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smarauder68

2012 Vuelta Odds

Anybody seen odds yet? I haven't...

I'm guessing Froome is a big favorite...maybe even odds or 4/5?

Based on Cobo's form in the tour I can't see him contending.

Contador will probably be 2nd favorite at 3 or 4-1 but hard to fathom him being competitive so early after his suspension.

What about the disappointing Anton?

Who will seriously contest it?
Fontfroide

For future reference http://www.oddschecker.com/  they have points and KOM as well.  But not very reliably.

From BetFair, now

Contador 13/20
Froome 157/50
J Rod 133/10
Cobo 25
Anton 66
Mollema 66
Uran 70
De Gendt 75
Henao 85
GEsink 94
VDB 94
Valverde 104
Quntana 104
Cunego 237
ullrichfan

Froome was 7/2 but is now generally 3/1 everywhere.  Contador is the big odds-on favourite.  I think Froome is a good bet as he will certainly be better in the time trial and should be able to hold on to Contador's coat tails in the mountains.  Anton is about 20/1.  Rodriguez third favourite at about 9/1.
Slapshot 3

I think the big thing with this Vuelta is freshness, Froome has a GT in his legs already, Berto doesn't, either way it'll be interesting
smarauder68

Fontfroide wrote:
For future reference http://www.oddschecker.com/  they have points and KOM as well.  But not very reliably.

From BetFair, now

Contador 13/20
Froome 157/50
J Rod 133/10
Cobo 25
Anton 66
Mollema 66
Uran 70
De Gendt 75
Henao 85
GEsink 94
VDB 94
Valverde 104
Quntana 104
Cunego 237


I can't see Contador being ready to shake Froome in any stage. Contador was already declining when he got suspended...Whether or not he was in decline or simply off the bad meat, his form in the 2011 TDF was nowhere near Froome's form now. Unless the long summer ruins saps Froome, I can't see anyone touching him.

Mollema looks like a good longshot.
Slapshot 3

smarauder68 wrote:
Fontfroide wrote:
For future reference http://www.oddschecker.com/  they have points and KOM as well.  But not very reliably.

From BetFair, now

Contador 13/20
Froome 157/50
J Rod 133/10
Cobo 25
Anton 66
Mollema 66
Uran 70
De Gendt 75
Henao 85
GEsink 94
VDB 94
Valverde 104
Quntana 104
Cunego 237


I can't see Contador being ready to shake Froome in any stage. Contador was already declining when he got suspended...Whether or not he was in decline or simply off the bad meat, his form in the 2011 TDF was nowhere near Froome's form now. Unless the long summer ruins saps Froome, I can't see anyone touching him.

Mollema looks like a good longshot.


Again in 2011 Contador already had a monster of a Giro in his legs and only finished 3:57 back in 5th...makes a big difference
MS

A fresh Contador will toy with Froome just like he does with everyone else. Expect carnage. He will be on a mission and he has a good squad surrounding him

Nice GC field, though, and a really nice course. I will be shocked if this isn't the best GT of the season. Just don't downgrade it like the 2011 Giro because Contador walks away with it. I got to see the "new and improved" and the more "humane" and competitive version this year and it sucked.
MS

Does Euskaltel's UCI ProTeam status for next season pretty much rest on Anton doing something in the Vuelta?
Slapshot 3

MS wrote:
A fresh Contador will toy with Froome just like he does with everyone else. Expect carnage. He will be on a mission and he has a good squad surrounding him

Nice GC field, though, and a really nice course. I will be shocked if this isn't the best GT of the season. Just don't downgrade it like the 2011 Giro because Contador walks away with it. I got to see the "new and improved" and the more "humane" and competitive version this year and it sucked.


The bold bit above.....says it all!!
Bartali

Don't bank on it ... I think the two of them will be prepared very differently and that will create a very uneven playing field.
gerry12ie

I'm not fully convinced Sky will be as united behind Froome as they were for Wiggins.  Everything seems to suggest a straight shootout between Contador and Froome and if that's the case I wouldn't back against a course and distance winner, so Contador for me.  

*might look for odds on Cobo to finish ahead of Froome*
smarauder68

Bartali wrote:
Don't bank on it ... I think the two of them will be prepared very differently and that will create a very uneven playing field.


Do you think Froome's form and motivation will just evaporate in 3 weeks since the Olympics?
Bartali

Not at all Scott ... I think he'll be exceptionally well prepared!!  IMO it's Bertie who might be more conservative in that department.

I'm liking de Gendt to spring a surprise at those odds and with time bonuses back on the agenda JRod should not be ignored. And Talansky at 150-1 for an e/w bet??
ullrichfan

If Froome can beat Contador, teams will be queuing up with big cheque books to lure him away from Sky next year.  I would think that must be great motivation.
Boogerd_Fan

Will de Gendt have the goods in the mountains?!?!?!

He did great on Stelvio - admittedly his mountain training ride! And the Giro was quite light on MTFs and had enough TT km for de Gendt to be close enough prior to the Stelvio stage to get in contention for podium!

I am not sure he's ready to empty himself like that again - he was really poor at Eneco Tour. The number of MTFs or hill finishes at this Vuelta will be too much for him imo. Great for JRod though Wink

Froomey.. I don't know but i think Bertie will crack him. Not sure when or where, but i dont see Froome having as strong mental capacity as Bwadlee for dealing with the pressure of leading a team or racing smart to win.

Personally, i'm hoping Mollema or Gesink do something to salvage their year. Without really lighting the touch paper (he attacked a few times last year) Mollema rode a great Vuelta in '11... i'm hoping for a repeat this year. The amount of MTFs could favour Gesink, but he really needs to prove he could even be in the top 10 contention by week 3 first.. before i even think about any chances to win this. Both were in the front group @ San Sebastian though, so looks like they are even better shape than they were in July!
smarauder68

I'm adding my money to my online account just so  I can invest more in Froome.  He was the best man in the 11 Vuelta and got shafted by his own team. Probably beats Wiggo in France too if they raced on seperate teams.

Contador won't be able to find his old form this soon back from the suspension. Rodriquez and Mollema will be serious contenders but I think Froome will take 2 minutes off them in the time trials and hold the advantage til the end.
Boogerd_Fan

there is just 40km of TT and Mollema is no slouch against the clock. Youre probably right about JRod though. He'll be hoping that the 2min he loses to Froomey and other TT specialists will be won back in time bonuses and uphill sprints.
MS

Some of you are making a large mistake in assessing Froome based upon two GT performances when he did not have the pressure of leadership or the leader's jersey. It's a totally different ball game when you have to feel that pressure. This is one reason, beyond the innate talent gap, that Contador will work him over. He's been there before and we've all seen him work over guys more experienced and tougher than Froome. I think next year might be the year for Froome to chase the Giro or Vuelta, when I assume Contador will not be there.
MS

smarauder68 wrote:
I'm adding my money to my online account just so  I can invest more in Froome.  He was the best man in the 11 Vuelta and got shafted by his own team. Probably beats Wiggo in France too if they raced on seperate teams.

Contador won't be able to find his old form this soon back from the suspension. Rodriquez and Mollema will be serious contenders but I think Froome will take 2 minutes off them in the time trials and hold the advantage til the end.


He wasn't the best man at last year's Vuelta, the Angliru proved who was strongest.
smarauder68

MS wrote:
Some of you are making a large mistake in assessing Froome based upon two GT performances when he did not have the pressure of leadership or the leader's jersey. It's a totally different ball game when you have to feel that pressure. This is one reason, beyond the innate talent gap, that Contador will work him over. He's been there before and we've all seen him work over guys more experienced and tougher than Froome. I think next year might be the year for Froome to chase the Giro or Vuelta, when I assume Contador will not be there.


Why would you make the mistake of assuming Contador will just snap back to his 2009 form?
Boogerd_Fan

Umm.. he won't need his 2009 form to win this race.

His consistency over the last 5 years - barring drug bans! - means he has a great edge over Froome. He has been and done it all before.
MS

smarauder68 wrote:
MS wrote:
Some of you are making a large mistake in assessing Froome based upon two GT performances when he did not have the pressure of leadership or the leader's jersey. It's a totally different ball game when you have to feel that pressure. This is one reason, beyond the innate talent gap, that Contador will work him over. He's been there before and we've all seen him work over guys more experienced and tougher than Froome. I think next year might be the year for Froome to chase the Giro or Vuelta, when I assume Contador will not be there.


Why would you make the mistake of assuming Contador will just snap back to his 2009 form?


His 2011 form will do just fine. I'm not exactly this big fan of Contador's, but I've never seen any cyclist with as violent accelerations as he has. Add to that his ability to deliver top-notch TT efforts and you have a guy who's simply in a class above the rest of the top level GC guys. Eventually, he will break Froome.
Boogerd_Fan

when they start attacking each other multiple times on the same MTF we'll see who is strongest. Based on how Froome actually attacked, then sat up/got dropped by the Nibs/Wiggo train when he was doing his poor impression of a team mate in the Pyranees - Froome won't be able to go multiple times, like Bertie can.
smarauder68

Boogerd_Fan wrote:
when they start attacking each other multiple times on the same MTF we'll see who is strongest. Based on how Froome actually attacked, then sat up/got dropped by the Nibs/Wiggo train when he was doing his poor impression of a team mate in the Pyranees - Froome won't be able to go multiple times, like Bertie can.


How do we know what Bertie has left?  Basso still hasn't dropped anybody since he came back from his suspension. Bertie peaked in 2007 and has been declining ever since. In the case of Alberto Contador, he's gonna have to show me before I believe again.  I'd be surprised if he makes the podium.

Froome sat up on team orders at least twice in the tour when he could have taken at least a minute from Wiggo and Nibs.  He'll take nearly 2 minutes off all of his foes in the Time Trial, plus you know the Sky team will win the team time trial, taking another 30 secs to a minute.  Last year in the Angrilu, he patiently waited for 4/5's of the climb before finally getting the go ahead to go it alone...I have no doubts that he could have marked Cobo the entire way up if he hadn't been so damned loyal to sideburns.
smarauder68

Ultimately, I didn't go as heavy on Froome as I should have because the best odds my site would offer was just 5/2 or 2.50 - I made 2 small cover wagers to give me some hope if Froomey crashes out.
MS

smarauder68 wrote:
Boogerd_Fan wrote:
when they start attacking each other multiple times on the same MTF we'll see who is strongest. Based on how Froome actually attacked, then sat up/got dropped by the Nibs/Wiggo train when he was doing his poor impression of a team mate in the Pyranees - Froome won't be able to go multiple times, like Bertie can.


How do we know what Bertie has left?  Basso still hasn't dropped anybody since he came back from his suspension. Bertie peaked in 2007 and has been declining ever since. In the case of Alberto Contador, he's gonna have to show me before I believe again.  I'd be surprised if he makes the podium.

Froome sat up on team orders at least twice in the tour when he could have taken at least a minute from Wiggo and Nibs.  He'll take nearly 2 minutes off all of his foes in the Time Trial, plus you know the Sky team will win the team time trial, taking another 30 secs to a minute.  Last year in the Angrilu, he patiently waited for 4/5's of the climb before finally getting the go ahead to go it alone...I have no doubts that he could have marked Cobo the entire way up if he hadn't been so damned loyal to sideburns.


Contador is 29 years old. Basso is over five years older. Contador was excellent in last year's Giro. If I were to pick out a "peak," I would go with Verbier in 2009.

I have no idea how you figure Froome will put two minutes into Contador in a TT. I would not be surprised to see Contador pip him.

Finally, Cobo is nowhere near the level of Contador.
smarauder68

MS wrote:
smarauder68 wrote:
Boogerd_Fan wrote:
when they start attacking each other multiple times on the same MTF we'll see who is strongest. Based on how Froome actually attacked, then sat up/got dropped by the Nibs/Wiggo train when he was doing his poor impression of a team mate in the Pyranees - Froome won't be able to go multiple times, like Bertie can.


How do we know what Bertie has left?  Basso still hasn't dropped anybody since he came back from his suspension. Bertie peaked in 2007 and has been declining ever since. In the case of Alberto Contador, he's gonna have to show me before I believe again.  I'd be surprised if he makes the podium.

Froome sat up on team orders at least twice in the tour when he could have taken at least a minute from Wiggo and Nibs.  He'll take nearly 2 minutes off all of his foes in the Time Trial, plus you know the Sky team will win the team time trial, taking another 30 secs to a minute.  Last year in the Angrilu, he patiently waited for 4/5's of the climb before finally getting the go ahead to go it alone...I have no doubts that he could have marked Cobo the entire way up if he hadn't been so damned loyal to sideburns.


Contador is 29 years old. Basso is over five years older. Contador was excellent in last year's Giro. If I were to pick out a "peak," I would go with Verbier in 2009.

I have no idea how you figure Froome will put two minutes into Contador in a TT. I would not be surprised to see Contador pip him.

Finally, Cobo is nowhere near the level of Contador.


Well, maybe I'm presumptuous, but I assume Bertie will riding clean and that alone should see him struggle.
Bartali

smarauder68 wrote:
Basso still hasn't dropped anybody since he came back from his suspension.



Link


Fast forward to 31 minutes .... and you'll see the 2011 TdF champion dropped like a brick!!
Bartali

smarauder68 wrote:
Well, maybe I'm presumptuous, but I assume Bertie will riding clean and that alone should see him struggle.
 That's exactly what I was alluding too earlier.  Their 'preparation' might be very different.
smarauder68

Bartali wrote:
smarauder68 wrote:
Well, maybe I'm presumptuous, but I assume Bertie will riding clean and that alone should see him struggle.
 That's exactly what I was alluding too earlier.  Their 'preparation' might be very different.


I assume Contador's Microdosing will be on the safe side where as we all know he got away with murder from 2006-2010.

How do you like my cover selctions of Mollema and Rodriquez?

If they don't win, maybe Jimmy Walker will...he leads the PGA Golf Tourney at the half way point. I got him at 70-1.
Bartali

I certainly think Rodriquez is worth a shout.  He's a bit like de luca when it comes to stealing bonus seconds ... and the ITT is short
Beasley

The first two weeks are kind to J-Rod. Six stages play to his favour, by my count; plenty of opportunities to rake up the seconds.

As ever, pivotal he has a cushion over the 'proper climbers' before stage 14 and doesn't get obliterated in the ITT.

Overall, a more than decent punt at 10/1
smarauder68

What are the current Vuelta Odds looking like now?

I would guess that AC, Froome and J.Rod would all be about 2-1 or 5/2...4 MTF left and there will be blood.
smarauder68

I just checked and pretty interesting:

Contador EVEN
Froome 15/8
JROD 9/2
Valverde 33-1
Gesink 150-1
Roche 250-1


Kinda surprised that JROD is 9-2 at this point....Might be worth another punt for me.  Contador can't seem to shake him.

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