England it is so.  Actually anyone living in the countryside nearly everywhere is screwed in many respects by big cities.  That is life.  The rich benefit and the poor do not, nothing to do with Europe.  As for being "far better off" in other countries, what do you use as an indicator of "better off"?  I promise I will look up the rankings to see if you are right.  I doubt you are.  As for the price of oil, anyone who makes a crucial decision based on the price of anything today, and projects that price into the distant future is a fool and you or I should never believe them.  Ever.  Prices, rates of exchange, new developments, who can say what anything will cost.  Incidentally, oil was at that price for a brief moment in 2008, and has been nowhere near there for years, easy enough to find out http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart  Not many think it will stay where it is forever.  Ooops, how would I know?  In any case, it is a fine resource to have, makes life way easier.  A Scot should be a bit happy about having oil and using it wisely.

But as for voting in or out, I still think nearly everyone has already decided, and few facts will change anything.  For my own convenience, I do hope England stays in, or at least semi-in like it is.  No Europe, no Schengen, it is already a bunch of folk who think they are way more special than the other various bunches of folk.  Maybe Europe would be better off with such a special group of people.

I should think the next referendum (sometime in the next ten years I suppose) will find Scotland out of the UK, so I wonder if Scotland will join Europe.
Slapshot 3

Hi FF, hope you are well...

Can I use the fishing industry and common fisheries policy as an example - Scotlands fishing industry is a shadow of what it was. A mate now has one boat fishing out of Oban, 15 years ago he ran 6 but has been forced to scale back due to the restrictions in catches net size etc etc. Now his biggest gripe is that despite their adherance to the law and the Common policy every other nation's fleets just overfish our fishing grounds anyway, especially the spanish fleet and they get away with it.

The relevance there is that was Ian to over fish or be out too many days the UK authorites would hammer him with penalties up to confiscation of his boat, now this minor situation from what I see, is mirrored across other places and industries that we as a nation capitualate to Europe in a way that no other country does, almost a fiscal appeasement.

Is this my own very sheltered view of what's happening?? Yes; but it's this that will make me consider my vote, I want facts, I want reason why it's worthwhile us staying in the EU a forging stronger links, I need to understand why rather than rely on a narrow view and the jingoism that's already rife!
mazda

I'll start with an unsubstantiated statement - there is a majority that 'feels' they want to leave, but we will vote to stay.

There are so few genuine facts out there, and given what we know about the way that people actually make decisions, of course voters will vote based on what they already feel.

Ideally this was never about whether Cameron delivered what he said he would and how good a deal he thinks he got (he was never going to come home and decide that we should leave). It should be about the whole thing, not the small changes at the margin.

However, these days "X or Y" elections are decided by swings at the margin, so I expect the same old electioneering strategems.

FF states that there isn't a readily available bribe fund available, but the arguments are certain to be phrased in terms of financial gain / loss, risk and reward scenarios will be targetted towards the groups of people deemed most likely to waver in their decision.
Fontfroide

No idea where I said anything about "bribing funds", but maybe I did.  I agree that nearly everyone has made up their mind, at least in private.  I also claim that no amount of data will swing it.

Oh yeah, I would have to read up lots to know anything about the fishing industry in Scotland, and have no idea about what Ian fishes for or why he might have lost a lot of business.  Best keep my mouth shut on that.

I suppose like all changes, someone will get screwed and someone won't.  No way everyone in the UK will be better off or worse off, and those who think they know if they will be better or worse off in terms of many are just guessing.
SlowRower

Fontfroide wrote:
No idea where I said anything about "bribing funds", but maybe I did.


I think that was my original comment.

In a General Election, the argument basically boils down to "Vote for us and we'll either cut your taxes or spend more money on you."

For this EU referendum, the same concept doesn't really apply as there will be no change in fiscal policy directly as a result of the referendum.
SlowRower

Slapshot 3 wrote:
Can I use the fishing industry and common fisheries policy as an example...


The UK got stitched up in negotiations to join the Common Market in respect of the Common Fisheries Policy. So desperate was Heath to join that he basically agreed to the clearly biased terms offered in this area. See "The Rotten Heart of Europe" by Bernard Connolly.

It is the negotiation side of leaving the EU that bothers me; history tells us that we'll get turned over again!
gerry12ie

But aren't TAC's (catch allowances) and quotas negotiated and agreed by the council of fisheries ministers?  IIRC the EU Fishery commission proposes the quotas, based on recommendations from various advisory and regulatory bodies - and the ministers then thrash out an agreement.  If there wasn't agreement over catch allowances and quotas then we (Ireland/UK/Iceland/Europe - whoever really) would have fished the bejasus out of the entire North Atlantic cod stock many years ago.

Food supply is a massively intricate beast, but if it was left solely to farmers and fishermen we would be only eating what they can most easily produce at the most profitable price.  Without quotas, TAC's and CAP's there would be market chaos because every farmer decided to grow wheat because it got the best return last season, or the fishermen just going out for whiting and binning the rest of the catch.

Fact is, every EU country probably thinks it's fisheries and agriculture are getting shafted - but they have pitifully short memories...
mr shifter

SlowRower wrote:


The UK got stitched up in negotiations to join the Common Market in respect of the Common Fisheries Policy. So desperate was Heath to join that he basically agreed to the clearly biased terms offered in this area. See "The Rotten Heart of Europe" by Bernard Connolly.

It is the negotiation side of leaving the EU that bothers me; history tells us that we'll get turned over again!

Yes of course we get stitched up, as usual but who cares.

We don't need the EU but they certainly need us.

We have stood alone before while they all let the master race control them.
We have been down the road before and have finally paid off the USA for all the borowings they made us have to give to Europe for War Damages. (Called the Marshall Plan)
We are an Island and have no Schengen or Euro currency which the scaremongers said would be our downfall.
Like Switzerland we can survive on the outside.

Cameron reminded me last week of the Benny Hill Sketches and his slapping the other guys head.
As our PM dashed from pillar to post with his bowl saying please sir can I have some more.
I really thought he had more common sense and could realise they were just taking the pyss out of him as he came home empty.

No discussion needed.......we are coming out and if he had taken that approach he would have got some respect instead of being the Euro Fool.

That's the way to do it like "Punch" keeps telling us.  joker
Fontfroide

One thing I  have noticed by reading a bit, and listening to Radio 4 Today programme is that this issue raises a lot of passion really fast.  

Must be hard to have discussions about it in the UK right now.  People must end up shouting at each other almost immediately.  Being all nationalistic and proud to be British and suspicious of foreigners and feeling hard done by.  And the other side sacrificing British sovereignty for no good reason.

Do lots of people feel so ripped off and outwitted and angry about all the other Europeans, or for that matter their own governments who have been outwitted for decades?   Maybe the problem is national, and not European after all?  

I know I am out of touch, but I am trying to figure it out.
mazda

Fontfroide wrote:

Do lots of people feel so ripped off and outwitted and angry about all the other Europeans, or for that matter their own governments who have been outwitted for decades?   Maybe the problem is national, and not European after all?

Don't despair FF.
I don't think it is entirely about Europe per se, certainly not an all encompassing dislike of Europeans.
People are looking for somewhere to pin the unpleasant side effects of both a globalizing, free market economy and a continuing urbanisation of the population. Politics is not providing any solutions.
In such an environment the offer of a referendum can seem like a bright beacon of opportunity.
Fontfroide

I promise not to despair.  I also understand something of the need to feel like there is some autonomy, some pride in the "being British", some sense of having control of something in a globalising world.  I do.  But the notion that with one swipe of the voting card, one can find a democratic, locally controlled reality just does not speak to me at all.  I also think that people should be pleased with the place they live in, and I like the idea of more referendums for more questions.

What troubles me is that anyone could really think, with serious reflection, that the sense of freedom and control, and some kind of increased sense of being British will be accomplished by leaving Europe and going it on our own.   Admittedly there will be slightly more English speaking rich people who control things than if we were in Europe.  But only slightly.  Heck, I keep hearing interviews with bosses of British companies, banks etc, and it seems like half of them are foreigners anyway. [/b]
mr shifter

Fontfroide wrote:
 Heck, I keep hearing interviews with bosses of British companies, banks etc, and it seems like half of them are foreigners anyway.
Listening to the BBC will only entrench your view to vote to stay in and nothing will arrive to change your selfish view regarding your financial arrangements to vote otherwise.  (sorry but that's what comes over in your posts)
To those of us who "want out", it is not so much a dislike of the continental  people but more about the way they make decisions.
We have watched for many decades how they cannot elect a government and finish up with decisions made from a committee that is constantly  changing because of disagreements.
The EU seems to us to be run by a gigantic committee of 30 odd associates (and all their staffs) on a gravy train between Brussels and their summer residence in Strassburg.
The weird mandates that come from this group we find puzzling to say the least that we have no recourse to change or vote on.
It always seems these decisions will cost us a larger share of the burden to implicate these decisions that we never asked for anyway.

If we could only get out then we would be governed by people we voted for and like the last 2 party government that was voted out because of too many inconsistencies that we didn't like.

On the continent they are used to being run by committees but we are not.
That the horrendous money sums we have to give the EU could be better used here in the UK and we seldom see a return that is comparable to our outlay.

Now tell me something:- Why is the European Führer always the German Chancellor to do the Media comments when this country puts almost the same monies into this Euro Union. ??
Photographs of EU delegates always have a central figue of a German Chancellor with the UK delegate hard to find.
This has happened with male Chancellors, ie Helmut Kohl.
I worked in Germany for almost 5 months with many other work related visits and had constant pyss taking like one day a big wave will completely obliterate this Island.
I devised my own comeback that I use if needed on my german visits.
ie:- This is a Funny Little Country isn't it and not even 200 hundred years old .  Shocked  Shocked
SlowRower

mr shifter wrote:
Now tell me something:- Why is the European Führer always the German Chancellor to do the Media comments when this country puts almost the same monies into this Euro Union. ??


I call Godwin's Law on this!  Very Happy

But seriously, Merkel always appears in the media as the issue in "Europe" are actually primarily to do with the Eurozone and more latterly Schengen, and we're not in either. Eurozone "solutions" inevitably involve money printing, which the Germans have to agree to given their national desire for "sound" money.

I have a lot of sympathy with your general observations about the nature of the EU snouts in the trough.
Fontfroide

mr shifter wrote:
Listening to the BBC will only entrench your view to vote to stay in and nothing will arrive to change your selfish view regarding your financial arrangements to vote otherwise.  (sorry but that's what comes over in your posts)


Lots of what you say requires a bit more thought, but if you don't mind, I shall reply to this cutting remark.  What exactly do you find selfish about thinking about my income (pension) which is in pounds and must be changed to euros for me to spend it?  I am at the mercy of the exchange rate, which just goes wonky every time the big financial cheeses think there is "uncertainty".  "Financial arrangements" makes it seem like I am not "just a pensioner", like you will be no doubt.  When you get older you will find your views change a bit.

My health care is paid for through a mutual agreement with all European states, so I flash my EHIC card and can get fixed up anywhere in Europe.  No one knows how that will work out, but it could not possibly be better for me now with all of Europe recognising all other countries for health care.   I can see my son in Portugal without buying insurance.  I can visit pals in the UK without worrying.  I can even slip across the border to Spain or Italy, knowing that if worse comes to worse, I will be cared for "as if I were a citizen of that country".  By the way, I have very expensive kidney transplant meds, not just the "odd chance" something might happen.

I will also have to get visas for travel to places, since my British passport will not be the same as it is now, when it has at the top of teh cover, "European Union".

So what is so wrong with voting for or against things that matter to me.  I can see easily how the tone can mount quickly in this "discussion" about Europe.  I have said more than once, that I think most minds are made up and people just pick "facts" that support their choice.  

Oh yes, did you know that the five million people Brits who live abroad can't vote in the UK if they have been living away for 15 years?  Who made that one up?

By the way, you have not really read my posts or you would know that I consider the same basic rascals run both the UK and the EU.  Names are harder to pronounce in the EU, but they are the same guys (and a few women).  Same companies, same politicians.  Same guys.  My choice is for a democratic decentralised Europe, but they don't often allow votes on breaking up huge countries like France and the UK.  Other than many little hassles for me and my French wife if you all vote "out", things will not change much.  There will be genuine democracy in neither UK in nor UK out.  Nor in the EU, with or without the UK.
SlowRower

Fontfroide wrote:
Oh yes, did you know that the five million people Brits who live abroad can't vote in the UK if they have been living away for 15 years?  Who made that one up?


I think that's quite generous tbh. If you've been living abroad for 15 years you're somewhat detached from your "home" country and it's reasonable for such detached folk not to vote on UK matters as there's nothing stopping you returning home if voting is so important.

I think if you've been living in France for 5 years legally and can pass a language test then you can become a French citizen. If being citizen of an EU state is that important then that's probably you're best route as you can't control the "leave" brigade.

Overall, there's around 1.25m UK folk live in EU countries, so the numbers affected by a vote to leave are actually quite small re freedom of movement and reciprocal healthcare. I don't think the rights/obligations of a UK citizen re the US, Australia, Dubai etc. will change.
Fontfroide

SlowRower wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:
Oh yes, did you know that the five million people Brits who live abroad can't vote in the UK if they have been living away for 15 years?  Who made that one up?


I think that's quite generous tbh. If you've been living abroad for 15 years you're somewhat detached from your "home" country and it's reasonable for such detached folk not to vote on UK matters as there's nothing stopping you returning home if voting is so important.

I think if you've been living in France for 5 years legally and can pass a language test then you can become a French citizen. If being citizen of an EU state is that important then that's probably you're best route as you can't control the "leave" brigade.

Overall, there's around 1.25m UK folk live in EU countries, so the numbers affected by a vote to leave are actually quite small re freedom of movement and reciprocal healthcare. I don't think the rights/obligations of a UK citizen re the US, Australia, Dubai etc. will change.


Odd that you think that living in another country, in spite of history, parents, siblings, children and frequent visits, makes people "somewhat detached" to their homeland.  I guess you basically have little experience with being a ex-pat or an immigrant, I suppose it is possible you don't even know any.  If you think that living in a place that is not your home means you forget your early years, your adult years, the team you support, the songs you know, and what the exchange rate is for your UK based income, then you need to re-think a bit.  I know well where my home is, the Lune Valley watershed.  Nothing will ever change that.   You are correct that I could become a French citizen, but it would be a joke, no one except bureaucrats would believe it.  You are correct that if I were not living in Europe nothing would change.  Maybe there should be a "detached test" for anyone voting.  Many Brits would fail, as it is pretty well known that a very high percentage of Brits are not happy living there.  More than in most countries.  

Accurate data on Brits living abroad is hard to find.  Everyone pretty much agrees with that.  I can give you guesses ranging from 250,000 to 500,000 for France.  I think it would be easy enough to give 2 million as a good guess for Europe.  But having studied it a bit, I admit it is hard to be sure.  Actually one tenth of Brits live abroad one way or another.  Voting is not that important to me, except when I am forbidden to do so.  You don't have to return "home", you can vote from abroad.  In France a European can vote for Euro MPs and for the local mayor, but not in referendums, national, regional or departmental elections.  They are thinking of changing this.

Your notion of what is quite small and can be ignored is just that.  Your opinion.  Even 1.25 million does not to me seem to be "quite small".

So if you met and married a foreign person and the foreign person wanted to live in their country for a bit or for 20 years, you would just tell them to leave you and do it?  A bit harsh, no?  Maybe forbid anyone to live abroad for more than a certain number of years?

But I am impressed by how fast things heat up on this issue.  Its a hot button issue if ever there was one.
mr shifter

Fontfroide wrote:
, I shall reply to this cutting remark.  What exactly do you find selfish about thinking about my income (pension) which is in pounds and must be changed to euros for me to spend it?  I am at the mercy of the exchange rate, which just goes wonky every time the big financial cheeses think there is "uncertainty".  "Financial arrangements" makes it seem like I am not "just a pensioner", like you will be no doubt.  When you get older you will find your views change a bit.
Sir I apologise if that word offended you but it was used because your posts seemed you needed to make a decision on how you might vote.
It was obvious that you will be intending to stay within this United States of Europe and this latest post has gone a long way to explain why.
I am too old to change my views as I past my "Sell By Date" some years ago and the result of this referendum will mean little to me .
I voted in the last referendum and I could see what a Liar Ted Heath is and then seen the vast amounts of money being handed to Europe that now have new motorways and railways which were pathetic in the 60's.

Quote:
In the months prior to Heath's betrayal the British public had not been convinced that they wanted their country to enter the EEC.
and this time it's Cameron who can't do anything to help us.
It's the younger generation I feel sorry for, as they know no better while they believe the media and the politicians.

I noted in recent months that the $ and the Swiss Frank are almost level and the Euro almost on parity also but the Euro has lost value recently.
Your pension fluctuations has made you better off recently than say 5 years ago.
SlowRower

Fontfroide wrote:
Odd that you think that living in another country, in spite of history, parents, siblings, children and frequent visits, makes people "somewhat detached" to their homeland.  I guess you basically have little experience with being a ex-pat or an immigrant, I suppose it is possible you don't even know any.


Life doesn't always pan out how you might like. If you want to vote, then come back to the UK. If you want to guarantee living in an EU state then take out French citizenship. At the moment, you can't be in a position to vote, live in France and guarantee EU citizenship (and everything that goes with that.) We all have to make choices and often the outcome we want isn't on offer so we have to chose from what's on offer.

I don't think it's an unreasonable position to say that if you've been living overseas for 15 years you can't vote in UK elections, simply becasue however much you might claim to be attached to the UK via visits and family, you've lived in a different country for half a generation so clearly lack commitment to the UK cause. Of the people who do live abroad, the vast majority will still have the right to vote due to relatively short periods out of the country. It's only long-time departees to foreign parts that can't vote and tbh, the UK electoral system has bigger concerns than folk in that category.
pantanifan

Fontfroide wrote:

If you think that living in a place that is not your home means you forget your early years, your adult years, the team you support, the songs you know, and what the exchange rate is for your UK based income, then you need to re-think a bit.  I know well where my home is, the Lune Valley watershed.  Nothing will ever change that.   You are correct that I could become a French citizen, but it would be a joke, no one except bureaucrats would believe it.


I know what you mean FF, I've lived in Hungary for over 15 years myself, but I'm happy with the 15-year cut-off point.

Referendums are about the future (and not the past) of the country and, although it's always possible that things will change (personal circumstances, etc.) and I or you will return to our home country, maybe we should let those who are more affected decide, i.e. people likely to be living there in future?

Edit: we should be allowed to give our 2 euro cents worth on Internet forums though  Wink
Nolte

This article cites the world bank as saying between 4.5 million and 5.5 million British people are resident abroad
https://www.statslife.org.uk/soci...there-in-other-people-s-countries

Whether those figures are accurate is another thing.
mr shifter

Fontfroide wrote:

Accurate data on Brits living abroad is hard to find.  Everyone pretty much agrees with that.  I can give you guesses ranging from 250,000 to 500,000 for France.  I think it would be easy enough to give 2 million as a good guess for Europe.  But having studied it a bit, I admit it is hard to be sure.

Your notion of what is quite small and can be ignored is just that.  Your opinion.  Even 1.25 million does not to me seem to be "quite small".

But I am impressed by how fast things heat up on this issue.  Its a hot button issue if ever there was one.
These statistics that Nolte has found from The Royal Statistical Office, do throw some light on the subject
Quote:
Nolte https://www.statslife.org.uk/soci...there-in-other-people-s-countries

Whether those figures are accurate is another thing.
Accordingly in 2013 there are 381 thousand in Spain-172 thousand in France
with 3.25 Million spread arond the commonweath countries.
So 1.25 million in the EU seems a reasonable estimate
A hell of a lot have left Spain and lost great amounts of money by doing so.

Here to help FF and others understand why we older citizens oppose the United States of Europe, is that legally we never joined.
Quote:
But, almost inevitably, the question asked in the referendum was also illegal since voters were asked: `Do you think that the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?'

The problem was that since Heath had ignored the constitution duties and requirements of Parliament and had signed the entrance documents illegally the words `stay in' were deceptive. We couldn't stay in the EEC because, constitutionally, we had never entered. We couldn't enter the Common Market because Parliament did not have the right to sign away our sovereignty.

The referendum Wilson organised to remedy Heath's constitutional breach misled the electorate on a simple constitutional issue and was, therefore, itself illegal. (Wilson's referendum was passed after a good deal of very one-sided propaganda was used to influence public opinion. If the nation had voted against our `continued' membership of the EEC the political embarrassment for all politicians would have been unbearable.)

Attempts through the courts to annul our membership of the European Union on the basis that Parliament acted improperly have failed because Parliament, through its legal sovereignty, is the source of the law in Britain and the courts are, therefore, unable to challenge any Parliamentary Act.

Only Parliament can reclaim the legislative powers that Heath and subsequent Prime Ministers have handed to the European Union.

And so, only when Parliament is filled with honest politicians who are not controlled by the private party system will the mistake be rectified and our membership annulled.

Britain's entry into the Common Market (later to be transformed into the EU) was also illegal for another reason. The Prime Minister who signed the entry documents, Edward Heath, later confirmed that he had lied to the British people about the implications of the Treaty.

Will Cameron tell you this to come clean, NO and although Maggie Thatcher stood up to the EU and got us reduced from these severe payments. I don't remember her coming clean about the EU.
We then had another greedy Tony Blair Prime minister who gave them back.

Where have you been FF as a senior citizen to still have to ask what it is all about and why as you say "It is such a Hot subject"
Fontfroide

This article helped me remember a few things about fishing policy.  But then I hardly knew anything anyway.

I think this guy is pretty good, although I know nothing much about him.  Actually I have never even heard of him, but a friend thinks he is wonderful.  Obviously he is pro EU, whereas I am pro-another Europe and france and Britain entirely.

http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/fishing/
http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/our-own-laws-our-own-parliament/
http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/category/mythbusters/
Fontfroide

Nolte wrote:
This article cites the world bank as saying between 4.5 million and 5.5 million British people are resident abroad
https://www.statslife.org.uk/soci...there-in-other-people-s-countries

Whether those figures are accurate is another thing.


I know what you mean.  When I first moved to France, I tried to find out "how many" Brits there were in France, and discovered how hard it is to get accurate data.  Still, one gets the idea that many Brits live abroad, and usually a higher percentage than most countries.  Anyway, the results of my early "research were somewhere between 200,000 and 500,000.

One thing is sure is that more people live abroad than the governments know about.
Fontfroide

This is a great argument for leaving Europe!  

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2...-economics-adviser_n_9368110.html
mr shifter

Re: In, out, shake it all about?

pantanifan wrote:
So Mr. Cameron has finished his negotiations with EU leaders and the UK has its long awaited (by some) referendum on EU membership. Which way will you vote?

My postal vote went off 10 days ago with the get out for christ's sake vote.
All these TV debates concentrate on immigration and the economy which cover up the other real problems with Europe.
Europe is in a shyte state which will come to a head in 4 months and this British election is being helpful to Frankfort.
Cameron the UK prime minister went around Europe with his bit of paper and everything he suggested got Vetoed by Germany. (the UK has no veto since Blair gave so much away)
Memories of another UK weak prime minister (Mr Chaimbertin) stepping of a plane from Germany with his bit of paper that had no value.(you must know that story)

This Election is not about Boris or other personalities but it should be about what is better for the UK and being the last country (?) again with a Democracy in Europe.
We have no need to still pay for the EU gravy train that is shown by the former Labour Leader we could never vote into government and his wife who both still drink the EU gravy in retirement.

Consider the vast amounts of money being wasted on the constant movements between Brussels and Strassburg and the staff of 28 countries with all the accomodation they have in both towns.

There is nothing to fear with leaving the United States of Europe as we have been there before and this last weekend the Queen's 90th birthday celebrations did prove that point.
This Tiny little Island still has something to offer the world even though our Sun now sets every day.

Be Lucky and God Bless.
mazda

So, we have taken the "out, shake it all about" option.

Speculation is that the postal votes swung it, but were they really 65% in favour of Leave (to create the 1.2m margin).

Will make it more expensive to visit Europe in the short term, but I can wait until the Pound recovers.  Wink
With UK out of Europe then the Euro will devalue slightly as well at some point over next 2 or 3 years.
Biosphere

Quite a surprise then. Amazing that minor skirmishes between UKIP and the Conservatives can grow to something that destabilises all of Europe.

Did anyone on here change their mind in the last couple of months?
SlowRower

Biosphere wrote:
Amazing that minor skirmishes between UKIP and the Conservatives can grow to something that destabilises all of Europe.


I think the EU big cheeses spectacularly mis-read things. They could have given Cameron some decent concessions in his "negotiations" and maybe headed off the floating voters. But instead, the refused to believe the EU could possibly have any faults, told Cameron to f*** off and are now probably sobbing in their (expenses paid) fine wine at the injustice of it all. Whilst the UK may go down in flames, there appears to be a decent chance that the EU will come down with us as a result.

The situation can still be rescued, but our (former) EU colleagues are going to have to act sensibly and reasonably to achieve this, which given their conduct over the Euro crisis does not seem that likely.

Hey ho.

My only surprise today is that Kinnock (any of them) hasn't been on telly telling the leavers that they voted the wrong way.
pantanifan

Seems like a high turnout as well. I think most people would probably have voted based on a gut feeling, as otherwise it's a very complex decision with many (unknown) factors to weigh up...
SlowRower

72% turnout. High vs recent general elections, but pretty low really as no-one can claim that their vote doesn't count.
Boogerd_Fan

Fontfroide wrote:
Seems to me everyone or nearly everyone in the UK has made up their mind already and the various trivial negotiations will change the mind of no one.  Sadly I have no idea which way it will go,  Brits are such oddballs.  Hardly any French people even get the idea of why the UK is outside or inside the Schengen area, and also outside or inside the Euro area, but worse, outside or inside the EC.  They think Brits are strange.

I myself am mystified by a whole country, or much of it, which thinks that being part of a joke British democracy is any better worse than a joke European one.  They are both run by the same people, the rich and the "bien pensant" .  On the other hand, at least the fake Democrats in the UK speak English.

I am for staying in, otherwise (as a British European) I imagine I will have loads of little niggling hassles with my pension, my health care, and overall with living in France peacefully.  Although I am sure I won't have to sell up and move back to the UK.  It won't be that bad, just loads of niggling bullshit.  I can even survive a moderate dip in the pound, which is bound to be a possible result.  I have had my income drop drastically three times in my life already.  

Many Brits seem to think that if they are not in the EU, then they will have "sovereign control" over their national economy.  Of course, the same people will control it then as do now.  More austerity to "stay competitive".  

Should be a little bit interesting though as it appears that the Labour bosses, the Tory bosses, the business bosses are all in favour of Europe.  So who exactly is against?

PS  Sorry, "bien pensant" is  "Someone who accepts and/or espouses a fashionable idea after it has been established and maintains it without a great amount of critical thought."  "Opinion leaders", in France people who are from the same schools, and schools of thought, the Republican worshippers, whether they vote left or right.


+1

My Slovak citizenship can't come fast enough, to prevent any of those niggling hassles with my pension, health care and living conditions that i have become accustomed to, as an EU citizen free to choose where to live. I don't mind the additional paperwork, but will prefer to avoid it.

On a positive side, the pound nose-diving means future trips to England will be a relatively lighter pinch on the wallet.

Looks like Boris gets what he wanted too, which is a stab at running the show. How long that pans out, is probably going to be the fun satire to follow for the coming months.
Fontfroide

Yeah it is going to be interesting to see what small or medium changes, much less large ones might happen to British people living in, France, for example.  No one knows.  I will get out the old file for being French, I should have no problem, apparently after 65 they don't even have a language test.  And I am married to a French woman, property owner and white.  Not sure I want to BE French, in the sense that I am British or American, but hey, they mess around, I gotta mess around.  I have had drops in income before, so that should be fine.  While I don't know for what exactly, I am sure I will have some forms to fill out to get some stamp or paper in the next year or three.  Otherwise, life goes on at the bottom.

I can easily see how people would vote out and how they would vote in.  I can also see what a bad choice either or them are.  I think poll data suggests if Italians or French were asked, maybe even Dutch, they would be quite happy to quit.  Shame really, as it was one of the most interesting political experiments on earth.  Most of the other organisations are kind of boring.  "Europe" was always a bit full of surprises and basically quite wildly optimistic.   I like that.
Boogerd_Fan

Interesting impact to your pension FF.. is that because you claim pension from the UK gov rather than the French gov?

My contract and employer are Slovak and i am paying Slovak (EU) taxes for 13 years now. I have recently applied successfully for a cushier pension scheme usually open to permenantly contracted workers in Slovakia (i.e. locals + those staying indefinitely).
I am in full assumption that when i will be of the age (and if pension still exists) that the SK gov will be the one paying it, as it is where i have contributed taxes.

On the flipside, having worked only 2-3 years in the UK prior to moving to the continent, the inland revenue are very quick to point out how little contribution i have given to the UK taxes... in fact spamming me with an annual letter asking to declare that its really true that nothing was contributed Very Happy I fully assume that if i were forced to claim a UK pension, i would get a very shitty deal. Even moreso now, as my payslips and proof of working and paying taxes in SK is subject to EU law what will be of little legal impact to inland revenue decision for me.

Checking the paperwork/logic behind EU citizens and freedom of movement, pension schemes etc are all fully transferable between countries. Planning to stay in Slovakia, so I will certainly be doing what I can to get what i am entitled to from my local tax paying. The 2-3 years working in UK i can live without. If remaining British will mean i am considered non-EU and not entitled to the largest pension i can claim, then i have no problem to renounce Britishness.

----

If the Dutch, French or Italians were to get similar result in their election I think it would definitely spell the end to the EU. Right now, with UK out, I can see it continuing... the big money that UK pumps into the EU as a member-state, will still be extracted (at least some of it) in new trading policy with Europe/EU members. It would only be under threat if other member states started to also vote out.

Of course that does not mean much, because even without the EU - we are all still European.

----

I had a good discussion with some Slovak citizens on this issue, and they advised it wouldn't matter if UK was inside or outside the EU, for them its a "cooler" more sophisticated country to live and work in, and many would continue to jump at the chance to go there as migrants. If the Leavers think that Immigration will be solved just by regaining control, they had better think again.
Nolte

Boogerd_Fan wrote:

My Slovak citizenship can't come fast enough


my uncle posted about applying for dual citizenship for his daughter (they're in england)

not to tout my own opinion but i posted this previously on the scottish independence vote

Nolte wrote:
what is funny is that scottish people are more pro europe than the rest of the uk but if they left the uk, they would also be leaving the eu while the less supportive of the eu, remainder of the uk would remain in the eu.
Biosphere

SlowRower wrote:
. . . . But instead, the refused to believe the EU could possibly have any faults, told Cameron to f*** off and are now probably sobbing in their (expenses paid) fine wine at the injustice of it all . . . . .


Careful SR. All this complaining about out of touch elites might lead to ludicrous claims of class warfare Wink

I think Europe's problems are manifold and was heading towards a restructuring whatever the Brexit vote. Now it's getting there quicker.  Populism is on the rise on the left and right and the EU is not sufficiently robust to resist. IMO.

I also think trying to appease the leave wing of the Tory party is sort of like trying to negotiate with terrorists - more interested in blowing things up than trying to reach a settlement. I'm not sure concession from the EU other than today would have satisfied them. IMO.

Whilst acknowledging that the margin of victory was small and it wouldn't have taken so many floating voters, I'm not sure in the end there were actually so many of them to float. Vote seems to have broken down along very specific lines of age, income, educational background, region of residence . . . to the extent that the vote almost became tribal. IMO.
mazda

Biosphere wrote:

Whilst acknowledging that the margin of victory was small and it wouldn't have taken so many floating voters, I'm not sure in the end there were actually so many of them to float. Vote seems to have broken down along very specific lines of age, income, educational background, region of residence . . . to the extent that the vote almost became tribal. IMO.


Only to the extent that in almost each demographic the total count was only as extreme as 60:40
So it is the way the results were presented that exaggerated the schism.

Unfortunately the main two parties still don't get that the vote wasn't about party this and party that.
The Tories seem to be happier when they can share their internal differences whereas The Labour Party seem to refuse to acknowledge that Labour voters have more than one reason for voting for Labour, and that jabbering on about not getting the message out to their voters is a nonsense.
Biosphere

mazda wrote:
Only to the extent that in almost each demographic the total count was only as extreme as 60:40
So it is the way the results were presented that exaggerated the schism . . .


I take your point re the 60:40 split but some were above 70:30 also. I'm not an expert so what follows is just a few of my observations. I think they are statistically significant but I may well be wrong. I'm not even really disagreeing with you just answering with what I saw as you engaged on the point.

The polls were more or less tied in the end when a regression was performed to all the available polls. More or less a 50:50 and it broke with a slight overall majority for leave. So even then a 60:40 split on sub categories tells something

From Huffington:


But within in that fairly balanced overall picture there were some  significant deviations that pushed well beyond a 60:40 split and that is where my tribalism comment came from.

Ashcroft Polls ran was basically an exit poll on the day where voters were asked on how the voted and their opinions on other factors. On the first set I presume Scots / Welsh / Irish are disentangled as it's not an appropriate question for them. I would like to see what % of people went with mixed blessings on the second set (are a majority being excluded for a dramatic impact?) as I find some of the force for ill answers mind boggling. Some social attitudes I expect (so less mind boggling) but disagree with, but the Internet as a force for ill? The Green movement?





I also got a laugh of out Ashcroft on his polling website suggesting a visit to his main website where I could read about his philanthropy and gallantry. I didn't think people would still describe themselves in such a way, but I guess he is a Lord of the Realm.
Fontfroide

Boogerd_Fan wrote:
Interesting impact to your pension FF.. is that because you claim pension from the UK gov rather than the French gov?



Yep, my forty years of contributions to state and other pensions means everything comes to be in euros, after the money changers take their cut.  I expect that for some time the uncertainty and shilly shallying will mean the pound drops and so I get less.  But who knows, maybe the euro will fall apart and the pound be worth lots.

My heart and my money are British.  But I like living in France, except that my French is not nearly as good as my English.  But actually "being French" is still a little strange.  If "they" force me I will become French.  I will leave "they" ambiguous.
Fontfroide

Nice post Bio.  While most of it makes sense, I am surprised (and happy) that among the many complex concerns people have, half of both leave and remain though capitalism sucked.  For me that is a big change over the last 15-20 years.  The other stuff was more predictable but good to see in a graphic display.
Nolte

i agree with ff, interesting reading bio
mazda

Thanks Bio.
As you say, the numbers in each category for the good/evil ratings would be more useful than percentages.

edit - they didn't get as far as asking whether Opinion polls were a force for good or evil. That would have been fairly ironic. Democracy and democratic referundum being examples of the ultimate "opinion poll".

Seems to support the idea that people weren't really voting against the EU per se, if at all, but more a larger sum of things.

We are experiencing power cuts here at the mo.
Has Europe already started to cut us adrift ?
kathy

I am devastated!  The UK has committed economic suicide, and will now split up with Scotland becoming independant and staying in the EU.
gerry12ie

Biosphere wrote:
SlowRower wrote:
. . . . But instead, the refused to believe the EU could possibly have any faults, told Cameron to f*** off and are now probably sobbing in their (expenses paid) fine wine at the injustice of it all . . . . .


Careful SR. All this complaining about out of touch elites might lead to ludicrous claims of class warfare Wink

I think Europe's problems are manifold and was heading towards a restructuring whatever the Brexit vote. Now it's getting there quicker.  Populism is on the rise on the left and right and the EU is not sufficiently robust to resist. IMO.

I also think trying to appease the leave wing of the Tory party is sort of like trying to negotiate with terrorists - more interested in blowing things up than trying to reach a settlement. I'm not sure concession from the EU other than today would have satisfied them. IMO.

Whilst acknowledging that the margin of victory was small and it wouldn't have taken so many floating voters, I'm not sure in the end there were actually so many of them to float. Vote seems to have broken down along very specific lines of age, income, educational background, region of residence . . . to the extent that the vote almost became tribal. IMO.


An excellent summation Bio. On the money.

Friday morning was a rare occasion when I was genuinely shocked, but not the slightest bit surprised.  The UK's relationship with Europe has never been harmonious, and very often fractious, so maybe it was always going to come to this - but look at the cost already.  The Tories finally played their nuclear joker and few have yet ducked from cover - leadership, what leadership?  Labour are in the middle of eating themselves alive.  The markets are in turmoil (although that was to be expected - it's what markets do best).  Maybe most importantly, the state of the Union is decidedly unhealthy.

As a passionate European hybrid (Irish/English - but I much prefer to make the distinction of being a Dubliner from London) I will readily admit that there is a lot wrong with what the EU has become.  It's faceless neo-liberalism is remote and out of touch with much of it's members.  This should be the wake up call it badly needs to begin the reforms that are clearly necessary.  Most importantly, the EU gets on with it without the UK dragging its heels.  The UK can't be in and out at the same time.  It is shameless of Boris and Farage to state that somehow the exit will happen at a time that suits them.  No offence to anyone here, but there is much to be done, so the UK needs to GTF out and let Europe get on with it.

For me, the most saddening outcome is the young voters in major cities - London, Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, and to a slightly lesser extent in Birmingham and Leeds who voted remain but have been sent to bed early by their parents and grandparents with strict instructions not to play with those dreadful foreigners.  The image on Friday of a triumphant Farage and his supporters waving their grotty little plastic poundland flags will, sadly, stick for a long time.

So by the end of the year can we look forward to Boris in Number 10, Trump in the Whitehouse, and UKIP as England and Wales' second party following an election?

Jeux sans Frontieres indeed Shocked
mr shifter

A couple of points about "Leave".

So, so many Scots and Ulster voters want to stay over there, fair enough.
Scotland 24% is banded around OK.

Now don't tell me about 52%-48% being very close in your argument when the English and Welsh must have a larger margin if the Scots/Ulster figures are taken out.
So can I speculate that the England/Wales majority is nearer 55%-45% and much more decisive from our point of view and we know our history.

Another point about that vote is the 60 year olds etc have for the first time been given a straight forward choice about Europe and for 43 years have had to live with "Being Conned" by the greedy Politicians and their Lies.
43 years ago it was the EEC (European Economic Community) and good for Trade that the French President (De Gaule) said NON he did not want us and put the veto on us. When he was gone, it cost us a lot of money and penalties to join and then they changed the rules to it being a single State.
Who voted for that, ? - Oh yes they are standing on the steps.
Now isn't that what Napoleon wanted for the French to run things. ?
Maggie Thatcher was the only Prime Minister to stand up to them and got a reduction in those crippling payments until Blair chickened out and gave in to them.

We have had crippling Debts before and paid off the Huge USA Debt for the Materials they gave us in WW2 and for 900 hundred years we have not needed Europe for anything but "Trading".
We have proved we can defend ourselves, so many times.

Be Lucky...... Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy  Arrow
mr shifter

gerry12ie wrote:

1) No offence to anyone here, but there is much to be done, so the UK needs to GTF out and let Europe get on with it.
2)So by the end of the year can we look forward to Boris in Number 10, Trump in the Whitehouse, and UKIP as England and Wales' second party following an election?

3)Jeux sans Frontieres indeed

1) That's exactly what we voted for. Yes Please

2)What can UKIP do now, they served their purpose and Boris is in a "Democracy" so who knows.

3) Do you think the French will fill in their Tunnel because Eurostar will be very busy as they allow the Calais Camp to travel and are rejected to return.
This will cost the French Eurostar millions as they will be responsible and their passengers have nowhere to go with the trains geting grid locked in the Tunnel.......indeed.
Eurostar can take them to Brussels. ??  Rolling Eyes
mazda

gerry12ie wrote:
For me, the most saddening outcome is the young voters in major cities - London, Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, and to a slightly lesser extent in Birmingham and Leeds who voted remain but have been sent to bed early by their parents and grandparents with strict instructions not to play with those dreadful foreigners.  The image on Friday of a triumphant Farage and his supporters waving their grotty little plastic poundland flags will, sadly, stick for a long time.


I agree that there is a strong air of sadness, especially among and for the youngsters.
But I have been trying to point out that in every group of 10 youngsters there will be 2 who voted leave, 5 remain and 3 who didn't vote.
They have their whole lives to recover and learn from this.
One thing they will learn is that you don't always get your own way in life.

I'd like to suggest an alternative interpretation and see where it leads ...

Given the result, could one not argue that is the massive metropolitan city centres (London, Manchester, Liverpool, Edinburgh) that are the places that are "out of touch" in this country ?
Note that those places are overwhelmingly where our media and political centres are based.

I'm not convinced we can make the best of this "mess" while we still face a daily barrage telling us we have done the wrong thing. That can only deepen the divide in our country.
That is what saddens me.
Biosphere

kathy wrote:
. . . . The UK has committed economic suicide, . . . .


I would not be surprised if a way was found so that it ends up in the failed attempt / cry for help category

mr shifter wrote:
. . . 1) That's exactly what we voted for. Yes Please . . .


Is it? Today Boris is offering you to stay in the single market, migration still in the 6 digits, but less EU regulations. From the horse's mouth:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2...itain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
gerry12ie

Well that escalated quickly Wink
Nolte

And Iain Duncan smith backtracks on the 350m NHS claim

http://www.theguardian.com/politi...-vote-leave-iain-duncan-smith-nhs

In fairness, he just rode around in a bus with that written on it so it is like Dublin bus passengers don't endorse the films on the buses they are passengers on Wink

Listening to the BBC coverage on Thursday night at 10pm, Duncan smith was asked about him referring to George Osborne during the campaign as "pinnochio Osbourne" and denied he did that. Don't lie when being asked by someone if you called someone else a liar, especially when you spent the last month in the company of cameras and reporters.

Listening to the leave campaign during the campaign, it seemed to me they wanted all the advantages of EU membership but none of the disadvantages. It's like breaking up with your spouse and still wanting the same sexual relations  with them.

Or in my case, the same rights to their books as before
Biosphere

mazda wrote:
I agree that there is a strong air of sadness, especially among and for the youngsters.
But I have been trying to point out that in every group of 10 youngsters there will be 2 who voted leave, 5 remain and 3 who didn't vote.
They have their whole lives to recover and learn from this.
One thing they will learn is that you don't always get your own way in life.

I'd like to suggest an alternative interpretation and see where it leads ...

Given the result, could one not argue that is the massive metropolitan city centres (London, Manchester, Liverpool, Edinburgh) that are the places that are "out of touch" in this country ?
Note that those places are overwhelmingly where our media and political centres are based.

I'm not convinced we can make the best of this "mess" while we still face a daily barrage telling us we have done the wrong thing. That can only deepen the divide in our country.
That is what saddens me.


I think the young people voters had a lot lower turnout than the 70% your numbers suggest. I think I read the turnout at the 18-24 end of the spectrum was 4 times lower than the pensioner turnout. Basically if Corbyn was energising the youth in the way that is claimed, they would have carried the day. The win was there if they could be bothered. That is another lesson that they probably will not learn.

Your alternative way of looking at it is along the lines of of what Mr. S is saying as well, in that there is a clear English / Welsh majority for Brexit. I worry though that it's not about being out of touch with one another, and instead it's about quite different views on things that may not be reconciled so readily. Watching C4 news tonight and the studio debate between the 2 sides was so angry Sad

Which leads to the worry of your third point. All I can offer is that with all these foreigners on forums telling you it's a big mistake, it may lead to a uniting siege mentality. Wink

More generally, I feel bad that the only piece of Marina Hyde that is referenced on this forum (AFAIK), is her dreadful piece on Shane Sutton, so to rectify that,  this observation on Corbyn made me laugh a lot.

Quote:
I salute Corbyn for being that rare thing: a soft-spoken egomaniac who doesn’t have sex with his own followers. But I concede that there will be those who think he can’t even lead a cult properly in this regard.

https://www.theguardian.com/comme...et-leave-lies-referendum-promises

PS: In the world of the 7 Day NHS, will it be acceptable for junior doctors to go play cricket on a Sunday during the outbreak of a deadly plague of biblical / apocalyptic proportions or is that just a privilege for the hard working gentry Smile
Nolte

this would agree with the 18-24 a lot lower than older people



source: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/06/brexit-vote-one-chart
Biosphere

Thanks Nolte. Not as extreme as the 4:1 I thought I read.
mazda

Thanks Nolte.
Way more extreme than I imagined.  Sad

Either they weren't motivated to vote (but were registered to vote), or their mums refused to drive them the 200 yards to the polling stations.
mazda

Biosphere wrote:

Which leads to the worry of your third point. All I can offer is that with all these foreigners on forums telling you it's a big mistake, it may lead to a uniting siege mentality. Wink


I am more than happy for you to tell me it is mistake, and despite the fact you might think you know how I think, I almost certainly agree with you.

Who knows where this will end, politically, financially.
The status quo has temporarily been altered.
The money men do not like it and of course they are going to make things unpleasant, while trying to make a fast buck on the side at the same time.
I have no idea what the two main UK parties will do.
I'd be happy for them both to break apart and usher in a new system where voters vote for people they respect, not the party they hate the least.

Assuming the UK does leave, and that isn't certain you know, I do not know how the 27 other countries can do what is best for themselves. Might be catch-22. If they do what is best financially, then that might be the worst thing politically.
I know that different countries are saying different things.
gerry12ie

Mazda, the stat Nolte posted surprised me I must say.  I didn't pay avid attention to the campaigns other than my usual UK media outlets - BBC, Guardian (biased) and Telegraph (even more biased), and besides we have our own shit going on here that demanded my attention (Giro, Euro 2016, hurling etc...Wink.  Was there any kind of real attempt made on the Remain side to reach the U25s?  The turnout was very low (probably in line with most elections/referenda for that age group though) and Corbyn, in particular, is being savaged for not pressing a message.  I wonder is this all after the event, or was the campaign really as benign as is suggested?

With the young vote revealed as being this low, I might guess the urban adult Remain vote is even higher than I first imagined.  

When London pushes for separation I might even move back to my now achingly-trendy Walthamstow Very Happy
mazda

gerry12ie wrote:
 Was there any kind of real attempt made on the Remain side to reach the U25s?  The turnout was very low (probably in line with most elections/referenda for that age group though) and Corbyn, in particular, is being savaged for not pressing a message.  I wonder is this all after the event, or was the campaign really as benign as is suggested?

Like you I only watch mainstream media channels, I have no idea how Remain tried to connect through alternatives.
Perhaps a bigger celeb endorsed campaign would have done the trick ?

I think the attack on Corbyn is just opportunism. Most voters were not
interested in what the party leaders had to say. So to blame him is a bit feeble.
Was he even that avidly pro-EU, it isn't clear to me. He doesn't seem to be the type of person to force his ideas on you. My step-daughter loves him. And she voted Remain. Perhaps I assumed everyone would be like her and be part of a super-connected whole that were motivated and itching to vote.
gerry12ie

mazda wrote:
Biosphere wrote:

Which leads to the worry of your third point. All I can offer is that with all these foreigners on forums telling you it's a big mistake, it may lead to a uniting siege mentality. Wink


I am more than happy for you to tell me it is mistake, and despite the fact you might think you know how I think, I almost certainly agree with you.

Who knows where this will end, politically, financially.
The status quo has temporarily been altered.
The money men do not like it and of course they are going to make things unpleasant, while trying to make a fast buck on the side at the same time.
I have no idea what the two main UK parties will do.
I'd be happy for them both to break apart and usher in a new system where voters vote for people they respect, not the party they hate the least.


Assuming the UK does leave, and that isn't certain you know, I do not know how the 27 other countries can do what is best for themselves. Might be catch-22. If they do what is best financially, then that might be the worst thing politically.
I know that different countries are saying different things.


Maybe you have read this? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2...e-fit-for-purpose-in-a-post-brex/
Boogerd_Fan

Just in case anyone in Brussels wasn't yet offended by the Brexit Brits... he had to go and do this:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-0...esses-european-parliament/7551854
Biosphere

mazda wrote:
Biosphere wrote:

Which leads to the worry of your third point. All I can offer is that with all these foreigners on forums telling you it's a big mistake, it may lead to a uniting siege mentality. Wink


I am more than happy for you to tell me it is mistake, and despite the fact you might think you know how I think, I almost certainly agree with you. . . .


I'm not sure I follow 100% but I meant the plural you (as all the voters). I hadn't actually assumed which way you voted. Others have been a lot more clear cut Smile

I'm actually ambivalent about the EU and on paper could have at least come up with reasons for voting no were I entitled to, but in practice I think whatever will replace it will be worse given the current political trends so would have been of a stay and reform mind.

I think Corbyn has to go because he is a poor leader. I was happy enough when he was elected as I thought anti austerity ideas at least needed to play out in a political debate, but he has come across as very ineffective and still stuck in the politics of his student union days. He wouldn't actually confirm that he had voted remain when asked by one of his shadow cabinet, which coupled with what is reported as his office sabotaging the Labour Party's remain campaign has led to an angry revolt from the PLP rather than an opportunistic one. IMO.
SlowRower

Biosphere wrote:
SlowRower wrote:
. . . . But instead, the refused to believe the EU could possibly have any faults, told Cameron to f*** off and are now probably sobbing in their (expenses paid) fine wine at the injustice of it all . . . . .


Careful SR. All this complaining about out of touch elites might lead to ludicrous claims of class warfare Wink


It's OK. I was complaining about the out of touch EU Big Cheeses, so no reference to "elite" here!
SlowRower

Marina Hyde rightly got a bit of a pasting here for her cycling related comments, but she's still on form re politics: https://www.theguardian.com/comme...chael-gove-traitor-prime-minister
Fontfroide

This whole business is a perfect example of how inconsistent the argument is that EU leaders are not elected by the people, therefore it is not democratic and responsible.  The new Tory leader, elected like the EU leaders by elected representatives, NOT by the people directly, will soon be the leader of the government of all of the UK.  Never did see that as democratic either really.  And she might also be unelected by the party hacks NOT by the people.  IN fact, in Britain you never actually get to vote for either the head of state OR the head of government.

And yet everyone says it is "democratic".
SlowRower

Fontfroide wrote:
This whole business is a perfect example of how inconsistent the argument is that EU leaders are not elected by the people, therefore it is not democratic and responsible.  The new Tory leader, elected like the EU leaders by elected representatives, NOT by the people directly, will soon be the leader of the government of all of the UK.  Never did see that as democratic either really.  And she might also be unelected by the party hacks NOT by the people.  IN fact, in Britain you never actually get to vote for either the head of state OR the head of government.

And yet everyone says it is "democratic".


Valid points, though technically in the UK we don't vote for a particular PM, just a party. Crucially though, we (the UK) collectively can give the current lot the boot in under 4 years if we want to. That's not something we can do to any of the Commissioners or the odious Juncker.

EU democracy is different to UK democracy; whether one thinks the EU is undemocratic probably hinges more on whether one likes the whole EU concept rather than the actual merits of who MEPs, Commissioners, Presidents etc. are elected.
mr shifter

`
I don't remember getting a chance to vote for  Neil Kinnock as an EU commissioner
The country never wanted him as a future PM but the Welsh Miners made him their MP and then an MEP.
He got the EU commissioner's job so his wife also stood as an MEP and got it. (lots of gravy train money in that home.  

The Conservative Party Members will have a vote to decide who there leader will be now the parliament MP's have decided  the 2 candidates.

Gawd help the country if that' choice is all we can look forward to,
Fontfroide

Just a tiny point.  No one (except MPs) gets to decide who is the next head of government of the UK.  although Tory party members who vote has some input.  But normal people cannot choose at all.

The opportunity to get rid of, within limits, the head of government is dubious privilege when both parties share so many assumptions but what is the way forward.

Another tiny point, we don't vote for a party even, we vote for an individual MP.  that choice is foisted upon us by a local party.

But it is true, the definition of what precisely is the system of voting and organisation of the government into a democracy does vary a bit from place to place.  And that issue is probably not a really important one.

I still think the rulers of the universe will make all this just go away and be buried.  In the end it will just be one or two minor inconveniences for Anglo immigrants (like big slashes in income for retirees) and some forms to fill out and money to pay for new documents.
mr shifter

You are confusing the situation this time.
In the first place at Local level they select their choice for their own candidates and if they are elected by the general public, they then as MP's have the first go at selecting their leader.

This month they have a gutless leader who wants to run away and leave the barn door open for someone else to sort out the mess he has left.

Now the backroom Tory's that we we seldom hear about have decreed they don't need a members election of 2 candidates because the process will take too long. (This mysterious 1922 committee who were behind the Maggie Thatcher downfall and the reason Boris dropped out, is something we have no democracy about)
You see Maggie as Leader had to obey the the dictates of the 1922 committee and then they saw her getting so strong as the "Iron Lady" they worked behind the scenes to bring her down.

The labour party is in a similar position with differences of opinion between their MP's and the paid up membership.

I think it will be that our new PM will have a go at implementing "Option 50" to get out, but as she struggles then she can say "well I did my best" and not worry too much about the outcome because it is not her mandate.

The decent thing is to employ an outsider (like Farage) to do the negotiating and that will leave her with a clean sheet if he fails.
Biosphere

So is it still class warfare if it's the maiden speech of the new Conservative PM?

Quote:
That means fighting against the burning injustice that if you’re born poor you will die on average nine years earlier than others.

If you’re black you are treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you’re white.

If you’re a white working-class boy you’re less likely than anybody else in Britain to go to university.

If you’re at a state school you’re less likely to reach the top professions than if you’re educated privately.

If you’re a woman you will earn less than a man.

If you suffer from mental health problems, there’s not enough help to hand.

If you’re young you will find it harder than ever before to own your own home. If you’re from an ordinary working-class family, life is much harder than many people in Westminster realise.
The government I lead will be driven, not by the interests of the privileged few but by yours. We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives.

When we take the big calls we will think not of the powerful, but you. When we pass new laws we will listen not to the mighty, but to you.

When it comes to taxes we will prioritise not the wealthy, but you. When it comes to opportunity we won’t entrench the advantages of the fortunate few, we will do everything we can to help anybody, whatever your background, to go as far as your talents will take you.


Not surprising that Osborne's head was the first to roll tonight, but can't help wondering if May's reign will have a duration that falls somewhere between a Fruit Fly's and John Paul I Wink
SlowRower

Boris as Foreign Secretary? Henry Kissinger's Nobel Peace Prize suddenly seems less ironic. We're all doomed. Smile
Fontfroide

Unless it all gets buried in talks, motions, committees, memos, small agreements no one can keep up with, court cases … until five years from now, we might have a few more bits of paper, but nothing much will change.

Those who think anyone can stop the flow of immigrants from war torn or poor areas to safe and rich areas will realise their error.  Those who think that more justice and fairness will be delivered by domestic political hacks than by Euro hacks, will see that they are all in the same game.  

Although secretly, I hope that the UK (minus Scotland by then) will be an example of how to be independent and "good" in a globalised world.

Many of the Anglo-immigrants I know are trying to get a permanent residents card, which of course they can get within a short time.  They think it will give them security, but sooner or later they might have become French, a project which some of them seem to be discussing.  

There are many scared, angry, upset people amongst the immigrants, although they call themselves expats.  Just like in the UK I suppose.
gerry12ie

I don't know if it has been widely reported, but there has been a huge demand for Irish passports from the UK in both the run up to Brexit, and especially since the result.  Demand is highest in the North (anyone born on the island of Ireland is entitled to an Irish passport, regardless of religious or political persuasion), and its reported that traditional Unionist areas are registering the highest demand.

Strange days indeed...

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk...t-application-forms-34830144.html
mazda

Fontfroide wrote:
Those who think anyone can stop the flow of immigrants from war torn or poor areas to safe and rich areas will realise their error.  Those who think that more justice and fairness will be delivered by domestic political hacks than by Euro hacks, will see that they are all in the same game.  

Although secretly, I hope that the UK (minus Scotland by then) will be an example of how to be independent and "good" in a globalised world.

Many of the Anglo-immigrants I know are trying to get a permanent residents card, which of course they can get within a short time.  They think it will give them security, but sooner or later they might have become French, a project which some of them seem to be discussing.  

There are many scared, angry, upset people amongst the immigrants, although they call themselves expats.  Just like in the UK I suppose.

Some wise words.
The world is now a global place. Knowledge is more global. And what is known can be aspired to.
Human culture however lags far behind the new reality. Will it ever catch up ?

Justice and fairness are quite arbitrary and subjective concepts.
Numerically speaking it seems intuitive that the smaller a group of people then the easier it is to achieve a common sense of both (e.g. In our house if someone breaks a plate or spills milk on the carpet then the subsequent outcome is both fair and just).
Can any political system solve the issues inherent in human society ?
Perhaps human society cannot systematically exist in a state where we are both "free" and everything is fair and just, well that's what I believe.

Why would someone living permanently in France object to becoming French - or more accurately being labelled as French ?
It is only a small change to the rules, a nudge on how to play the game.
mr shifter

gerry12ie wrote:
I don't know if it has been widely reported, but there has been a huge demand for Irish passports from the UK in both the run up to Brexit, and especially since the result.  Demand is highest in the North (anyone born on the island of Ireland is entitled to an Irish passport, regardless of religious or political persuasion), and its reported that traditional Unionist areas are registering the highest demand.

Strange days indeed...

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk...t-application-forms-34830144.html
They won't hand in their British Passpoorts though.
So it must be something of  value.  Rolling Eyes
pantanifan

mazda wrote:

Justice and fairness are quite arbitrary and subjective concepts.
Numerically speaking it seems intuitive that the smaller a group of people then the easier it is to achieve a common sense of both (e.g. In our house if someone breaks a plate or spills milk on the carpet then the subsequent outcome is both fair and just).
Can any political system solve the issues inherent in human society ?
Perhaps human society cannot systematically exist in a state where we are both "free" and everything is fair and just, well that's what I believe.


Completely agree.

mazda wrote:

Why would someone living permanently in France object to becoming French - or more accurately being labelled as French?


I guess nationality and self-identity are more important to some people than others, just imagine being in Eastern Ukraine today or Northern Ireland and trying to impose a nationality on people that they don't want to accept...
SlowRower

I can't believe that the "Brexit" debate has degenerated so far that photos of empty Marmite shelves are making the headlines. Where will it end?
maffy

http://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-...an-in-the-gutter-uk-17464981.html obviously. are we nearly there yet?
Biosphere

£10 for a photo of an empty beer can! You can buy a real can full of beer for a lot less than that Wink
maffy

brewed under license in the uk.

tenner for the pic at the moment. but we have to import the internet it's printed on, and alamystockferter have a duty to their sharegolders, so after that tenner's converted back to tenge it'll be 50ukps for that picture of an empty beer can next week.
gerry12ie

Bleedin' Frogs coming over here chucking their empty cans... Wink
mr shifter

gerry12ie wrote:
Bleedin' Frogs coming over here chucking their empty cans... Wink

I remember in the days that I had a "Black" Britsh passport that buses in Paris had solid rubber tyres and the toilets were just a hole in the floor.
The can would have blocked the toilet and nobody would have known why the floor was wet because the smell would have been the same.  Rolling Eyes
pantanifan

Looks like we can revive this discussion again as Nicola Sturgeon announces another referendum on Scotland leaving the UK. Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the referendum-mad UK's decisions, those of us living in the EU ("continental Europe") might start checking out our Scottish heritage (mine is undisputed, though my accent still needs some work) to make residence permits, etc. easier as a Scottish EU citizen than a rump-UK non-EU citizen!
mazda

Nothing about #GE2017

So I'll reply to a comment from Bio in the Around the World forum.

Biosphere wrote:
I did enjoy the cognitive dissonance moment last night when the 1st  Newcastle result came in and smooth Kellner unable to get away from the polling and all the ways the raw numbers are tweaked was saying the Conservatives were still possibly on for majority of 100, whilst the mad scientist type Curtice with his on the day measurements and sticky up hair on one side was saying but it's still a swing to Labour Smile


I recall seeing that Smile

Those swings are very crude. Like in Scotland where Cons were taking votes off SNP and allowing Lab to win seats, they still present it as a swing from SNP to Lab.

I know the media try to present the result as a communal conscious narrative but in essence the swing from Con to Lab is a numerical mismatch caused by both parties mopping up UKIP voters (why would everyone assume 'Kippers would vote Tory ?), compared to Lab grabbing some Tory Remain protest voters along with, presumably, an increase in registration and turnout among the youngsters - Canterbury, Reading East

I mean things could not possibly have gone worse for the Tories (manifesto blunders, leader being found out, wrong seats targetted) and all they lost in the end was 13 seats.
As pleasant as he is I think JC is deluded if he really thinks he won the election.

Still, a hung parliament seems like a good result even if we have regressed to a divided, two party state that might persist for some time yet.
Roll on the next election !
gerry12ie

From the outset the election was a pretty naked power play - an opportunity to port back to 1983 and rule absolutely from the front.  Yes, there were manifesto blunders and May simply couldn't convince in the way Thatcher did back then, but in simplest terms the play was rejected - and quite convincingly.  The Tories went all in on a hand that just wasn't good enough and are very lucky to be still sitting at the table for the next deal.

I can't explain the SNP collapse, but nearer to home it is a little depressing to see the continued upward curve of SF and DUP in the North, to the point where they now completely dominate the political landscape having swept all the moderate vestiges aside.  Even the most hardline Tories might find the evangelical DUP uncomfortable bedfellows in time.  And as hardline as the DUP would like to be they are going to make a hard Brexit very difficult, as although they were passionately 'leave' they will want the softest Brexit possible to facilitate frictionless trade with Ireland.  They might end up being more help than the Tories need... Wink
gerry12ie

It didn't take too long for someone to twist Frankie Boyle's gag and describe the DUP manifesto as 'basically the Bible, but with fortnightly bin collections'... Very Happy
Slapshot 3

gerry12ie wrote:
From the outset the election was a pretty naked power play - an opportunity to port back to 1983 and rule absolutely from the front.  Yes, there were manifesto blunders and May simply couldn't convince in the way Thatcher did back then, but in simplest terms the play was rejected - and quite convincingly.  The Tories went all in on a hand that just wasn't good enough and are very lucky to be still sitting at the table for the next deal.

I can't explain the SNP collapse, but nearer to home it is a little depressing to see the continued upward curve of SF and DUP in the North, to the point where they now completely dominate the political landscape having swept all the moderate vestiges aside.  Even the most hardline Tories might find the evangelical DUP uncomfortable bedfellows in time.  And as hardline as the DUP would like to be they are going to make a hard Brexit very difficult, as although they were passionately 'leave' they will want the softest Brexit possible to facilitate frictionless trade with Ireland.  They might end up being more help than the Tories need... Wink


The SNP collapse is very simple, the Sturgeon woman back tracked on promises of a once in a generation referendum the day after Brexit, she's done nothing else but talk about it since to the entire detriment of Scotland, she's forgotten her job. People have remembered this and that has seen the massive swings away from them in some areas, my own constituency over 21% swing to the tories.

Douglas Alexander famously deposed in 2015 by the wee lassie Mhairi Black was very cutting in his reasoning basically said "in 2015 that people everywhere had been talking about Nicola Sturgeon, now they all talk about is "that bloody woman or the Nippie Sweetie"." he's totally correct.




Ruth Davidson has been quietly impressive over the same period saying and doing the right things, if she can gain some disassociation from the Tories in the south she could do some good things up here. Odd we have three women leading the three main parties up her..... and in Patrick Harvie and Willie Rennie two old sweetie wifes leading the greens and the libs!!
pantanifan

gerry12ie wrote:
From the outset the election was a pretty naked power play - an opportunity to port back to 1983 and rule absolutely from the front.  Yes, there were manifesto blunders and May simply couldn't convince in the way Thatcher did back then, but in simplest terms the play was rejected - and quite convincingly.  The Tories went all in on a hand that just wasn't good enough and are very lucky to be still sitting at the table for the next deal.


Looking from afar, it seems like it was the weakest choice of potential leaders in living memory. May was obviously robotic, without any policy plans (except for "dementia tax") , and didn't deserve to win, Corbyn has had a great election and reached out to new parts of the electorate, but the suspicion remains that if he were to make it into power the IMF would have to be on standby. Farron was anonymous and Nuttall was worse than anonymous. In short, the British people were right not to give overall power to anyone, but who knows what Brexit means now?
Re. DUP: it could be disastrous for the "peace process" in Northern Ireland, but I think the Tories are more likely to be defeated by their own MPs than by DUP...

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