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Mrs John Murphy

Contador vs Nibali

SlowRower wrote:


I think the differences in perception re Berto and Nibali may be due to the subtlety that Berto has shown dominant GT form (i.e. winning) pretty much from the start of his career, whereas Nibs has been good since his debut but only started dominating GTs 4 years later in his career than did Berto.



Contador age 31
Nibali age 29

Palmares by age season

Age 21

Contador - 1st Stage 8 (ITT) Tour de Pologne
Nibali - 5th Milan-Torino

Age 22

Contador - 1st Mountains classification Vuelta a Aragón
Nibali -     1st GP Ouest-France
   2nd Overall Settimana internazionale di Coppi e Bartali

       1st Stage 1

   3rd Overall Eneco Tour of Benelux
   4th GP Chiasso
   8th Overall Post Danmark Rundt

Age 23

Contador -     1st Stage 5 Tour Down Under
   1st  Overall Setmana Catalana de Ciclisme

       1st Combination classification
       1st Stage 3

   3rd Overall Tour of the Basque Country

       1st Points classification
       1st Stage 5b (ITT)

   4th Overall Tour de Romandie

       1st Stage 4

Nibali -     1st Young Rider Classification Giro del Trentino
   1st GP Industria e Artigianato di Lanciano
   1st Giro di Toscana
   1st Trofeo Città di Borgomanero
   2nd Overall Tour of Slovenia

       1st Stages 3 & 4
       1st Points classification

   6th Memorial Marco Pantani
   8th Overall Giro del Trentino

Age 24

Contador -     1st Stage 8 Tour de Suisse
   2nd Overall Tour de Romandie

       1st Stage 3

Nibali -     1st Overall Giro del Trentino

       1st Stage 3

   3rd Overall Settimana internazionale di Coppi e Bartali
   8th Overall Vuelta a la Comunidad Valenciana
   8th GP Industria & Commercio di Prato
   10th Liège–Bastogne–Liège

Age 25

Contador -     1st Stage 4 Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana
   1st Overall Vuelta a Castilla y León

       1st Combination classification
       1st Spanish rider classification
       1st Stage 4

   1st Overall Paris–Nice

       1st Young rider classification
       1st Stages 4 & 7

   1st Overall Tour de France

       1st  young rider classification
       1st Stage 14

Nibali     1st Giro dell'Appennino
   1st Gran Premio Città di Camaiore
   5th Gran Premio Miguel Indurain
   5th Klasika Primavera
   5th GP Industria & Artigianato di Larciano
   6th Overall Tour of California
   7th Overall Tour de France
   9th Overall Tour of the Basque Country
   10th Overall Tirreno-Adriatico

Age 26

Contador -     1st Overall Vuelta a Castilla y León

       1st Combination classification
       1st Spanish rider classification
       1st Stages 1 (ITT) & 4

   1st  Overall Tour of the Basque Country

       1st Stages 1 & 6 (ITT)

   1st Overall Giro d'Italia
   1st  Overall Vuelta a España

       1st  combination classification
       1st Stages 13 & 14

   4th Individual Time Trial Beijing Olympics

Nibali    1st Overall Vuelta a España

       1st Combination classification

   1st Overall Tour de San Luis

       1st Stage 4

   1st Overall Tour of Slovenia

       1st Stage 3

   1st Trofeo Melinda
   3rd Overall Giro d'Italia

       1st Stages 4 (TTT) & 14

   3rd Overall Vuelta a Burgos
   5th Giro di Lombardia
   5th Giro dell'Emilia
   8th Overall Tirreno-Adriatico

First GT

Contador  age 23 finished 31st
Nibali age 23 finished 19th

First GT win

Contador age 25 (2nd GT completed)
Nibali age 26 (6th GT completed - had placed 6th in TDF in age 25 season)
mazda

That ought to dispel a few perception errors around here Very Happy

I think it all comes down to his 2008 performance(s) and being hailed as the next big thing.
Then Nibali comes along 2 to 3 years later and nobody is looking anymore.

However public perception is a hard thing to shift, especially with facts.

Maybe this Vuelta will be Contador's last GC win (even allowing for Mr. Tinkov already having predicted the next two TdF results).
SlowRower

If you look at GTs from the age of 24 then we have the following finishing positions:

Berto: 1-1-1-1-1-1

Nibs: 6-3-1-2-7-3

Nibs also bagged an 11th and 20th aged 23, perhaps creating the perception that he wasn't the next dominant force, as dominant forces have historically started very young. Berto didn't race aged 23 and so appears to have come from nowhere to start winning GTs, which always helps in creating a Superman aura.

I'm not saying Nibs is sub standard; just clarifying why journos' perceptions might be that Berto winning in the natural order of things whereas Nibs winning might not be.

Performances in minor races such as the Giro and Vuelta probably don't feature widely in the journos' prognostications, which again works is Berto's favour. The even more minor races probably count for nothing amongst such an audience.

Re the details of MJM's post, Berto won the Tour aged 24, not 25 which rightly or wrongly will count for a lot more in forming perceptions amongst journalists and casual pundits than Nibs winning the Vuelta at a year older. Amongst English journalists, Nibali getting it dished out to him by Froome and Wiggins in the 2011 Vuelta and 2012 won't have help the perception that he's not as good as Berto.
Mrs John Murphy

I said at the start performances in 'age season' the year in which they turned that age.

Also Contador's GT performance after 24 goes like this (you can't count voided results)

1,1,1,1,1,4,WD

Nibs

6,3,1,2,7,3,1,2,1

Podiums

TDF

Contador: 2 (2 wins)
Nibali:  2 (1 win, 1 3rd)

Giro

Contador: 1 (1 win)
Nibali: 3 (1 win, 1 2nd, 1 3rd)

Vuelta

Contador:  2 (2 wins)
Nibali: 2 (1 win, 1 2nd)

Classics:

Contador: 3rd Fleche-Wallone

Nibali: 2nd LBL
         3rd MSR

So the argument that minor races don't count because if the TDF is all that counts then Dertie has 2 to Nibs' 1

If we go over the last two years the last 5 GTs

Contador:

4-WD

Nibali:

1-2-1
SlowRower

Mrs John Murphy wrote:
I said at the start performances in 'age season' the year in which they turned that age.


Fair point.

Mrs John Murphy wrote:
Also Contador's GT performance after 24 goes like this (you can't count voided results)


In terms of how perceptions are formed then the voided results have to be considered. Perceptions were made in 2007/8/9 before anything got voided.

Obviously, in an overall assessment of Berto vs Nibs as a rider then minor results and voided results have to be taken into account, but the "Berto is the best stage race rider of his generation" line will persist, even if he simply got there first by dint of doping, being older and simply maturing earlier than Nibs. It could be that Berto's best years were behind him at an age when Nibs' were still in front of him. Time will tell.
Mrs John Murphy

Well Contador rode for Brunyeel 2007-2010, so he was was easily adopted by the 3wfs when it was clear that Danielson, Hincapie etc weren't going to do it.

I suspect had he still been riding for LSW, or had he been at Caisse, SD etc the coverage would have been different.

The media were looking for the 'next big thing'. After Contador won his 1st TDF people were talking about how he could win 10 in a row,

For the likes of Harmon, Contador was seen as the heir to Armstrong and annointed by Hog.

Nibali on the other hand was seen as the second best rider on the Liquigas team behind Basso.

However, the point that I am trying to make is that relatively speaking there is very little in the palmares that separates the two.

When they have gone head to head:

2008 Giro

Contador 1st, Nibali 11th (riding in support of Franco Pellizotti)

2009 TdF

Contador 1st, Nibali 6th (co-leader with Kreuziger)

2014 TDF - first meeting for years.

Nibali 1st, Contador WD when trailing.

If we are including voided results then Denis Menchov wants a word in the debate.
SlowRower

If one is to be truly objective, other than Giro 2011, Berto hasn't looked dominant since 2009 but by then his reputation was formed. Nibs may ultimately surpass him in terms of high profile achievements.
mazda

Surely their best contest, although ultimately one-sided was the mighty 2011 Giro ?
I'm sure Nibs only lost second to Scarponi while trying to attack Contador, as you would expect, but my memory coud be playing tricks on me.
mr shifter

This is a copy of my post on the GT Vuelta thread Second week page 5.
My comments to some things being said there, that may apply here.

mr shifter  Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:32 am  
SlowRower wrote:
Bartali wrote:

Notwithstanding the mystic meg prediction, the overaching point is well made. (1) Nibali was inundated with questions and the press was full of comment devaluing his lead ... even though he had created a bigger lead than Berties before everyone fell off.  No disrespect to Bertie (its hardly his fault), but we do have a strangely skewed media who IMO are anti Italian and anti East European.

I think the differences in perception re Berto and Nibali may be due to the subtlety that Berto has shown dominant GT form (i.e. winning) pretty much from the start of his career, (2)whereas Nibs has been good since his debut but only started dominating GTs 4 years later in his career than did Berto.

Thus, the perception is that Berto is a "better" rider than Nibs, with Nibs not quite good enough to win at the very highest level. So Berto winning is because he's good and that's what's expected, whereas Nibs winning must be due to something else. You should be thankful that the main "something else" picked on is the lack of opposition rather than the non-trivial improvement in relative performance levels since he joined Astana. Smile

You may be right about the Spanish vs Italian thing, but in my experience, Anglo journalists are fairly equitable with their dislike/distrust of Western Eurpoean Johnny Foreigners. South Americans and East Europeans are definitely lower down their scale, though.

One does wonder what those Spanish boys had on their rest day BBQs though. At least Horner wasn't around to invite.

(1) I don't think the Press watched the same TDF race that I did or better still they didn't understand the Strategy being employed there, about putting pressure on the Favourites before the mountains.
It was beautiful to watch in the last few miles of stage 2 that Vincenzo Nibali attacked and won the stage by a couple of seconds to put a little pressure on his rivals. (well just enough to make them think)
When on stage 5 they became more conscious of this pressure in the rain  and then he attacked again in such style and bike handling to finish the stage with 2 minutes plus on his main rivals. No they can't let him gain more time before the mountains, so that is a bit more worry to play on their minds (pressure) and the rest is now history.

(I have to remind you that I am a least favourite of Vinokourov since his days at that shithouse Team Deutsche Telekom and this forum didn't agree with me till he was proved to be another scumbag)

(2) A rider with talent can mature with experience and become one of the Great Champions and I watched Alberto Contador early in his career as a pretty good time trialist and mountain climber in his 4 years at Team ONCE.
He only became a GT winner as a member of Team Discovery Channel and again more GT wins as an Astana team member.

Vincenzo Nibali is only a couple of years younger than Contador and both now ride on teams with dubious connections but it will be interesting to see them fighting for the same GT prize.
IMO - Forget the Dauphine as Nibali was only there to gauge his form and not to put the limelight on himself by winning it.

Be Lucky
Mrs John Murphy

as Prentice Steffen once said

Quote:
Second, please understand that this is about perception rather than reality.


Hence Contador being seen as a superior rider to Nibali. The reality doesn't bare it out.

The thing about Dertie's peak years is that they are largely pre-Biopassport.

There is the argument that the biopassport has resulted in a dialling back of doping and hence the drop off in the performances of some riders.

So if you accept a levelling of the playing field on the basis that while you can ride for Mr 60% you can't ride at 60% anymore, then the contemporary performances suggest that Nibali is the better rider.

You can say that Nibali's results are padded by the Giro, but then you can argue that Contador's performances are padded by the Vuelta.
mr shifter

Mrs John Murphy wrote:

You can say that Nibali's results are padded by the Giro, but then you can argue that Contador's performances are padded by the Vuelta.
That is to be expected so no problem.

My point of view that I brought over from the GT threads is that this years Tour de France (2014) had a little more than performances.
I think that the Astana set up, did some homework about the potential GC podium contenders where they applied something more to Nibali's performance.
The strategy they employed put the other contenders in a quandary about their own strategies in the forthcoming stages and this seems to have worked.
I look forward to both these riders coming head to head in another GT, preferably on neutral grounds with the "Passport" in place.      Twisted Evil
Bartali

I think you are spot on Mr S.  I know Vino is not on your xmas card list Wink but he was always a crafty racer and I have no doubt his race-craft was brought to bare in July.  That said, Nibali still had to execute the plan and it was done to perfection.  Stage 2 ensured a well placed team car on stage 5 and stage 5 was attacked rather than been seen as a stage to survive.
As we are seeing in this Vuelta, it is very difficult to put a lot of time into a rider in the mountains - especially if they are limiting losses - so the 2.00 minutes gained on stage 5 was huge!

That said, Contador is also a crafty rider and, as we saw with his last Vuelta win, is one of the few to try something a bit different.  Both outstanding riders IMO .... but to my original point, the UK media is relatively anti Nibali and pro Contador IMO.  And while I take SRs point re perceptions being formed early, it is also noticeable how unforgiving the press is of (say) Vino yet forgiving of Riis and Contador himself.
mr shifter

Bartali wrote:
Mr S.  I know Vino is not on your xmas card list

Oh I'm so glad you understand that, after all the posts I made last year about him and his fraudulent team mates, none of whom are on my Xmas card list.

Is that a polite enough reply, do you think. ???
Bartali

Smile
mazda

mr shifter wrote:
Bartali wrote:
Mr S.  I know Vino is not on your xmas card list

Oh I'm so glad you understand that, after all the posts I made last year about him and his fraudulent team mates, none of whom are on my Xmas card list.

Is that a polite enough reply, do you think. ???

I think you spoilt it just a little by overelaborating.  Smile
gerry12ie

mazda wrote:
mr shifter wrote:
Bartali wrote:
Mr S.  I know Vino is not on your xmas card list

Oh I'm so glad you understand that, after all the posts I made last year about him and his fraudulent team mates, none of whom are on my Xmas card list.

Is that a polite enough reply, do you think. ???

I think you spoilt it just a little by replying  Smile


FYP Wink
mazda

So any early feelers on who is going for what next season ?

Quintana - TDF ?
Nibali - the double ? if not then which is the more likely ?
Contador - TDF seems likely

Be good if they would all agree to do Giro and Tour.
Bartali

Bertie - all three (and will win the Vuelta)
Nibali - Giro and Tour (and will win the Giro)
Quintana - doesn't matter as he won't win any
Froome - Tour (and will win the Tour)
Boogerd_Fan

Really Bart? I think Quintana is a bigger threat than that.
Nibs - Giro (but fails in Tour)
Bertie - Tour (using Bertie2009 vintage)
Quints - Vuelta (payback for Tour)

Froome and SKY have been found out.
Biosphere

Boogerd_Fan wrote:
Froome and SKY have been found out.


Allowing that there are difficulties in comparing the shorter Vuelta climbs to longer climbs elsewhere, according to the numbers, Vuelta Week 3 Froome was at the same level as 2013 Tour Froome, and it was Contador that has made a massive jump in performance compared to a year ago.
gerry12ie

I agree with BF - I think Quintana was a very easy Giro winner and can't be dismissed too easy.  Maybe the Vuelta will be his pick next year but he does tend to go very well early season and may want to defend his Giro, who knows?  Froome will definitely focus on the Tour, and I think Italians have a deep connection with the Giro so that will possibly be Nibs main focus.  The lack of a monument on Bertie's palmares is glaring so he might want to put that right either the LBL/Tour route or Vuelta/Lombardia.

Either way I reckon Contador and Saxo will think they have the measure of Froome and Sky so they will probably be anxious to take them on in July.
Bartali

We'll see.  Quintana is good .... but there are only three GTs and I wouldn't write off Froome just yet (much tho I would like to)
mazda

Biosphere wrote:
Boogerd_Fan wrote:
Froome and SKY have been found out.


Allowing that there are difficulties in comparing the shorter Vuelta climbs to longer climbs elsewhere, according to the numbers, Vuelta Week 3 Froome was at the same level as 2013 Tour Froome, and it was Contador that has made a massive jump in performance compared to a year ago.


Riis did suggest that Contador would have to train properly this year after he was comfortably beaten in 2013.
mazda

gerry12ie wrote:
I agree with BF - I think Quintana was a very easy Giro winner and can't be dismissed too easy.  Maybe the Vuelta will be his pick next year but he does tend to go very well early season and may want to defend his Giro, who knows?  


According to reports from Movistar when they were justifying their decision not to send him this year they said he will definitely be at the tour in 2015.
What is less certain is whether he will try to defend the Giro.

However Valverde has just signed a 3 year contract extension.
Who knows what clauses are in it ?
I don't recall ever seeing him as a superdomestique, dragging a team leader up the early slopes of a mountain.
Bartali

Quintana was only an easy Giro winner because he .... was only one of five riders who somehow didn't understand the descent was neutralised.  One might even say he cheated!!  Take away those minutes and I don't think it would have been as easy ... tho I suspect he would still have won.
HuwB

Nibali managed to fall off today.
Cycling on the white line in the wet. tut tut. Wink
tanya

Nibali has never beaten neither Froome or Contador in a GT when they have faced each other (and finished).

Hope we see how that battle goes next year, I really do like Nibali as well.
Bartali

That's not strictly true ... Nibali beat Froome in the 2008 TdF (and would have beaten him in the 2010 Giro had Froome not been caught cheating!) and Contador in the 2011 Giro!!
mazda

How do you figure that ?
Nibali threw everything he could at Contador in that Giro, to no avail.
Whatever your POV he either won it or was not classified.
In either case there is no room for Nibali to have finished ahead of him.

I'll grant you the 2008 TdF. Froome was Kenyan back then.
mazda

In other news.
Contador's initial target is the Giro next year.
[url]http://www1.skysports.com/cycling/news/15264/9478582/alberto-contador-announces-he-will-make-the-giro-ditalia-his-first-goal-of-2015
[/url]

And sees Quintana and Froome as his main rivals for the TdF.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/c...will-be-my-biggest-rivals-in-2015
As they do in other sports when a rival inadvertently dismisses you I guess that will be posted in the team bus as motivation for Nibali.
Bartali

mazda wrote:
How do you figure that ?
Nibali threw everything he could at Contador in that Giro, to no avail.
Whatever your POV he either won it or was not classified.
In either case there is no room for Nibali to have finished ahead of him.


Err ... because Bertie finished and was then disqualified for cheating.  So Nibali wins that battle.
Biosphere

Did Contador ever have to put up with this crap from the regime?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/n...-injury-and-doubts-about-his-form

Mind you if he was sponsored by the Russian regime, he'd probably have to pretend to be dropped in the Urals by a bare chested Putin Shocked
mr shifter

mazda wrote:


Froome was Kenyan back then.

He still is, no matter how many passports he has.  Shocked

Like any other Dual Passport holder.
Robbie McEwen said he had two passports because traveling around Europe was easier with a UK passport than with his Australian Passport.
He would never race as a UK person though.  

Sciandri (born in England) and Duffield would state (as he commentated the TOB) that he must know the roads in Lancashire because he was born there.
His family moved him at 18 months to California where he was educated.
I would think he has 3 passports, ie UK, Italian and USA.  Exclamation  
I would annoy people (as you know I do) when I always described him as a 3rd rate Italian Pro Rider.
I based my statement with the fact he could not get a place on the Italian Team (which he dearly wanted) either as a leader or a domestic so the next level is 3rd.
At that time he could become a Big Fish in a small pond and got an Olympic Bronze.

Froome however is the opposite as the British Team have made him a Big Fish and wherever he comes from, they havn't  got a team to support him. (Is that Kenya or S. Africa)
I don't know how many passports he has ?

Be Lucky. Sorry I've been Off Topic.
Mrs John Murphy

Biosphere wrote:
Did Contador ever have to put up with this crap from the regime?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/n...-injury-and-doubts-about-his-form

Mind you if he was sponsored by the Russian regime, he'd probably have to pretend to be dropped in the Urals by a bare chested Putin Shocked


I would imagine not as Dertie was riding in the Hog years when the team was less Kazakh and more Disco-lite.

As for next year - we need to wait for the drug tests to come back and the bribes to be paid before knowing who will be lining up where.

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